{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CAT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"6763211b-8653-4796-a797-40bb80dca51b","symbol":"CAT","name":"Caterpillar Inc.","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":19},{"week":6,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":8.1,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":8.7,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":9.2,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":11.9,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":11.6,"sample":18},{"week":13,"averageReturn":12.0,"sample":18},{"week":14,"averageReturn":10.9,"sample":18},{"week":15,"averageReturn":11.6,"sample":18},{"week":16,"averageReturn":11.9,"sample":18},{"week":17,"averageReturn":13.7,"sample":18},{"week":18,"averageReturn":14.6,"sample":18},{"week":19,"averageReturn":15.5,"sample":18},{"week":20,"averageReturn":16.8,"sample":18},{"week":21,"averageReturn":17.0,"sample":18},{"week":22,"averageReturn":19.6,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":20.3,"sample":18},{"week":24,"averageReturn":23.9,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":25.8,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":28.2,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":21.4,"averageReturn":10.9,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 21.4% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 10.9% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 85.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 7 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.4 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.7% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-09-27","price":345.07019},{"date":"2025-06-06","price":306.135132}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":778.570007}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[303.6423,309.9783,289.508,303.6423,322.163,345.0702,349.9441,359.2044,354.818,349.3478,343.9656,361.0906,357.1763,370.3869,379.194,367.4512,354.7299,346.9014,342.0085,342.9871,337.1157,366.9619,381.1163,354.5953,346.2461,330.5299,323.163,323.6542,312.3582,305.4824,302.5356,301.5533,257.8429,248.0203,259.3163,265.6463,279.4717,284.4095,309.5915,298.2349,307.6165,306.1351,307.1227,310.0853,325.8858,333.2923,342.1801,354.5243,363.4595,366.9305,354.5342,349.5757,367.9222,354.0383,355.03,364.9471,391.2272,395.1941,421.4742,423.4576,456.6797,450.2224,498.4782,477.0865,476.589,474.5991,493.5034,513.4028,507.433,489.0261,494.9959,503.4531,526.3373,554.1964,535.7495,550.7145,603.5911,656.4677,643.4979,625.5399,594.612,606.5841,586.6307,607.5817,626.5375,677.2192,646.89,712.2,759.4,763.2,764.6,766.0,753.2,798.4,788.2,861.5962,889.7372,856.0079,831.2597,778.57,783.2,708.2,731.2,742.4],"consensus":[0.0,35.3884,-51.1262,26.3156,53.585,78.1521,54.1471,73.0141,28.551,13.1576,0.0,51.1023,9.452,67.6225,61.9437,0.0,-28.4275,-23.4846,-36.1334,-20.317,-51.4233,59.3451,58.0928,-31.3211,-22.2033,-66.6934,-56.9559,-24.8999,-51.0104,-61.002,-51.0736,-50.0995,-84.675,-65.8253,-19.4126,-11.0417,23.485,9.4896,50.3089,0.0,36.408,25.5316,12.6983,31.4961,60.6165,55.3623,54.2868,72.3106,70.0947,32.2551,0.0,0.0,67.198,-16.7075,20.4802,49.0728,75.056,43.3783,79.0421,45.9865,84.4828,40.0663,84.6883,14.1352,28.6548,29.0655,60.5987,73.8701,17.8647,0.0,38.6287,39.6209,57.5531,74.726,8.0365,68.563,74.5815,84.9042,20.4531,0.0,-16.9673,30.7875,-33.1553,35.3729,55.215,75.8015,0.0,77.3352,80.5946,39.1958,34.7989,49.