{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"DVXK Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"7413f3e5-6509-4c56-aafb-b81da5b2aeb8","symbol":"DVXK","name":"WEBs Defined Volatility XLK ETF","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":57,"displayedObservations":57,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Rollover warning","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","take":"The prior extension has started to roll over. Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":8.9,"averageExpectedMove":8.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.9,"medianReturn":-5.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.6,"medianReturn":-5.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-8.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.6,"sample":1},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":35.7,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 35.7% across 1 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.8% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-01","price":31.059}],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-05-29","price":38.9988},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":37.8015}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-06-05","price":36.2869},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":38.2055}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[24.7912,23.8565,25.425,25.3668,24.6873,24.6311,24.7137,26.2471,27.7569,27.7404,28.8386,27.5547,28.5512,29.7418,30.7201,29.0507,28.8434,26.8668,28.388,29.2309,28.3012,28.5084,29.1458,28.364,28.9839,28.8215,28.5211,28.1762,27.282,26.8795,27.1388,26.7143,26.4236,26.0945,25.638,24.2919,25.5969,26.9206,29.2969,30.5245,31.059,35.1534,35.3656,36.2636,38.9988,36.2869,37.0051,38.1921,36.6906,36.5253,37.3494,35.7494,35.545,35.53,37.8015,38.2055,36.8334],"consensus":[100.0,-100.0,100.0,-22.8289,-23.6151,0.0,0.0,69.6214,79.2029,31.8309,77.0023,0.0,65.7312,74.211,65.7001,0.0,0.0,-58.8078,26.6189,45.5879,-25.4181,26.6323,41.2573,-26.3574,34.6107,0.0,0.0,-22.5382,-38.3828,-48.0797,-13.9693,-42.203,-49.515,-50.789,-53.7394,-77.1172,14.0759,35.7181,73.5636,70.5091,66.8929,88.0813,45.3918,75.7854,86.9724,0.0,61.2722,70.1755,-19.493,0.0,53.0105,-28.304,-12.0307,0.0,56.0921,47.3509,-17.7674],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[0.0,0.0,72.7378,86.9764,15.2963,73.7228,0.0,61.4188,81.7567,50.5786,0.0,0.0,-56.709,50.9753,59.9491,-29.3292,25.0101,52.8211,-28.7621,36.944,0.0,0.0,-25.3988,-33.5558,-50.4176,-8.7077,-37.6769,-51.3951,-53.2925,-57.9937,-76.2328,23.938,43.3522,76.228,79.4664,67.6883,91.6891,35.2769,72.6661,88.7336,0.0,62.1687,70.1658,-14.7777,0.0,58.0782,-27.4612,-8.1943,0.0,69.0686,47.9926,-22.7469],"force":[0.0,0.0,66.2009,63.3191,7.6304,74.9339,0.0,72.1398,55.5655,69.5407,0.0,0.0,-83.7128,34.7533,45.8644,-48.1188,31.8852,37.0209,-40.0343,44.863,0.0,0.0,-29.5179,-37.285,-41.0373,-18.5516,-40.0513,-49.5735,-49.6596,-42.5237,-93.887,77.3804,53.7602,96.3793,67.7795,67.4491,99.5122,19.6292,80.238,94.1084,0.0,57.6309,76.2456,-87.2828,0.0,61.2776,-65.1325,-29.1901,0.0,65.339,44.3986,-69.6919],"direction":[0.0,0.0,68.5032,81.6643,78.9141,82.2278,0.0,66.0822,78.9057,80.2387,0.0,0.0,-43.4171,7.0274,28.9776,-4.7335,24.7343,31.0675,-13.84,24.621,0.0,0.0,-14.2834,-44.6835,-50.4383,-43.2116,-48.9126,-47.3246,-48.7344,-56.8886,-66.1494,42.4125,14.1063,54.2216,62.222,65.5866,75.7932,75.3535,76.1699,79.8623,0.0,62.8486,65.8508,-23.5393,0.0,41.3136,-2.9613,-4.1583,0.0,34.6569,48.7262,-25.0123],"intensity":[20.0,33.3333,85.7143,75.0,66.6667,60.0,72.7273,75.0,61.5385,100.0,93.3333,25.0,100.0,72.2222,21.0526,30.0,61.9048,86.3636,17.3913,8.3333,4.0,46.1538,77.7778,100.0,41.3793,6.6667,9.6774,12.5,6.0606,14.7059,68.5714,66.6667