{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"RYSD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"6130d5c5-30dc-4321-8f7d-664e99959fc2","symbol":"RYSD","name":"NatWest Group plc","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Banks - Regional"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":13,"completedEpisodes":13,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":14.1,"averageExpectedMove":12.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":13,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":46.2,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":-0.3,"confidenceLow":23.2,"confidenceHigh":70.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":13,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":61.5,"averageReturn":5.3,"medianReturn":5.0,"confidenceLow":35.5,"confidenceHigh":82.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":76.9,"averageReturn":15.3,"medianReturn":10.3,"confidenceLow":49.7,"confidenceHigh":91.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":13},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":13},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":13},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":13},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":13},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":13},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":13},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":13},{"week":9,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":13},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":13},{"week":11,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":13},{"week":12,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":13},{"week":13,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":13},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":13},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":13},{"week":16,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":13},{"week":17,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":13},{"week":18,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":13},{"week":19,"averageReturn":10.0,"sample":13},{"week":20,"averageReturn":12.3,"sample":13},{"week":21,"averageReturn":13.3,"sample":13},{"week":22,"averageReturn":13.8,"sample":13},{"week":23,"averageReturn":14.4,"sample":13},{"week":24,"averageReturn":15.5,"sample":13},{"week":25,"averageReturn":14.4,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":2.7,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":8.8,"sample":1},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned","tone":"positive","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned upward","use":"The advance retains underlying support while price structure and Market Dynamics remain intact.","confirm":"The advance remains supported. Reclassify it only if the broader Market Dynamics path weakens or price structure breaks.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"distribution","zoneContext":"Price is inside distribution conditions, but Market Dynamics still offers support. Extension can persist; a rollover has not been confirmed.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":80.0,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Trend participation","title":"Let confirmation support the position, then manage extension","tone":"positive","approach":"This is most useful for holding or selectively adding to an established upward case. Risk should still tighten as price becomes extended; confirmation is support, not immunity from reversal.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 80.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 7.3% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.0% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-02-13","price":6.447234}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":7.604}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[3.7958,3.8097,3.6195,3.7109,3.7561,3.866,3.818,3.9343,4.0377,4.0663,4.1789,4.2712,4.3903,4.382,4.502,4.6377,4.5417,4.4439,4.4955,4.5315,4.1512,4.5629,4.6506,4.8131,4.9534,4.7725,5.0845,5.4094,5.066,5.0571,5.2814,5.2491,4.6531,4.7529,5.1122,5.3099,5.3917,5.5685,5.7681,5.9582,5.9449,5.9867,5.7814,5.6693,5.7111,5.2985,5.4126,5.4506,5.6731,5.6027,5.8678,6.1305,6.3101,5.7229,5.6727,5.9508,5.7036,5.7886,6.0803,5.9933,5.9219,6.3352,6.426,6.5766,6.5728,6.3