{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"QAN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"71f70f4d-4d59-4e2a-b2f6-95bd6aab0984","symbol":"QAN","name":"Qantas Airways Limited","exchange":"ASX","country":"AU","asset_type":"equity","currency":"AUD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Airlines"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. 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consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":21},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":20},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":20},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":20},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":20},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":20},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":20},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":20},{"week":14,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":20},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":20},{"week":16,"averageReturn":7.6,"sample":20},{"week":17,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":20},{"week":18,"averageReturn":7.4,"sample":20},{"week":19,"averageReturn":7.9,"sample":20},{"week":20,"averageReturn":10.3,"sample":20},{"week":21,"averageReturn":10.0,"sample":20},{"week":22,"averageReturn":11.6,"sample":20},{"week":23,"averageReturn":11.3,"sample":20},{"week":24,"averageReturn":11.7,"sample":20},{"week":25,"averageReturn":11.8,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":19}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":16.3,"averageExpectedMove":16.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.5,"medianReturn":-4.1,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.7,"medianReturn":-16.3,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-14.5,"medianReturn":-13.3,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-7.8,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-11.8,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-12.0,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-12.1,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-10.0,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-10.1,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-13.5,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Positive support; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is positive while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the improvement as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is constructive, but a positive price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":65.0,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 65.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.1% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 9.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 10.9% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-07-25","price":10.340716},{"date":"2025-10-17","price":10.382965},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":10.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-08-15","price":11.094331},{"date":"2025-08-29","price":11.208803},{"date":"2025-09-26","price":10.744367}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[5.652,5.8284,6.2274,6.2553,6.4223,6.7379,6.8864,6.4966,6.6544,6.84,7.4525,7.5824,7.833,8.2971,8.1393,8.3806,8.2507,8.0929,8.4641,8.427,8.6683,8.3806,8.7797,8.7426,8.7333,8.6776,8.4084,8.8354,9.1973,8.6141,8.6045,8.9575,8.0417,8.0036,8.1371,8.2039,8.6427,9.4059,9.7397,9.7588,10.1213,10.2644,9.7207,9.797,10.0641,10.0927,10.3312,10.5887,10.3407,10.398,10.4361,11.0943,10.7795,11.2088,11.3042,10.8845,10.7932,10.7444,10.6174,10.93,10.383,10.2658,9.963,9.289,9.4941,9.1913,9.7481,9.582,9.6113,10.0118,10.0411,10.2462,10.0704,10.1388,10.0997,9.836,9.9141,10.1192,10.3634,9.7188,8.7127,8.61,8.34,8.45,8.55,9.19,9.08,8.41,8.48,8.9,8.54,8.68,9.44,9.19,9.35,10.06,10.68,10.61,10.41,10.24,9.99,9.95,10.57,10.0],"consensus":[28.5232,46.742,69.9918,41.5396,62.2087,72.6877,63.3358,-8.5887,46.2818,44.5553,80.0163,60.7853,67.7699,70