{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SBSN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"72036f61-8e92-4367-994e-f39f84082639","symbol":"SBSN","name":"Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo - SABESP","exchange":"MEX","country":"MX","asset_type":"equity","currency":"MXN","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Regulated Water"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":5,"completedEpisodes":4,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":0.0,"averageExpectedMove":2.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":1.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":5,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":20.0,"averageReturn":-1.4,"medianReturn":0.0,"confidenceLow":3.6,"confidenceHigh":62.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":4,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":25.0,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-1.3,"confidenceLow":4.6,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":17.4,"medianReturn":9.1,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":5},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":5},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":5},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":5},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":5},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":5},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":5},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":5},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":5},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":4},{"week":23,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":4},{"week":24,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":4},{"week":25,"averageReturn":17.4,"sample":4},{"week":26,"averageReturn":17.4,"sample":4}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.0,"averageExpectedMove":6.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-6.0,"medianReturn":-6.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-6.0,"medianReturn":-6.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":5},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.0% across 5 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 85.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 0.0% across 5 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-06-05","price":93.82}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":99.760002}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,40.3897,73.6168,73.6168,73.6168,73.7477,73.7477,73.7477,73.7477,73.7477,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,76.9368,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0425,77.0759,77.0759,77.0759,77.0759,77.0759,77.0759,77.0759,99.76,99.76,98.22,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82,93.82],"consensus":[13.5736,12.3604,11.1833,10.0411,8.9339,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,85.1875,55.5912,55.8036,71.4633,44.7472,44.447,44.0635,42.5207,95.4505,52.8622,51.9636,50.6603,37.3895,34.8518,31.8111,28.6824,25.9376,23.809,22.2559,21.1185,20.2413,19.5116,18.8565,18.2303,17.6035,16.9571,16.2783,15.5592,14.7959,13.9878,13.1373,12.2491,11.3303,10.3888,9.4337,8.4741,0.0,0.0,28.3669,17.9325,17.3687,16.7949,8.4971,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,37.1839,12.43,11.8284,11.2609,0.0,0.0,-10.9736,84.4594,55.2287,18.774,31.9853,26.3303,25.4514,24.4441,34.6536,33.1688,31.4395,29.4981,27.4204,25.3093,23.2645],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[36.2607,35.7415,35.2041,34.6392,34.0366,33.3864,32.6794,31.9082,31.0679,30.1567,29.1759,28.1302,27.0271,25.8766,24.6901,23.48,22.2592,0.0,0.0,38.9409,25.9057,24.72,23.5104,22.2896,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,53.3885,20.7056,19.5038,18.3269,0.0,0.0,-6.989,70.0567,43.2538,5.4509,16.74,37.9481,37.4434,36.9391,36.4322,35.9173,35.387,34.8324,34.2436,33.6104,32.9234],"force":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,30.2544,10.3024,10.8912,11.4865,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,53.7437,8.0968,8.6229,9.1687,0.0,0.0,-20.0134,100.0,18.0,49.1308,19.5068,17.976,17.9863,17.9329,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"direction":[18.8979,16.9849,15.5141,14.2881,13.1874,12.1398,11.1009,10.0428,8.9487,7.8093,6.6213,5.3863,4.1094,2.7989,1.4651,0.1191,1.2273,0.0,0.0,14.934,14.2704,13.594,12.9116,1.1963,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,6.836,6.0673,5.3462,4.6798,0.0,0.0,-9.0704,89.8193,95.5061,94.963,86.1885,44.7002,42.7734,40.4333,57.3734,53.7197,49.385,44.4719,39.2084,33.9004,28.8432],"intensity":[88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,88.4615,86.5385,86.5385,86.5385,86.5385,86.5385,86.5385,86.5385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structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+23.3","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+32.9","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+0.0","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction 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