642,6.988,6.8355,6.737,7.1175,7.1851,7.2913,7.1484,7.2778,7.2082,7.4323,7.3627,6.4472,6.8586,6.8355,6.4337,6.3526,6.07,6.246,6.606,7.05,7.22,6.702,6.788,6.714,6.434,6.788,6.918,6.87,7.13,7.314,7.604,7.97,7.6761,7.6366,7.8081,8.1275,8.1945,8.276],"consensus":[10.6161,36.5443,-24.4242,29.4731,24.0885,48.0368,18.12,55.448,53.0747,32.5078,58.4218,40.8743,47.4613,26.3812,64.519,62.3442,8.4555,0.0,37.6525,23.9145,-61.8574,56.4777,42.6211,59.2781,61.5007,0.0,74.0079,78.5767,0.0,28.208,58.5703,0.0,-58.6442,-8.5421,39.4841,48.8881,40.267,63.4445,67.4192,57.1765,29.0225,39.6145,0.0,-16.1136,16.5778,-51.9346,-14.2291,0.0,29.2537,0.0,50.7174,57.733,60.9742,-35.3651,-21.2258,33.7823,-39.1392,22.3309,49.7749,0.0,0.0,57.0229,44.5398,51.0795,21.5333,0.0,67.8004,11.0997,0.0,65.101,45.744,50.2914,13.4562,53.3102,17.3998,57.1429,13.4908,-65.4742,12.5016,-17.633,-62.4209,-32.7081,-61.3361,-8.8059,25.9524,51.0827,48.5224,-25.1987,19.5835,0.0,-47.6046,28.5003,27.3635,0.0,47.841,31.5073,48.7822,62.8926,10.5138,27.9575,43.5236,58.2864,36.9917,50.6897],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[65.9349,-40.12,-17.0624,39.0274,-34.2042,25.1719,51.6505,0.0,0.0,62.1461,41.3193,54.4578,8.5932,0.0,74.7182,0.1592,0.0,75.4669,54.1841,54.177,1.7583,59.4357,20.7028,61.6048,6.5506,-58.2866,16.7064,-7.6428,-56.6481,-34.5712,-61.6677,-4.9025,29.5675,50.3458,52.9857,-39.6005,24.2834,0.0,-44.2962,35.8274,34.4401,0.0,55.9203,25.2151,50.8818,72.2366,8.2138,24.7605,37.8082,55.9905,26.7101,52.3516],"force":[59.3096,-81.8884,-29.7069,65.1454,-63.063,44.5344,62.2811,0.0,0.0,59.4126,42.8238,38.7181,4.1693,0.0,67.7606,25.1617,0.0,55.7935,23.3259,30.4842,20.3344,55.1503,6.8164,68.1278,12.5147,-94.0806,57.1683,-16.3144,-83.6284,-18.5339,-60.3619,-30.1735,57.2489,70.0573,44.4424,-51.394,26.7703,0.0,-61.2194,46.2157,28.1548,0.0,41.0066,16.3064,32.2883,44.7285,23.3608,5.3903,47.1206,74.1675,21.8051,33.5987],"direction":[56.4937,-3.2998,-19.926,5.3857,-27.6907,3.2245,38.6983,0.0,0.0,49.4608,49.446,56.0482,54.6809,0.0,59.9228,49.5041,0.0,59.9025,52.1112,59.9989,50.9615,44.9953,30.9223,44.1973,39.9977,-53.2555,24.2087,-29.9924,-53.8701,-40.7032,-61.653,-52.3149,0.5337,38.3715,46.3357,-9.9716,9.0789,0.0,-41.6609,7.4726,18.7108,0.0,43.4891,49.5561,58.164,65.1882,56.113,47.7305,47.4861,49.5666,59.5897,60.9982],"intensity":[71.1538,98.0769,96.1538,69.2308,63.4615,59.6154,76.9231,63.4615,21.1538,92.3077,78.8462,23.0769,48.0769,65.3846,98.0769,90.3846,13.4615,78.8462,55.7692,7.6923,23.0769,50.0,3.8462,44.2308,84.6154,100.0,82.6923,1.9231,78.8462,9.6154,67.3077,65.3846,76.9231,90.3846,88.4615,92.3077,57.6923,51.9231,59.6154,67.3077,67.3077,5.7692,42.3077,48.0769,63.4615,69.2308,59.6154,57.6923,59.6154,63.4615,92.3077,5.7692],"confirmation":[87.3854,58.6995,75.1142,57.0196,81.3288,53.1126,84.2805,27.5256,26.9325,86.2421,82.2495,83.9172,52.5273,29.8759,89.5895,7.9813,6.9741,88.3907,81.8263,83.4304,7.7924,85.022,51.5671,86.5525,6.3001,89.9331,33.1289,51.0879,88.709,78.0062,87.5928,9.3217,54.6507,84.936,83.3348,33.4364,74.4141,25.8019,83.6988,54.8817,76.6726,27.0665,82.9777,77.7149,83.0756,87.4297,32.02,53.6407,82.1243,87.1706,79.5312,91.6745],"persistence":[25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0],"assessmentRisk":[19.399,40.0623,22.1101,47.2223,29.4499,1.0403,21.7096,9.8516,35.6503,19.9288,21.0935,23.4132,38.6935,8.2166,15.1595,33.4456,25.9045,17.2503,10.6726,22.7757,40.1141,2.9001,3.4984,0.8701,30.0221,16.4422,43.8137,38.9505,18.426,2.4255,18.6746,43.1597,10.5632,22.4139,25.5656,53.9495,12.4079,32.4782,25.6777,0.0027,6.9931,27.1742,25.4362,32.5494,25.0627,18.5296,43.161,28.1119,15.6204,1.5696,30.7163,24.5643],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":50.7,"control":52.4,"force":33.6,"direction":61.0,"confirmation":91.7,"persistence":100.0,"assessmentRisk":24.6,"intensity":5.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+50.7","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+52.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+33.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+61.0","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"92/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"68.1","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"18.9","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"97%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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