{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ALD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"63a6e0a5-9425-44f2-89df-5c3369c0a1b0","symbol":"ALD","name":"Honeywell International Inc.","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Conglomerates"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.1,"averageExpectedMove":6.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-1.0,"medianReturn":-1.5,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-0.3,"medianReturn":-3.0,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":64.3,"averageReturn":3.9,"medianReturn":3.9,"confidenceLow":38.8,"confidenceHigh":83.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.2,"medianReturn":-3.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":1},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Positive support; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is positive while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the improvement as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is constructive, but a positive price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains positive and has strengthened across the recent completed path. A slight weekly pause does not yet change the broader constructive reading.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":43.8,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 43.8% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.3% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.1% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-03-06","price":208.639435},{"date":"2026-03-20","price":197.757919},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":199.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-29","price":210.871262},{"date":"2026-06-19","price":211.18335},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":212.820816},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":211.375763}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[163.1356,168.9986,161.7826,166.8157,163.767,170.3155,166.058,178.1629,183.6921,177.315,173.7792,184.0078,198.1709,200.3586,200.2675,195.2084,198.9001,200.0396,200.9055,200.7232,193.3397,198.3076,196.1199,197.8063,184.2697,176.7677,184.6344,186.8261,181.2669,178.2062,179.4231,179.6444,166.8297,156.9099,159.8785,160.9479,173.5413,174.5185,185.3548,182.9297,184.9258,187.1084,182.0715,179.7583,180.9896,190.6994,191.1658,189.5801,177.0534,176.3445,173.0426,174.4295,178.9059,177.546,172.4085,171.2563,167.4598,168.1587,169.5942,164.7022,164.4,175.5439,174.4702,169.0155,173.7695,167.3276,167.2869,167.7137,167.4698,173.6882,168.3436,169.1768,180.2521,192.7092,192.3434,194.5788,204.2823,207.4829,209.1087,211.2083,208.6394,210.8486,197.7579,200.6761,204.2108,206.0706,204.7862,186.1469,187.3799,186.9483,190.1691,204.1092,210.8713,196.0988,200.7802,211.1833,210.091,199.0,196.0,198.3604,212.8208,206.1935,211.3758,201.3],"consensus":[-10.3001,39.4347,-47.3331,27.3126,-28.735,40.6613,-19.862,62.41,66.1993,0.0,12.4552,67.0087,71.0683,57.3393,44.2157,8.038,43.0863,23.2508,27.1055,28.5823,-31.5669,35.677,-11.3988,22.9273,-58.8423,-70.5485,11.2035,0.0,-46.929,-31.3845,-10.8328,-30.7943,-70.0841,-57.9982,-35.2423,-25.4669,36.8061,14.6403,58.9476,12.1738,29.5821,40.947,-11.7537,-12.1264,10.3863,55.1738,36.2664,24.8443,-52.2119,-34.2636,-50.0541,-17.8114,19.1068,-21.7317,-46.1214,-36.2105,-52.9421,-25.7898,-13.9026,-66.0838,-32.7187,48.4643,0.0,-33.4561,36.5676,-47.9944,-19.144,-9.3956,-20.7976,50.3295,-31.297,0.0,69.0956,80.0557,45.3431,55.4254,81.2544,55.7007,53.9538