{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"9165 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"676a1ae2-4786-43fa-995f-3e6423bca030","symbol":"9165","name":"Qualtec Co.,Ltd.","exchange":"JPX","country":"JP","asset_type":"equity","currency":"JPY","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Specialty Business Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":8,"completedEpisodes":6,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":6.1,"averageExpectedMove":10.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":7,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":57.1,"averageReturn":-0.3,"medianReturn":2.0,"confidenceLow":25.0,"confidenceHigh":84.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":6,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":18.8,"confidenceHigh":81.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":5,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":40.0,"averageReturn":-4.5,"medianReturn":-8.2,"confidenceLow":11.8,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":8},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":8},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":7},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":7},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":7},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":7},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":7},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":7},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":6},{"week":10,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":6},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":6},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":6},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":6},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":6},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":6},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":6},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":6},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":6},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":6},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":6},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":6},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":6},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":5},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":5},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":5},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":5}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":62.5,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":8},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 62.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.1% across 8 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.1% across 8 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-13","price":1264.658325}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1400.8523,1408.6348,1361.9397,1381.396,1410.5804,1415.4445,1412.526,1411.5532,1410.5804,1374.5863,1367.7766,1356.1028,1258.8214,1248.1205,1210.1807,1196.5613,1196.5613,1168.3497,1180.0234,1193.6428,1235.4739,1253.9574,1291.8971,1301.6252,1310.3806,1319.1359,1323.0271,1288.9786,1263.6855,1254.9302,1235.4739,1280.2234,1198.507,1113.8721,1157.6488,1198.507,1200.4526,1206.2894,1191.6973,1207.2623,1256.8759,1262.7126,1264.6583,1260.7671,1403.0,1411.0,1548.0,1475.0,1534.0,1598.0,1565.0,1499.0,1462.0,1482.0,1465.0,1464.0,1533.0,1502.0,1498.0,1514.0,1552.0,1501.0,1467.0,1431.0,1445.0,1472.0,1438.0,1486.0,1463.0,1395.0,1345.0,1375.0,1436.0,1442.0,1415.0,1425.0,1440.0,1600.0,1486.0,1494.0,1460.0,1393.0,1410.0,1415.0,1419.0,1421.0,1451.0,1469.0,1449.4968,1751.0699,1637.2504,1950.4973,1822.0856,1790.9554,1664.4893,1647.9514,1682.0,1777.0,1758.0,1702.0,1701.0,1715.0,1733.0,1705.0],"consensus":[-26.2142,-22.0332,-39.5931,-8.6322,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-36.0924,-18.3801,-26.7214,-68.