.8694,19.7571,63.7172,25.0888,0.0,61.5595,33.5801,59.3574,0.0,59.9718,24.7756,26.1514,18.5019,-24.9563,52.5171,51.3443,-30.7027,0.0,33.492,-62.9399,-17.2251,-13.2205,-10.3593,40.2752,67.0858,56.2236,35.7074,61.0589,45.6226,-14.804,22.1348,38.1948,15.3091,41.8389,52.8023,9.7208,27.9945,21.321,68.3149,0.0,50.0887,40.1662,-18.3736,0.0,0.0,-14.9563,28.9903,-47.4166,-36.0821,-51.8358,-73.3243,-21.9301,-60.0964,13.905,-18.378,-9.2151,36.1269,0.0,36.033,0.0,20.0904,0.0,-31.9311,-8.0198,15.794,32.7414,-43.6956,-68.8156,-30.5098,-62.9131,-23.29,-15.5826,35.5708,0.0,-53.0289,-9.1091,15.4516,-42.2906,0.0,46.6981,0.0,19.6494,45.5684,50.4271,32.2565,37.7018,13.8802,-19.0608,-13.7973,52.4168,31.2652],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,38.5839,38.4642,-20.1381,0.0,0.0,-4.8177,34.2609,-47.6021,-35.0231,-48.3621,-69.1706,-14.7058,-61.7666,23.0433,-22.8473,-9.4137,34.4835,0.0,40.1415,0.0,25.1409,0.0,-28.443,-7.848,19.3144,33.3716,-39.8989,-67.5842,-16.3975,-59.265,-15.392,-13.8125,29.6003,0.0,-54.5692,-6.0178,23.501,-45.6091,0.0,51.0777,0.0,10.1147,39.4661,49.3423,22.2151,36.6491,10.2745,-17.199,-12.2788,55.3114,33.9557],"force":[0.0,66.8685,27.7848,-55.986,0.0,0.0,-23.3188,41.8655,-69.0458,-34.7264,-59.8394,-91.9511,-18.3323,-51.8657,63.43,-9.6461,-7.7185,64.4201,0.0,35.9667,0.0,22.4017,0.0,-45.5377,-1.2999,22.7561,34.2578,-80.3637,-83.4273,-10.9674,-68.1226,-14.3923,-15.6506,82.7196,0.0,-80.485,-13.5623,44.7232,-48.0084,0.0,46.4235,0.0,10.1024,37.9959,31.7605,2.5659,8.7266,16.3023,-51.5639,-31.3655,63.7574,70.5651],"direction":[0.0,51.2515,50.9552,-10.5089,0.0,0.0,-20.57,13.7701,-31.7553,-38.2606,-50.0889,-64.7666,-58.9453,-64.0666,31.9136,-19.5072,-21.0837,17.7956,0.0,31.3849,0.0,12.6675,0.0,-26.1986,-13.0161,6.7976,30.9379,-21.8432,-59.786,-60.597,-63.3611,-59.2322,-39.9149,8.7166,0.0,-31.6569,-28.8359,14.656,-34.4139,0.0,41.8891,0.0,37.3656,57.9514,65.0001,64.9399,59.6016,39.56,-2.0278,-2.9841,41.0082,0.119],"intensity":[67.3077,98.0769,78.8462,65.3846,61.5385,5.7692,9.6154,44.2308,75.0,21.1538,44.2308,88.4615,69.2308,42.3077,78.8462,23.0769,5.7692,57.6923,65.3846,15.3846,15.3846,25.0,38.4615,46.1538,13.4615,23.0769,34.6154,88.4615,100.0,82.6923,44.2308,25.0,9.6154,82.6923,23.0769,86.5385,94.2308,71.1538,55.7692,11.5385,96.1538,36.5385,44.2308,92.3077,80.7692,3.8462,50.0,19.2308,38.4615,38.4615,76.9231,75.0],"confirmation":[32.1031,84.7151,80.5018,31.9075,2.7146,48.0947,50.5287,77.589,83.8297,79.5211,84.8843,92.0948,32.4782,86.9545,35.2946,73.5467,49.4097,80.4479,25.0274,79.4659,27.6971,74.4224,25.2424,78.6858,25.0308,50.5459,78.5138,83.1579,90.4851,77.3826,88.3465,32.1618,30.067,80.9106,1.2009,85.7825,5.1644,31.5072,81.6567,25.2695,82.8683,4.8804,74.1421,82.4441,83.5843,54.9036,79.1976,29.7213,52.8843,50.307,85.0749,56.4949],"persistence":[87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[44.2294,24.4674,29.5837,22.0634,1.0827,44.462,41.6457,6.8462,18.7786,27.1133,22.2171,13.3236,38.6766,19.8422,35.327,44.8097,22.1465,31.0669,30.6641,29.7112,45.1164,9.2458,10.6783,27.5082,24.4769,11.9329,24.9853,0.5373,15.4388,34.7165,18.5426,38.2852,14.3131,27.0446,46.1744,21.8358,3.5613,36.2247,20.7118,25.377,24.9749,31.3757,38.7206,27.1003,24.4824,33.7309,30.5226,13.2246,38.0073,40.1636,6.9213,10.3546],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":31.3,"control":34.0,"force":70.6,"direction":0.1,"confirmation":56.5,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":10.4,"intensity":75.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+31.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+34.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+70.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+0.1","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"56/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"53.1","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.6%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"19.5","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"71%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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