{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"S07 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"6ba7204e-c065-49b6-9a24-bf4509368dbb","symbol":"S07","name":"Shangri-La Asia Limited","exchange":"SES","country":"SG","asset_type":"equity","currency":"HKD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Lodging"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":23,"completedEpisodes":23,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.8,"averageExpectedMove":9.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":23,"expectedCount":16,"expectedPercent":69.6,"averageReturn":2.0,"medianReturn":3.0,"confidenceLow":49.1,"confidenceHigh":84.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":23,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":47.8,"averageReturn":-0.4,"medianReturn":0.0,"confidenceLow":29.2,"confidenceHigh":67.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":22,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":40.9,"averageReturn":-0.8,"medianReturn":-2.4,"confidenceLow":23.3,"confidenceHigh":61.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":15.6,"averageExpectedMove":15.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-8.6,"medianReturn":-8.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-15.6,"medianReturn":-15.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-25.5,"medianReturn":-25.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-12.9,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-14.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-8.6,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-14.3,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-15.6,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-14.4,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-24.3,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-24.5,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-23.0,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-20.1,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-20.6,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-24.7,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-32.2,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-32.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-29.2,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-27.9,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-25.5,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":47.8,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":23},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 47.8% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.4% across 23 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 9.4% across 23 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-13","price":4.283441},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":4.37}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-11-15","price":5.018298}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-11-08","price":5.762824}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[4.7391,4.6338,4.5285,4.4232,4.6434,5.1537,5.5018,5.6081,5.6758,5.5114,5.5114,5.7628,5.0183,4.9313,5.028,5.2697,5.2504,5.115,5.2407,5.2504,5.1343,4.9796,4.9409,4.8636,5.1247,4.9313,4.3608,4.3511,4.4381,4.6025,4.5735,4.4962,4.3415,3.9063,3.9063,4.0804,4.1577,4.2931,4.3221,4.2351,4.2351,4.3028,4.2834,4.0361,4.2142,4.3725,4.511,4.6099,4.6396,4.5604,4.4615,4.7187,4.9166,4.6,4.5308,4.6396,4.511,4.65,4.65,4.78,4.79,4.65,4.85,4.68,4.88,4.58,4.46,4.6,4.84,4.72,4.67,5.0,4.83,4.72,4.72,4.84,5.0,5.15,5.15,5.07,4.88,4.78,4.93,5.0,4.3868,4.4747,4.3966,4.377,4.4943,4.3282,4.3966,4.3966,4.2695,4.2,4.2,4.1,4.02,4.02,4.29,4.28,4.2,4.5,4.37,4.3],"consensus":[-43.0245,-55.7348,-63.1426,-63.8863,8.9517,63.9615,69.9881,34.1185,59.6871,8.2474,