{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HSY Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7016dfc5-9905-4882-ac85-823dcb96faff","symbol":"HSY","name":"The Hershey Company","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Confectioners"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":12,"completedEpisodes":12,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.7,"averageExpectedMove":6.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":12,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":-0.1,"confidenceLow":25.4,"confidenceHigh":74.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":12,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":41.7,"averageReturn":0.3,"medianReturn":-1.5,"confidenceLow":19.3,"confidenceHigh":68.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":11,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":63.6,"averageReturn":2.8,"medianReturn":3.8,"confidenceLow":35.4,"confidenceHigh":84.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":12},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":12},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":12},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":12},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":12},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":12},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":12},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":12},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":12},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":12},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":12},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":12},{"week":13,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":12},{"week":14,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":12},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":12},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":12},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":12},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":12},{"week":19,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":12},{"week":20,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":12},{"week":21,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":12},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":11},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":11},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":11},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":11},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":11}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is repairing while price remains rotational","use":"The repair is constructive, but price has not yet established a clear response.","confirm":"Treat the repair as constructive context until price confirms it.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 6.4% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-03-07","price":165.661453},{"date":"2025-07-04","price":143.623627},{"date":"2025-07-18","price":142.251923}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-03-13","price":188.342575}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[164.5326,162.971,169.0105,169.7254,164.6266,162.9522,164.2127,161.5599,160.6945,158.1169,154.8808,152.3032,161.5975,159.2553,157.3207,158.0794,165.8933,155.7277,155.5,156.3156,148.2172,142.4327,135.9653,137.4447,141.5223,144.1716,157.3181,159.0595,165.6615,150.3908,147.6352,150.5822,142.6981,137.6462,138.1437,136.785,138.2585,144.4969,135.9537,132.1283,136.6105,136.7458,143.7202,144.6862,138.1368,143.6236,134.7558,142.2519,151.255,159.0795,152.5687,147.0827,150.0852,151.7034,157.7864,153.1852,157.8449,155.4468,160.9449,161.8807,156.8506,151.4695,141.1168,143.5733,149.0714,158.78,159.803,154.7077,153.1732,159.3702,152.6814,153.7634,157.8553,168.4197,158.9767,159.7439,191.6534,185.5155,185.8247,196.3521,192.1094,188.3426,181.0864,184.7938,174.2664,173.523,162.8172,162.7181,154.887,156.8695,161.55,166.2,165.7,160.05,157.8,149.75,157.5,159.5,149.2638,151.0968,152.4839,150.7418,156.8929,159.35],"consensus":[-23.4868,-30.1727,38.4991,14.2747,-