{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UHAL-B Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"65f102f5-31bf-483a-8932-96d06f4ec40c","symbol":"UHAL-B","name":"U-Haul Holding Company","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Rental & Leasing Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":197,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","headline":"Upward price structure remains intact, but support is fading","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","take":"Treat the advance as conditional. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":10,"completedEpisodes":10,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.5,"averageExpectedMove":10.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":10,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":1.5,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":31.3,"confidenceHigh":83.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":10,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":40.0,"averageReturn":6.0,"medianReturn":-2.0,"confidenceLow":16.8,"confidenceHigh":68.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":9,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":7.0,"medianReturn":5.8,"confidenceLow":35.4,"confidenceHigh":87.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":10},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":10},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":10},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":10},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":10},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":10},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":10},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":10},{"week":9,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":10},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":10},{"week":11,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":10},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":10},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":10},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":9},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":9},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":9},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":9},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":9},{"week":19,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":9},{"week":20,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":9},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":9},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":9},{"week":23,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":9},{"week":24,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":9},{"week":25,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":9},{"week":26,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":9}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics remains positive but has weakened over four weeks","use":"The upward structure still has positive support, but renewed strength is needed to restore full confirmation.","confirm":"Treat the advance as conditional. Renewed Market Dynamics would restore confirmation; continued contraction would increase rollover risk.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.5% across 13 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":48.306125}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[67.1367,67.8515,66.1639,68.0798,70.7912,71.8442,68.0792,67.4533,67.0857,65.1287,66.589,66.8573,60.7874,62.6849,62.0292,65.3373,66.2413,65.0293,63.7866,63.7468,61.9076,64.5819,65.2381,64.3632,62.4643,66.0235,63.6971,61.1918,62.5936,57.1753,57.3137,58.6371,54.2888,53.5823,53.6221,54.0898,58.2689,56.7664,58.06,54.647,56.7565,56.6769,54.8261,54.4077,54.9255,56.529,55.6625,55.1646,55.802,51.141,51.7386,52.8441,53.5711,52.0274,53.352,52.4457,50.413,51.3401,51.36,49.127,49.9943,50.5425,48.3394,48.2497,47.0734,46.2659,47.9606,48.5886,49.3064,47.3811,47.5407,46.7224,50.4946,52.4205,53.0592,51.2031,45.5748,45.974,47.7403,47.0617,45.994,42.8705,39.8738,42.8211,44.0,47.2271,48.9256,48.8257,48.0663,48.3061,44.8193,47.0573,51.9728,51.4433,55.3497,54.84,58.77,59.29,58.94,62.29,62.55,62.58,66.02,65.19],