6731,-32.4929,-53.9709,-51.449,-27.8372,-52.4919,-14.7686,0.0,17.3866,15.6297,34.9917,24.1924,18.1156,17.2994,12.4389,0.0,-20.0462,-11.5625,-24.6433,22.6166,-48.3829,-43.222,0.0,0.0,-8.4236,0.0,-13.4721,0.0,32.8428,24.1098,16.0454,8.8307,69.2968,45.6084,81.7906,0.0,68.9529,66.1675,15.2022,-10.2511,-21.6274,16.6474,-13.8367,0.0,44.5398,0.0,14.003,14.5132,34.6934,-18.1668,-26.4712,-37.0855,-12.9614,0.0,-31.4219,29.0034,-17.0851,-54.5213,-55.1563,-8.0343,19.0779,11.1263,-16.3033,8.2721,13.117,72.0567,-20.0451,18.3772,-10.9206,-49.6454,0.0,-8.9687,0.0,0.0,20.2011,26.6868,9.7881,67.5424,0.0,83.8916,0.0,23.5687,0.0,-15.1018,0.0,40.1477,0.0,-9.7643,0.0,0.0,10.355,-2.5351],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-16.2199,32.1719,-9.995,0.0,34.2447,0.0,15.1974,8.4343,37.7144,-23.006,-28.209,-35.6242,-3.6268,0.0,-35.3214,30.6116,-23.9945,-57.5672,-51.2259,-9.7892,26.4917,9.9146,-26.4247,5.6862,18.5048,70.031,-27.7272,13.5704,-12.5304,-49.2709,0.0,-0.4801,0.0,0.0,16.2449,27.025,13.6806,54.9403,0.0,86.2284,0.0,25.0511,0.0,-10.305,0.0,52.7879,0.0,-15.2692,0.0,0.0,12.7111,-0.4157],"force":[-61.998,14.4532,-29.4877,0.0,70.3154,0.0,6.8568,10.6864,41.7671,-40.4147,-36.7487,-39.799,-1.0438,0.0,-35.205,46.8321,-26.6444,-64.0583,-62.7895,-18.8996,49.1893,14.4382,-27.6056,15.6045,19.2992,96.1052,-72.2712,13.0562,-28.922,-60.2153,0.0,-2.8964,0.0,0.0,35.9859,31.0188,3.1535,92.1572,0.0,99.4352,0.0,1.6709,0.0,-24.1277,0.0,42.2655,0.0,-34.8769,0.0,0.0,12.9903,-13.2713],"direction":[-1.0286,0.4724,-7.0479,0.0,37.8944,0.0,17.7424,24.194,26.1883,-3.2552,-17.144,-36.8173,-33.6333,0.0,-24.2632,14.4306,-2.3605,-44.2281,-54.196,-47.6425,10.9031,10.1454,-3.3371,5.9901,2.5435,57.1942,-26.0388,27.6713,-3.7773,-42.5234,0.0,-28.2423,0.0,0.0,13.4476,23.2062,10.0786,64.3629,0.0,70.1186,0.0,39.9028,0.0,-14.1367,0.0,24.189,0.0,-14.4647,0.0,0.0,5.7799,-1.7614],"intensity":[69.2308,67.3077,13.4615,13.4615,96.1538,88.4615,19.2308,73.0769,51.9231,53.8462,30.7692,42.3077,21.1538,69.2308,34.6154,50.0,38.4615,75.0,78.8462,26.9231,86.5385,50.0,23.0769,42.3077,7.6923,100.0,90.3846,67.3077,86.5385,65.3846,53.8462,38.4615,3.8462,71.1538,25.0,13.4615,23.0769,100.0,98.0769,98.0769,98.0769,100.0,86.5385,9.6154,46.1538,78.8462,69.2308,73.0769,21.1538,5.7692,44.2308,57.6923],"confirmation":[53.7863,50.3571,50.2966,24.4757,83.1952,5.3818,49.5783,72.6202,79.2714,52.4454,76.7575,79.9723,26.7524,24.6458,78.1109,77.7999,50.9866,85.6911,85.9426,30.8087,31.9023,71.6798,51.4525,25.5766,49.6371,91.8219,36.1106,73.7918,50.1578,84.2144,4.5728,26.0393,25.8285,24.4674,75.0057,76.6667,48.204,90.5558,37.3818,95.2834,37.5944,52.44,3.8593,73.1807,24.6543,80.7192,5.4092,29.5585,1.281,25.1847,48.6913,24.3145],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[29.1034,55.5474,38.5076,21.7877,16.977,17.4357,18.5855,32.9698,4.2066,7.8557,21.2618,30.3813,43.3539,34.1895,19.1539,31.0024,31.3301,21.5466,21.8493,45.7043,37.9978,35.7225,55.5756,39.1891,1.1659,13.6055,49.822,30.2794,20.6118,24.9876,37.7131,38.2654,26.9194,25.0844,19.6341,22.6688,18.6166,16.094,50.1545,8.0172,50.5263,3.1633,10.3651,41.3712,36.243,25.216,26.6026,23.5997,6.1355,24.4897,16.2922,2.6802],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-2.5,"control":-0.4,"force":-13.3,"direction":-1.8,"confirmation":24.3,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":2.7,"intensity":57.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-2.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-0.4","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-13.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-1.8","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"24/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"54.9","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.9%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"43.2","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"39%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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