{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ARCAD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"691591e9-ca99-476c-9da9-446c544aa44b","symbol":"ARCAD","name":"Arcadis NV","exchange":"AMS","country":"NL","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Engineering & Construction"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":14,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":9.0,"averageExpectedMove":10.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":37.5,"averageReturn":-1.7,"medianReturn":-3.8,"confidenceLow":18.5,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":14,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":35.7,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":-1.0,"confidenceLow":16.3,"confidenceHigh":61.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":2.1,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":26.8,"confidenceHigh":73.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":3.4,"averageExpectedMove":3.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-1.6,"medianReturn":-1.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-22.7,"medianReturn":-22.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-5.2,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-8.3,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-8.3,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-13.9,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-18.4,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-22.7,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":35.7,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 35.7% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 1.1% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 10.1% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-01","price":35.322166}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":60.744747}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[60.7447,62.9278,60.6024,61.8363,60.1753,58.6566,61.0295,60.8871,62.6905,60.7922,61.4091,61.7888,59.7482,59.0363,59.2736,60.4126,57.5651,55.7143,55.7143,55.9042,51.9652,53.1042,52.2974,52.4398,51.6805,49.5924,46.9633,45.2359,44.4955,44.2867,46.4697,45.6725,42.0657,41.9708,38.7248,39.1234,40.9837,43.3186,43.8691,43.6869,44.1333,43.2211,43.3958,41.7461,40.6205,39.8054,41.0086,41.358,41.3386,40.7563,40.3682,39.2814,40.1159,38.2527,38.7185,41.0475,42.4836,41.9014,46.0935,45.88,46.9668,49.0532,40.1935,34.7205,35.3028,34.5264,36.9912,35.8462,34.6235,34.2353,34.1189,34.5459,35.8462,36.7389,36.4866,36.7001,37.3794,33.4202,28.6459,29.034,29.5581,27.9472,25.5601,26.4528,27.7143,28.4712,31.7899,30.2955,35.3222,35.0116,33.886,34.76,35.0,35.36,34.86,34.1,33.12,33.78,34.52,34.66,41.4,40.54,43.52,43.38],"consensus":[30.3405,62.977,-13.2867,42.5889,-22.5798,-41.1577,37.9216,0.0,49.821,-13.4894,18.1868,14.109,-41.1185,-26.3733,-9.9414,0.0,-57.5989,-59.194,-28.8693,-23.7549,-76.4041,-12.8367,-52.084,-23.0699,-22.8846,-61.6306,-75.9566,-74.9723,-54.2643,-41.2637,0.0,-34.3917,-73.0182,-27.9433,-73.2743,-25.4673,0.0,21.1695,0.0,0.0,10.1666,-14.0833,0.0,-43.6049,-34.8535,-44.4727,0.0,0.0,0.0,-21.4969,-18.2177,-41.6282,0.0,-55.2056,-9.5937,41.1057,48.4429,0.0,71.9261,26.7376,58.8119,73.2334,-59.0682,-77.0575,-37.0464,-44.5899,0.0,-37.1684,-47.2209,-42.3747,-30.1121,-22.6459,13.278,22.5345,0.0