"consensus":[56.3948,48.1786,0.0,47.6444,60.4648,43.6853,-17.3596,0.0,-9.812,-35.3567,0.0,0.0,-68.4617,0.0,-39.5226,28.0436,20.1835,0.0,-11.7779,-8.4062,-45.6624,24.488,14.598,-9.5826,-27.737,42.7173,-32.8137,-51.6678,9.941,-66.3497,-37.7931,-12.7479,-65.1753,-33.4135,-31.9015,-21.9755,36.5212,-9.6177,8.8874,-38.0506,13.6545,0.0,-38.1212,-18.8493,0.0,23.5965,-8.3949,0.0,0.0,-61.0736,-17.9136,0.0,0.0,-27.8516,19.6413,-22.1487,-52.5779,0.0,-15.4014,-55.5096,-9.0395,0.0,-48.7081,-23.8477,-43.7411,-36.6903,17.0785,0.0,15.582,-33.3399,-9.5161,-31.8235,47.0548,52.4853,40.0933,0.0,-61.4489,-18.6828,0.0,-20.8272,-24.5383,-57.8349,-69.383,0.0,-8.6331,46.4912,47.9572,16.7555,11.6545,22.6294,-50.1967,23.5842,62.9731,31.003,72.0317,30.9956,77.4841,53.8442,36.8713,64.7735,40.2434,27.9798,68.8669,29.7124],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-35.2684,20.2434,-22.2357,-52.4786,0.0,-11.9562,-57.7571,-10.9679,0.0,-45.2105,-26.054,-41.2807,-28.1642,16.4534,0.0,9.9025,-45.2967,-10.4775,-35.3703,49.8914,52.9875,35.8629,0.0,-54.5323,-11.5626,0.0,-14.101,-30.9009,-61.4453,-72.4794,0.0,-3.8186,45.7002,48.1933,4.546,3.4117,22.9675,-50.0537,32.891,54.3469,31.5207,73.286,24.3006,77.7615,56.4614,35.3557,64.2194,36.7377,17.3082,70.6091,28.0819],"force":[0.0,-34.7344,41.6988,-31.3732,-68.9451,0.0,-5.2333,-67.1069,-14.6066,0.0,-61.8972,-9.106,-44.8342,-31.6358,70.532,0.0,27.7956,-47.2206,-2.3785,-26.3717,67.0072,51.3017,26.0738,0.0,-95.643,-4.5975,0.0,-16.5344,-23.2394,-63.9295,-76.3787,0.0,-12.8446,69.8245,51.0295,1.5519,7.0683,19.0087,-74.4426,47.4576,92.5989,8.4544,82.7502,0.3574,92.2126,30.7827,5.9557,60.9445,13.2109,0.1085,67.5157,8.1203],"direction":[0.0,-14.459,3.1977,-15.4603,-41.0007,0.0,-26.6018,-44.6573,-23.7257,0.0,-43.2847,-31.8562,-45.7722,-50.0448,20.3883,0.0,13.3487,-9.76,-16.9135,-31.6643,29.5612,52.7568,54.942,0.0,-44.9294,-43.4491,0.0,-31.5805,-18.1945,-49.3555,-60.8474,0.0,-29.4764,30.7285,45.4929,43.7859,34.4484,24.8291,-33.0415,4.1046,51.6703,46.5175,62.9421,60.5314,66.6466,67.3255,60.6859,68.1418,63.5587,60.239,67.8408,58.5992],"intensity":[9.6154,28.8462,26.9231,15.3846,44.2308,17.3077,9.6154,53.8462,13.4615,5.7692,73.0769,11.5385,42.3077,44.2308,42.3077,57.6923,30.7692,57.6923,38.4615,15.3846,90.3846,82.6923,38.4615,53.8462,100.0,100.0,50.0,13.4615,26.9231,78.8462,78.8462,76.9231,63.4615,84.6154,80.7692,61.5385,57.6923,7.6923,88.4615,73.0769,96.1538,94.2308,90.3846,53.8462,90.3846,75.0,9.6154,90.3846,51.9231,28.8462,80.7692,48.0769],"confirmation":[4.5674,77.0093,52.2816,75.3674,85.3253,5.2689,50.0044,86.0823,27.9253,3.5538,84.0418,75.1484,82.068,79.7168,34.1199,25.5693,73.445,78.9096,48.5088,77.9633,83.6224,84.7516,80.4671,31.5754,88.8112,51.6916,29.7459,74.6364,75.7157,86.6379,90.3686,33.1517,4.9216,83.6003,83.4363,27.9876,27.459,75.1259,84.804,54.3417,89.1857,77.2259,91.3577,54.4202,93.2395,84.4874,56.213,88.6193,80.1074,53.6166,89.9697,40.7788],"persistence":[25.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"assessmentRisk":[43.1886,39.3962,27.9146,1.2136,21.5203,19.1284,34.6818,20.4127,7.5054,18.7221,24.6582,17.637,27.2156,31.5737,22.6695,11.7587,39.3282,52.1496,11.8043,29.5671,9.0877,23.581,29.856,49.6894,18.1379,40.3816,50.1039,37.3524,21.6937,14.7139,15.1752,45.4509,28.1047,23.7021,25.9487,40.821,40.6483,14.347,22.7929,45.3577,14.1412,26.8915,13.9658,34.4129,10.9926,22.969,27.6031,17.4426,26.1407,30.668,15.3239,29.8318],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":29.7,"control":28.1,"force":8.1,"direction":58.6,"confirmation":40.8,"persistence":100.0,"assessmentRisk":29.8,"intensity":48.1,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+29.7","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+28.1","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+8.1","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+58.6","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"41/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"72.4","detail":"Stretched positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.4%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"30.1","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"94%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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