,58.7531,9.2926,44.1264,-42.754,15.2147,28.3558,20.0204,15.2363,-60.4901,-19.3018,-29.8321,-15.7606,55.4276,55.373,-32.733,33.0344,59.0048,13.1495,-21.826,-16.5527,0.0,41.0965,-9.1551,35.0903,22.3145],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[21.124,-30.7125,-50.7146,-43.6453,-56.8333,-18.6374,-11.5193,-65.9325,-32.537,41.0492,0.0,-44.3023,32.5816,-41.006,-14.1501,-9.9369,-17.5102,46.61,-39.4612,0.0,64.6665,80.8205,45.4321,48.49,82.6437,53.041,53.2679,57.7794,1.3246,45.8273,-38.5042,28.569,38.2485,29.2658,11.1228,-50.1935,-7.8935,-22.2052,-5.1945,55.5784,60.7474,-39.908,29.0911,59.8038,15.4899,-31.2745,-15.4615,0.0,49.0883,-21.9343,24.5485,31.5832],"force":[43.0777,-28.1913,-63.8394,-22.9239,-44.7299,-1.9938,-12.0737,-84.8846,-17.2456,87.268,0.0,-58.355,58.7016,-78.4776,-8.6636,-2.8398,-15.6067,82.3647,-54.3352,0.0,96.6437,97.1366,14.9096,51.5673,92.9665,38.6062,30.5945,42.2017,40.5667,28.5189,-95.9335,17.6381,33.6958,13.9223,0.0964,-89.1599,-7.333,-11.5817,-2.4912,78.5591,54.6169,-75.8317,55.6246,85.6522,3.0515,-34.6987,-12.1409,0.0,45.8501,-29.2403,50.1944,36.2293],"direction":[0.3205,-6.854,-28.2163,-37.2039,-54.3607,-50.9611,-35.1808,-52.8274,-43.9785,29.2219,0.0,-3.2754,25.313,-34.2075,-32.3373,-17.5166,-28.2625,31.6981,-5.5108,0.0,54.4801,66.9808,66.9795,66.1075,71.301,70.9507,71.423,71.6883,57.0404,53.3308,-9.6256,1.7783,13.2355,13.8099,30.8894,-51.7792,-51.3648,-51.5845,-40.873,38.7327,49.771,-6.2519,21.4053,39.0577,22.0468,-1.8329,-20.9511,0.0,28.5674,-19.7963,36.3494,1.7825],"intensity":[30.7692,17.3077,50.0,53.8462,25.0,5.7692,7.6923,42.3077,17.3077,80.7692,61.5385,53.8462,40.3846,67.3077,61.5385,1.9231,1.9231,61.5385,50.0,17.3077,84.6154,92.3077,73.0769,69.2308,96.1538,69.2308,28.8462,21.1538,71.1538,30.7692,96.1538,78.8462,28.8462,36.5385,13.4615,100.0,96.1538,17.3077,42.3077,94.2308,96.1538,96.1538,80.7692,78.8462,67.3077,96.1538,88.4615,23.0769,98.0769,69.2308,42.3077,69.2308],"confirmation":[52.2157,52.3475,83.2288,79.0691,84.6319,52.9698,28.9359,89.7221,78.0012,84.8042,4.2783,56.6328,80.4369,84.3937,73.8828,48.5646,74.5471,85.1384,55.9261,1.1085,91.0176,94.1267,81.5809,85.7242,94.3372,85.3438,84.5638,86.3114,10.5527,81.6189,83.3668,50.4518,77.0858,74.0798,49.8249,88.3875,29.7697,77.1063,27.8463,86.4395,85.6144,58.3458,79.3196,87.6815,49.6627,52.566,73.179,26.0389,81.174,30.2369,79.8498,52.7568],"persistence":[0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[8.1176,22.708,16.8116,10.3057,22.5394,34.8942,23.5262,13.2829,15.6232,22.9137,40.1522,54.6135,30.1259,23.1952,36.1036,9.4594,33.9812,18.7291,26.2571,14.1235,14.5129,9.7511,27.3071,22.275,9.3528,21.6348,22.9023,20.5082,29.9535,7.1512,25.5544,54.3023,44.7541,44.1119,36.9582,18.0392,39.4524,34.8018,41.0041,21.3689,22.0555,55.2439,25.0499,4.3361,11.1022,26.3438,15.8272,41.8138,4.6562,38.7499,29.682,26.6194],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":22.3,"control":31.6,"force":36.2,"direction":1.8,"confirmation":52.8,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":26.6,"intensity":69.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+22.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+31.6","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+36.2","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+1.8","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"53/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.1%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.0","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"58%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}