33.6903,-15.1442,0.0,-36.8962,-22.447,-48.6398,-54.8341,-51.0659,30.2027,0.0,-15.4819,0.0,33.9016,-38.2151,0.0,0.0,-58.8973,-53.2348,-67.126,-36.9586,0.0,0.0,62.2298,33.3599,66.0785,-31.4525,-27.4198,0.0,-53.8339,-39.2213,-34.3959,-42.8484,-21.0071,34.4713,-50.6012,-41.1183,0.0,-18.6379,43.3901,38.4248,-30.502,37.447,-51.5786,30.9257,64.6211,57.5946,0.0,-11.9328,16.7395,10.5459,59.5522,0.0,49.1662,0.0,52.7203,26.2122,-11.942,-41.4096,-66.916,-14.0423,0.0,49.8476,36.5579,0.0,0.0,39.8437,-34.446,8.6797,34.8955,57.8263,-11.8607,22.894,68.5828,9.4815,42.6874,71.0544,0.0,16.9029,-16.6108,23.9238,-40.1814,-32.9333,-61.6889,-28.1188,-71.1175,-23.3348,0.0,20.2476,0.0,-8.4111,-15.1235,-64.4459,0.0,8.1024,-48.4945,-13.4069,0.0,-39.7309,36.6886,-29.8536],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[19.7624,20.9165,64.5429,0.0,47.2787,0.0,55.4819,16.8281,-14.2145,-43.2841,-64.7766,-0.0311,0.0,60.4723,38.0576,0.0,0.0,55.9632,-39.4914,16.8398,40.2822,67.1979,-31.0859,22.4071,75.0572,8.2375,39.9252,83.8062,0.0,10.9579,-24.0279,42.4002,-42.8419,-33.7559,-58.3092,-15.9736,-72.1899,-10.2629,0.0,22.0038,0.0,-9.7442,-6.202,-66.5517,0.0,17.5578,-45.7583,-15.8638,0.0,-32.2542,34.9576,-25.8714],"force":[11.7217,3.0435,68.7716,0.0,54.3572,0.0,63.0267,6.3236,-43.3931,-69.2992,-87.8865,-13.7249,0.0,48.4576,21.2008,0.0,0.0,35.8666,-45.6842,12.8014,36.5634,48.238,-33.3455,18.4341,57.9195,40.8496,14.9718,51.8236,0.0,13.0102,-39.9849,17.3342,-48.1031,-30.2028,-75.7565,-7.6071,-79.0696,-9.1319,0.0,54.3549,0.0,-12.2433,-6.6136,-64.6289,0.0,28.6532,-44.6573,-13.1614,0.0,-45.7002,73.9172,-44.288],"direction":[16.869,8.4004,47.2632,0.0,47.6156,0.0,42.2025,51.1431,-13.1202,-19.3463,-54.3821,-49.8886,0.0,38.6979,45.8134,0.0,0.0,24.2622,-20.6527,3.5901,27.5479,53.9647,-25.4571,26.6361,68.8,65.6825,65.6411,70.2173,0.0,45.0637,-8.5616,7.5149,-31.4824,-33.9436,-55.5032,-56.6501,-64.2119,-61.4647,0.0,6.1218,0.0,-21.6408,-40.8459,-61.9086,0.0,17.3831,-54.3623,-29.5763,0.0,-44.0119,12.0751,-24.0943],"intensity":[21.1538,3.8462,46.1538,38.4615,40.3846,13.4615,46.1538,76.9231,46.1538,38.4615,84.6154,65.3846,53.8462,82.6923,48.0769,34.6154,26.9231,42.3077,55.7692,36.5385,19.2308,88.4615,80.7692,63.4615,100.0,98.0769,26.9231,82.6923,67.3077,73.0769,65.3846,28.8462,86.5385,57.6923,94.2308,80.7692,65.3846,32.6923,53.8462,21.1538,23.0769,88.4615,3.8462,67.3077,63.4615,9.6154,80.7692,13.4615,1.9231,75.0,44.2308,13.4615],"confirmation":[73.1577,48.7851,87.2616,29.7532,83.9202,6.3372,85.1425,53.2581,30.211,82.0725,90.0848,6.7888,30.2779,83.747,79.2077,28.335,24.3892,80.3832,79.2884,48.878,79.1353,86.0694,32.2548,75.1976,89.5229,34.9088,80.8574,89.957,8.3979,30.0301,30.4079,52.5066,81.0589,78.4429,88.2207,53.8913,90.9836,31.2917,7.3162,54.1313,25.7481,27.3204,28.3906,88.5962,33.5935,29.45,83.443,28.9175,30.644,81.0097,80.9013,78.0537],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[17.9119,47.4248,4.8478,36.5436,17.8341,26.126,1.9211,33.6235,3.4682,12.6719,16.5004,42.9168,48.7067,18.2766,31.5979,48.4862,29.4271,14.5981,24.9228,12.7441,16.3774,15.9845,43.0388,27.3113,15.5938,41.7663,28.1624,14.3877,1.7143,4.8144,12.5496,52.1944,26.1967,27.2732,15.6517,34.3465,11.645,37.9959,8.8078,15.0308,52.2971,30.9648,22.8498,17.5588,46.7342,9.1652,20.5617,19.0248,35.0228,27.2075,26.4268,31.1841],"volumeParticipation":false,"latest":{"consensus":-29.9,"control":-25.9,"force":-44.3,"direction":-24.1,"confirmation":78.1,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":31.2,"intensity":13.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-29.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-25.9","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-44.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-24.1","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"78/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"49.4","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.7%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"11.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"23%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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