{"ticker": {"uuid": "67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e", "symbol": "PGR", "name": "The Progressive Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "asset_type": "equity"}, "latest_week": "2026-07-24", "summary": "PGR closed the latest completed week at 3,725 MXN. The 4-week return is -3.9% and the 12-week return is 5.2%. The trend backdrop is inactive, with activity pressure at 1.21.", "description": "The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.", "setup_signature": "Risk-first tape", "composite_score": "37", "kpis": [{"label": "Latest Close", "value": "3,725 MXN", "hint": "2026-07-24"}, {"label": "1W Return", "value": "0.4%", "tone": "positive", "hint": "latest completed week"}, {"label": "4W Return", "value": "-3.9%", "tone": "negative", "hint": "short-term follow-through"}, {"label": "12W Return", "value": "5.2%", "tone": "positive", "hint": "quarterly tape"}, {"label": "Trend Breadth", "value": "0.0%", "hint": "0 of 52 weeks active"}, {"label": "Volume Ratio", "value": "0.0x", "hint": "vs 13-week average"}], "classification": {"exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "sector": "Financial Services", "industry": "Insurance - Property & Casualty", "currency": "MXN", "market_cap": "1950.6B"}, "price": {"trend_line": "3,612 MXN", "fair_value": "4,014 MXN", "vs_trend": "3.1%", "vs_fair_value": "-7.2%", "high_52": "4,784 MXN", "low_52": "3,348 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"Latest volume versus the 13-week average.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Baseline", "value": "778", "detail": "13-week average volume.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "One-year base", "value": "3.0K", "detail": "52-week average volume.", "tone": "neutral"}]}, "risk": {"volatility_13": "4.2%", "volatility_52": "3.4%", "downside_weeks": 25, "upside_weeks": 25, "downside_breadth": "48.1%", "average_gain": "2.2%", "average_loss": "-3.0%", "distribution_scale": "9%", "return_callouts": [{"label": "Weeks higher", "value": "14 of 26", "detail": "11 weeks finished lower.", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Best week", "value": "+9.0%", "detail": "Week of 26 Jun.", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Worst week", "value": "-7.2%", "detail": "Week of 17 Jul.", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Latest week", "value": "+0.4%", "detail": "Week of 24 Jul.", "tone": "positive"}], "buckets": [{"label": "Strong gains", "count": 3, "share": 11.538461538461538, "share_label": "11.5%", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Modest gains", "count": 11, "share": 42.30769230769231, "share_label": "42.3%", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Flat weeks", "count": 1, "share": 3.8461538461538463, "share_label": "3.8%", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Modest losses", "count": 8, "share": 30.76923076923077, "share_label": "30.8%", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Sharp losses", "count": 3, "share": 11.538461538461538, "share_label": "11.5%", "tone": "negative"}], "insights": [{"label": "Recent vol", "value": "4.2%", "detail": "13-week weekly-return volatility.", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Base vol", "value": "3.4%", "detail": "52-week weekly-return volatility.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Up/down split", "value": "25/25", "detail": "Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Average skew", "value": "2.2% / -3.0%", "detail": "Average positive week versus average negative week.", "tone": "neutral"}]}, "signals": [{"label": "Trend backdrop", "value": "Inactive", "tone": "negative"}, {"label": "Activity pressure", "value": "No fresh buy", "tone": "neutral"}, {"label": "Price vs Trend", "value": "3.1%", "tone": "positive"}, {"label": "Volume", "value": "0.0x", "tone": "neutral"}], "opportunities": ["Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.", "Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.", "Next-week expectancy is positive at 56.56% based on similar historical setup states."], "risks": ["The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.", "Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.", "Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.", "The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high."], "watch_points": ["Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.", "Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.", "A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move."], "recent_rows": [{"week": "2026-07-24", "close": "3,725 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,612 MXN", "fair_value": "4,014 MXN", "activity_pressure": "1.21", "relative_leadership": "-7.04", "volume": "16", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-17", "close": "3,710 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,623 MXN", "fair_value": "4,003 MXN", "activity_pressure": "1.35", "relative_leadership": "-8.49", "volume": "1.1K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-10", "close": "4,000 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,634 MXN", "fair_value": "3,993 MXN", "activity_pressure": "1.32", "relative_leadership": "-1.94", "volume": "1.1K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-07-03", "close": "3,970 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,639 MXN", "fair_value": "3,979 MXN", "activity_pressure": "1.09", "relative_leadership": "-4.11", "volume": "1.4K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-26", "close": "3,876 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,642 MXN", "fair_value": "3,968 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.68", "relative_leadership": "-7.29", "volume": "3.1K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-19", "close": "3,557 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,650 MXN", "fair_value": "3,958 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.34", "relative_leadership": "-16.28", "volume": "0", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-12", "close": "3,448 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,672 MXN", "fair_value": "3,950 