,12.6915,26.6372,-57.387,-71.6044,-19.4523,-22.4239,-57.0268,-69.3564,-19.7804,-10.5512,0.0,49.9236,-14.3202,68.2222,19.3246,8.3361,40.3873,18.7926,11.1101,17.8978,0.0,-11.2952,11.4403,27.4151,16.1509,70.6811,24.5244,72.5167,45.145],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-60.9663,-3.1871,37.9601,39.6913,0.0,64.2564,15.237,58.7857,74.2426,-51.9504,-80.9426,-40.5655,-39.8153,0.0,-50.9228,-57.2084,-55.0485,-24.3745,-21.6382,10.9739,19.2742,0.0,7.3287,24.45,-50.9247,-68.2345,-6.3867,-12.8162,-59.1862,-78.5594,-12.7438,-3.1413,0.0,44.0509,-31.6074,61.4388,4.9925,2.2491,36.7818,19.5868,3.0203,15.0216,0.0,-8.3352,21.9034,40.496,14.4847,59.9044,16.2323,75.9641,44.1005],"force":[0.0,-63.0205,-14.4122,70.3177,70.1604,0.0,95.4803,4.4372,49.7762,76.0515,-96.6959,-97.7781,-1.3476,-29.5323,0.0,-29.7137,-37.9337,-25.654,-7.6682,-2.2072,45.2896,39.9748,0.0,16.974,35.4411,-84.6562,-92.2428,-16.2469,-10.7058,-49.4886,-66.3803,-19.8429,-26.0443,0.0,80.3094,-31.3211,93.5065,8.9181,19.6452,30.8126,1.126,10.7351,0.9546,0.0,-16.2899,13.0499,22.2994,7.6506,93.2656,16.8683,71.7865,13.8559],"direction":[0.0,-43.0399,-34.0626,23.835,42.9324,0.0,63.867,62.1487,65.2959,70.0672,-40.3259,-57.817,-58.5236,-60.8021,0.0,-26.7739,-42.4404,-39.8338,-52.7006,-41.5499,6.9541,13.8031,0.0,15.7616,22.8483,-45.2944,-60.7139,-59.8839,-57.0681,-59.9434,-60.9645,-56.1245,-45.1594,0.0,34.931,-17.5801,57.9145,55.8774,40.42,51.3469,30.5038,35.9594,34.6509,0.0,-11.1104,1.6673,16.1195,24.1269,66.8655,63.5673,69.0984,68.688],"intensity":[15.3846,53.8462,23.0769,65.3846,63.4615,5.7692,100.0,100.0,25.0,59.6154,100.0,100.0,82.6923,38.4615,63.4615,25.0,32.6923,3.8462,25.0,9.6154,44.2308,17.3077,15.3846,32.6923,11.5385,92.3077,96.1538,96.1538,48.0769,50.0,69.2308,28.8462,42.3077,38.4615,78.8462,76.9231,92.3077,90.3846,76.9231,17.3077,13.4615,23.0769,55.7692,23.0769,50.0,9.6154,26.9231,26.9231,96.1538,86.5385,75.0,50.0],"confirmation":[29.1338,85.8162,5.5106,82.092,84.297,6.4677,91.8511,54.0611,86.5448,91.5052,88.157,93.2307,56.0466,81.8826,34.8977,79.4571,82.6755,80.8572,54.3726,52.3088,52.0765,75.7922,47.7139,49.6069,76.8255,87.2934,91.5937,8.8019,31.263,85.9859,89.9631,32.1292,7.9301,5.213,84.9911,31.2542,90.705,7.4441,6.6469,80.6871,50.7964,5.3029,50.7336,25.7256,71.8118,49.2395,76.4176,50.268,91.4705,32.9779,91.1306,89.5087],"persistence":[50.0,50.0,62.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[47.1202,22.0414,42.6156,24.9848,24.2125,46.2462,14.0309,36.4627,20.3145,13.3716,18.6036,11.3532,31.3889,27.69,38.8464,34.7171,13.4291,16.7103,20.3907,9.3271,12.6003,22.839,30.2579,35.3621,32.3887,20.2071,14.169,40.2579,38.7735,21.2692,11.8663,33.9505,31.6963,15.6692,24.7385,54.3658,15.5918,39.6805,31.0662,28.7896,17.5779,3.278,14.8372,20.9659,33.5198,41.3372,23.1891,9.0569,14.5941,37.6422,13.7264,27.4114],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":45.1,"control":44.1,"force":13.9,"direction":68.7,"confirmation":89.5,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":27.4,"intensity":50.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+45.1","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+44.1","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+13.9","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+68.7","detail":"Upward 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