463,0.0,41.0676,40.6341,68.8185,38.9003,36.4188,31.6208,-38.8008,0.0,-64.9287,-9.1156,-9.6173],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[71.0778,-21.6354,23.9282,54.6203,74.9681,31.183,88.1283,38.7805,85.8782,35.0949,84.5456,7.233,19.6729,21.9022,70.1168,73.2066,1.513,0.0,54.288,59.271,66.3621,75.5668,9.9817,67.803,87.5009,88.5224,16.0808,0.0,-14.0199,40.1814,-23.1153,39.298,51.0507,78.6865,0.0,81.0877,84.6731,30.1729,24.4697,54.2115,0.0,37.3074,51.5617,79.4474,19.5022,40.18,36.4366,-40.4358,0.0,-53.5476,-0.2205,-1.4428],"force":[86.1198,-53.0128,6.3071,39.6148,92.1284,31.9249,75.1015,22.6913,94.6954,1.7968,95.1001,31.8888,4.3516,3.2875,70.953,85.1445,16.9893,0.0,21.7291,29.2004,50.9146,89.5119,29.4972,84.6768,64.8487,95.9114,43.1209,0.0,-77.6613,42.885,-84.4462,61.0141,78.7916,96.1253,0.0,93.7873,94.2099,16.7372,9.0873,26.1936,0.0,25.4555,10.8221,56.0237,29.8985,1.1565,2.3128,-57.4546,0.0,-91.9801,-30.4718,-11.9866],"direction":[49.2485,-14.8569,26.6633,49.4884,62.962,65.4969,71.4726,70.8615,75.5932,73.0832,77.4144,71.4302,62.4959,60.3615,42.325,66.5752,61.448,0.0,32.8034,24.607,52.2273,63.2038,55.4384,57.9218,66.7684,72.9068,70.8599,0.0,-23.0172,11.4106,-7.9933,12.5721,43.1337,57.9875,0.0,61.2952,66.2081,65.5494,64.9692,60.6571,0.0,56.5165,49.4396,65.8103,67.4995,58.9597,47.0512,-23.608,0.0,-58.6132,-47.5581,-34.391],"intensity":[71.1538,51.9231,44.2308,26.9231,92.3077,82.6923,80.7692,69.2308,98.0769,28.8462,100.0,86.5385,11.5385,13.4615,71.1538,75.0,73.0769,96.1538,57.6923,15.3846,84.6154,86.5385,63.4615,48.0769,98.0769,100.0,84.6154,55.7692,92.3077,42.3077,65.3846,67.3077,59.6154,94.2308,86.5385,100.0,90.3846,96.1538,9.6154,71.1538,67.3077,86.5385,59.6154,100.0,96.1538,98.0769,76.9231,84.6154,53.8462,100.0,46.1538,86.5385],"confirmation":[90.0209,32.2139,51.4025,83.3305,92.5396,81.7178,93.0349,82.1156,95.3245,57.064,95.4197,11.7922,54.5622,54.4588,87.5621,91.9921,8.528,9.1807,79.6075,80.0617,86.0804,92.3501,32.7912,90.4428,91.3726,95.4497,36.5399,14.0424,34.9012,78.0775,57.6592,80.041,86.4508,92.8319,32.3801,93.1915,94.1431,79.9957,78.5095,83.0466,9.4202,80.7231,79.9278,89.47,80.4694,56.0316,54.4854,80.9598,4.0902,89.775,8.3467,5.1008],"persistence":[75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[8.7298,35.3759,7.6204,21.6152,10.9604,28.2612,10.4771,26.9997,7.7491,29.9125,7.6338,42.5506,24.6612,28.2218,43.6489,11.2887,37.4839,29.94,15.5271,43.9126,8.783,12.5366,44.3738,15.4418,12.6805,7.5393,39.7661,47.0369,8.0509,63.3072,32.169,47.3686,14.1989,11.4043,46.1251,11.1639,9.6626,29.9117,32.559,22.6685,9.4332,21.8436,13.229,15.3718,30.5336,28.3298,26.3668,29.4323,48.2514,17.4963,44.9036,31.9339],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-9.6,"control":-1.4,"force":-12.0,"direction":-34.4,"confirmation":5.1,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":31.9,"intensity":86.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-9.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-1.4","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-12.0","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-34.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"5/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"53.5","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.8%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"38.4","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"48%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend 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