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.28", "relative_leadership": "-20.06", "volume": "534", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-06-05", "close": "3,360 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,693 MXN", "fair_value": "3,941 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.21", "relative_leadership": "-20.92", "volume": "0", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-29", "close": "3,355 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,711 MXN", "fair_value": "3,934 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.25", "relative_leadership": "-24.73", "volume": "1.3K", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-22", "close": "3,545 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,726 MXN", "fair_value": "3,927 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.34", "relative_leadership": "-21.13", "volume": "640", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-15", "close": "3,399 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,744 MXN", "fair_value": "3,920 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.39", "relative_leadership": "-24.85", "volume": "371", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-08", "close": "3,348 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,768 MXN", "fair_value": "3,913 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.28", "relative_leadership": "-28.91", "volume": "572", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-05-01", "close": "3,540 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,807 MXN", "fair_value": "3,907 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.19", "relative_leadership": "-23.70", "volume": "38", "trend_backdrop": null}, {"week": "2026-04-24", "close": "3,484 MXN", "return": null, "return_tone": null, "trend_line": "3,840 MXN", "fair_value": "3,899 MXN", "activity_pressure": "0.01", "relative_leadership": "-27.34", "volume": "11.7K", "trend_backdrop": null}], "intelligence": {"rating": "Neutral", "rating_tone": "neutral", "overall_score": "47", "primary_driver": {"label": "Next-Week Expectancy", "score": 78.27969999999999, "score_label": "78", "tone": "positive", "summary": "Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.56% historical one-week setup read.", "detail": "Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership.", "metric": "Positive 56.56%", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.05}, "primary_conflict": {"label": "Indicator analysis", "score": 33.66666666666666, "score_label": "34", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.", "detail": "Activity pressure 0.24; No reversal markers", "metric": "34/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.45}, "options_tone": "neutral", "options": null, "evidence": [{"label": "Weekly tape", "score": 35.14122649769794, "score_label": "35", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.", "detail": "", "metric": "35/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.6}, {"label": "Indicator analysis", "score": 33.66666666666666, "score_label": "34", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.", "detail": "Activity pressure 0.24; No reversal markers", "metric": "34/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.45}, {"label": "Next-Week Expectancy", "score": 78.27969999999999, "score_label": "78", "tone": "positive", "summary": "Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.56% historical one-week setup read.", "detail": "Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership.", "metric": "Positive 56.56%", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.05}, {"label": "Factors", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No published factor snapshot is available yet.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/factors/", "available": false, "weight": 0}, {"label": "Patient Capital", "score": 48.0, "score_label": "48", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.", "detail": "No recent buy signal", "metric": "Quiet", "url": "/patient-capital/", "available": true, "weight": 1}, {"label": "Sentiment", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Weighted news tone is neutral across 25 relevant articles.", "detail": "Janus Henderson Group PLC Lowers Position in The Progressive Corporation $PGR", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/sentiment/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 0.95}, {"label": "Insiders", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/insider-activity/", "available": false, "weight": 0}, {"label": "Earnings", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/earnings-calendar/", "available": false, "weight": 0}], "positives": [{"label": "Next-Week Expectancy", "score": 78.27969999999999, "score_label": "78", "tone": "positive", "summary": "Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.56% historical one-week setup read.", "detail": "Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership.", "metric": "Positive 56.56%", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.05}], "negatives": [{"label": "Indicator analysis", "score": 33.66666666666666, "score_label": "34", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.", "detail": "Activity pressure 0.24; No reversal markers", "metric": "34/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.45}, {"label": "Weekly tape", "score": 35.14122649769794, "score_label": "35", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.", "detail": "", "metric": "35/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.6}], "conclusion": ["The strongest supporting evidence is next-week expectancy: Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.56% historical one-week setup read.", "The main constraint is indicator analysis: Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.", "The combined read is balanced, making the next change in trend, sentiment, or options pressure especially important."], "weekly_changes": [{"label": "Price follow-through", "value": "0.4%", "detail": "Latest completed week; four-week move -3.9%.