23.7404,56.0117,-52.0118,-40.4115,-16.6563,16.4065,0.0,-22.1253,29.6456,15.2114,-30.7606,-46.1675,-30.9324,-50.8441,36.174,-47.7461,-71.6967,-33.2623,-12.4053,0.0,0.0,-21.3197,-60.9151,-80.228,-39.8643,-8.8345,-20.8343,31.8276,0.0,-25.1199,0.0,18.0376,-14.4174,-62.0156,19.0257,37.3258,50.2302,53.7137,44.7214,0.0,-21.2451,59.8211,73.6263,-24.2607,-18.3595,10.5788,-21.1223,39.8717,0.0,52.2528,39.0061,-17.4113,59.0641,-29.1636,45.0974,-39.116,-42.3187,17.0654,38.0532,0.0,14.6392,67.0455,0.0,-13.8051,-11.418,0.0,56.4161,50.4525,32.9367,31.7897,-32.9183,-41.7347,0.0,26.139,-72.8741,-11.584,-60.098,-31.9733,13.2524,-55.9228,-9.6091,0.0,-53.3031,-37.2121,-31.1807,-43.3221,-43.2369,-47.6145,0.0,0.0,-15.7752,61.93,0.0,6.3133],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[74.9047,-29.8956,-29.2142,9.0709,-17.7204,45.3887,0.0,48.6843,35.7276,-26.7297,59.5216,-29.4707,51.3234,-46.5711,-38.8999,24.946,52.2039,0.0,16.0385,64.7587,0.0,-16.9074,-23.2912,0.0,59.7207,45.4076,28.3951,35.5514,-38.6651,-46.7381,0.0,32.2993,-69.0624,-3.2791,-60.7894,-19.3992,13.5766,-56.3419,-12.9103,0.0,-57.8977,-35.6779,-27.509,-41.3953,-41.3135,-54.741,0.0,0.0,-19.4175,60.079,0.0,2.0925],"force":[84.5663,-78.0788,-42.6546,11.6805,-26.6411,55.2082,0.0,73.8567,36.9398,-35.2809,78.8636,-63.7822,48.9789,-54.8934,-47.2789,47.8364,43.6417,0.0,14.4341,94.7997,0.0,-26.2361,-11.7587,0.0,73.095,53.0898,10.073,10.2223,-52.8582,-42.024,0.0,42.2649,-98.0327,-22.7046,-60.5441,-13.7028,58.4455,-64.4397,-24.9005,0.0,-50.102,-23.6717,-8.0252,-24.5187,-21.9979,-22.2944,0.0,0.0,-33.143,81.0783,0.0,26.0554],"direction":[64.3509,-20.6207,-11.3994,11.5152,-21.0683,22.612,0.0,40.8997,44.2288,-6.0023,44.3988,-4.0851,35.2095,-19.3262,-42.683,13.9202,17.8891,0.0,13.1866,49.8347,0.0,-1.3803,-2.3946,0.0,40.7259,54.3343,54.4582,42.8959,-12.1076,-35.8099,0.0,7.5803,-59.26,-53.0622,-58.9891,-59.3941,19.3989,-49.3602,-30.486,0.0,-50.3385,-48.6372,-51.9167,-58.955,-60.6057,-57.5558,0.0,0.0,-0.793,50.368,0.0,2.9644],"intensity":[63.4615,82.6923,80.7692,50.0,76.9231,26.9231,28.8462,23.0769,11.5385,34.6154,59.6154,46.1538,63.4615,84.6154,23.0769,76.9231,69.2308,25.0,46.1538,92.3077,46.1538,21.1538,19.2308,32.6923,42.3077,78.8462,32.6923,40.3846,59.6154,59.6154,34.6154,96.1538,100.0,96.1538,69.2308,11.5385,17.3077,44.2308,1.9231,13.4615,25.0,82.6923,1.9231,11.5385,9.6154,3.8462,78.8462,3.8462,78.8462,84.6154,32.6923,9.6154],"confirmation":[91.8743,36.3835,31.5486,71.4418,74.9792,81.1423,26.5408,85.4337,80.4689,52.588,87.497,55.716,82.4546,80.8843,81.7453,31.915,80.1317,27.7231,72.657,90.3353,3.7564,50.0825,49.3274,0.8163,86.5111,84.3021,77.9121,77.4581,79.054,81.2877,2.4671,54.0954,92.1445,8.4316,87.2344,77.8663,32.4182,86.1485,29.9517,4.3396,84.8894,79.5186,77.3281,81.3194,81.2178,82.3564,25.5541,4.5627,51.0244,88.4294,6.4992,25.9853],"persistence":[62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[11.5425,23.7379,28.6115,27.0057,38.8555,4.391,29.6922,10.4162,28.1767,8.7057,12.747,12.3083,2.8632,0.1472,28.2507,32.1248,30.8208,36.1646,35.65,15.1794,1.9088,6.9025,18.7365,34.9709,8.6722,24.0127,33.1983,29.8384,15.62,28.4821,44.4047,35.1272,12.8113,39.5906,19.4607,33.8125,17.8682,3.7307,4.8045,8.1248,14.6195,11.0351,23.4278,24.7924,22.893,24.973,30.1581,49.7514,54.1234,18.9509,28.4024,10.6532],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":6.3,"control":2.1,"force":26.1,"direction":3.0,"confirmation":26.0,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":10.7,"intensity":9.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+6.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+2.1","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+26.1","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM 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