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "Indicator stack", "value": "0/78", "detail": "Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.", "tone": "negative", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "Trend backdrop", "value": "Active", "detail": "The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "Patient Capital", "value": "Quiet", "detail": "Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/patient-capital/"}, {"label": "Next-Week Expectancy", "value": "Positive 56.56%", "detail": "Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "News sentiment", "value": "50/100", "detail": "25 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/sentiment/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}]}, "investor_view": {"stance": "Weak trend", "stance_tone": "negative", "setup_score": "37", "bottom_line": "The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 26.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.4%, after a -3.9% four-week move. The latest news-sentiment score is 50/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal.", "price_summary": "The weekly trend is not active. Price is 3.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 26.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 0.4%, after a -3.9% four-week move.", "volume_summary": "Latest weekly volume is 0.0x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.", "momentum_summary": "Performance is -3.9% over four weeks, 5.2% over 12 weeks, and -19.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.", "fundamentals": {"available": false, "summary": "A published fundamentals and factor snapshot is not available for this company.", "rank_scores": [], "groups": []}, "weekly_change": [{"label": "Price follow-through", "value": "0.4%", "detail": "Latest completed week; four-week move -3.9%.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "Indicator stack", "value": "0/78", "detail": "Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.", "tone": "negative", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "Trend backdrop", "value": "Active", "detail": "The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "Patient Capital", "value": "Quiet", "detail": "Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/patient-capital/"}, {"label": "Next-Week Expectancy", "value": "Positive 56.56%", "detail": "Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.", "tone": "positive", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}, {"label": "News sentiment", "value": "50/100", "detail": "25 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.", "tone": "neutral", "url": "/sentiment/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/"}], "strengths": ["Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.", "Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.", "Next-week expectancy is positive at 56.56% based on similar historical setup states."], "risks": ["The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.", "Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.", "Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.", "The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high."], "watch_points": ["Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.", "Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.", "A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move."], "evidence": {"weekly_tape": {"label": "Weekly tape", "score": 35.14122649769794, "score_label": "35", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.", "detail": "", "metric": "35/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.6}, "indicator_analysis": {"label": "Indicator analysis", "score": 33.66666666666666, "score_label": "34", "tone": "negative", "summary": "Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 0/12, activity pressure 12/12, relative leadership 0/12.", "detail": "Activity pressure 0.24; No reversal markers", "metric": "34/100", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.45}, "next-week_expectancy": {"label": "Next-Week Expectancy", "score": 78.27969999999999, "score_label": "78", "tone": "positive", "summary": "Next-week expectancy is positive with a 56.56% historical one-week setup read.", "detail": "Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership.", "metric": "Positive 56.56%", "url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 1.05}, "factors": {"label": "Factors", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No published factor snapshot is available yet.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/factors/", "available": false, "weight": 0}, "patient_capital": {"label": "Patient Capital", "score": 48.0, "score_label": "48", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.", "detail": "No recent buy signal", "metric": "Quiet", "url": "/patient-capital/", "available": true, "weight": 1}, "sentiment": {"label": "Sentiment", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "Weighted news tone is neutral across 25 relevant articles.", "detail": "Janus Henderson Group PLC Lowers Position in The Progressive Corporation $PGR", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/sentiment/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "available": true, "weight": 0.95}, "insiders": {"label": "Insiders", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/insider-activity/", "available": false, "weight": 0}, "earnings": {"label": "Earnings", "score": 50.0, "score_label": "50", "tone": "neutral", "summary": "No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.", "detail": "", "metric": "50/100", "url": "/earnings-calendar/", "available": false, "weight": 0}}, "section_nav": [{"id": "overview", "label": "Overview"}, {"id": "price-action", "label": "Price"}, {"id": "volume-demand", "label": "Volume"}, {"id": "momentum", "label": "Momentum"}, {"id": "fundamentals", "label": "Fundamentals"}, {"id": "ownership-flow", "label": "Ownership & Flow"}, {"id": "catalysts-risk", "label": "Catalysts & Risk"}, {"id": "peer-context", "label": "Peer Context"}, {"id": "weekly-data", "label": "Weekly Data"}]}, "chart_url": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/", "api_path": "/terminal/67b7cf46-a39d-43ec-8efd-9e67dedb212e/report/api/"}