,97.2973,100.0,89.7436,20.0,100.0,97.619,34.8837,95.4545,93.3333,97.8261,72.3404,60.4167,18.3673,28.0,74.5098,7.6923,73.0769,86.5385,57.6923,55.7692],"confirmation":[3.1988,28.8573,90.1271,92.7424,56.1964,92.6277,39.9868,89.295,91.0643,89.3715,40.002,7.1264,87.6095,55.2273,82.3777,54.0994,76.7072,80.897,76.8146,79.3523,25.1129,26.4614,75.3813,80.3226,83.1353,30.1836,81.5084,83.8179,84.1799,84.79,93.202,37.998,79.8633,92.1951,90.3432,89.4106,96.4794,81.8944,92.4346,96.0218,39.6541,87.4825,90.6413,36.064,6.6619,85.1381,55.5259,49.7646,25.7325,86.0335,83.0525,25.3402],"persistence":[16.6667,14.2857,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,75.0,87.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[37.3202,36.5638,2.4552,10.2342,33.976,11.4889,46.4701,1.0374,11.4141,15.7511,48.7871,13.3763,19.9227,61.278,15.4074,8.4209,31.3889,8.285,19.0272,10.5879,12.2946,29.7033,1.542,28.7572,24.7444,40.9966,28.3012,22.1451,21.4991,23.0066,11.4383,50.2855,22.9193,13.1571,14.7449,16.5512,5.9586,27.2893,12.0839,6.5123,32.4766,6.9182,6.2217,34.4435,3.6112,16.3615,30.3244,23.1531,28.9992,13.0612,22.9584,43.5732],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-17.8,"control":-22.7,"force":-69.7,"direction":-25.0,"confirmation":25.3,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":43.6,"intensity":55.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-17.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-22.7","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-69.7","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-25.0","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"25/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"59.4","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.7%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"37.5","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"76%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[24.7912,23.8565,25.425,25.3668,24.6873,24.6311,24.7137,26.2471,27.7569,27.7404,28.8386,27.5547,28.5512,29.7418,30.7201,29.0507,28.8434,26.8668,28.388,29.2309,28.3012,28.5084,29.1458,28.364,28.9839,28.8215,28.5211,28.1762,27.282,26.8795,27.1388,26.7143,26.4236,26.0945,25.638,24.2919,25.5969,26.9206,29.2969,30.5245,31.059,35.1534,35.3656,36.2636,38.9988,36.2869,37.0051,38.1921,36.6906,36.5253,37.3494,35.7494,35.545,35.53,37.8015,38.2055,36.8334],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,24.842,24.8037,24.7873,25.0527,25.5444,25.9436,26.47,26.6672,27.0098,27.5065,28.0908,28.2653,28.3704,28.097,28.15,28.3465,28.3382,28.3692,28.5104,28.4838,28.5747,28.6196,28.6017,28.5243,28.2984,28.0405,27.8765,27.6652,27.4395,27.1949,26.9118,26.4355,26.283,26.3989,26.9258,27.5801,28.2127,29.4746,30.5457,31.5853,32.9332,33.543,34.1725,34.9033,35.2283,35.4641,35.8069,35.7964,35.7507,35.7106,36.0907,36.4752,36.5404],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,25.9233,26.2061,26.5405,26.7264,26.8833,26.882,26.9936,27.1593,27.2439,27.3376,27.4715,27.5376,27.6448,27.7319,27.7904,27.819,27.7792,27.7125,27.67,27.5992,27.5122,27.4071,27.2761,27.055,26.947,26.9451,27.1193,27.3715,27.6447,28.2009,28.7316,29.2895,30.0087,30.4738,30.9576,31.4935,31.8784,32.2227,32.6024,32.8355,33.0362,33.2209,33.5602,33.9043,34.1213],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper 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envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,22.9975,22.7525,22.8756,22.892,22.7683,22.5783,22.6982,22.8321,22.9426,23.0736,23.1674,23.4668,24.016,24.2797,24.5988,25.1331,25.7961,26.6044,26.9964,26.9105,26.7432,26.5646,26.4104,26.1267,25.8475,25.6768,25.0121,24.7694,24.7744,24.7304,24.5866,24.3714,23.3936,22.726,22.152,21.2834,21.0943,20.9567,20.8445,21.0861,21.4844,21.8977,22.532,23.308,24.2527,25.4045,27.1718,28.9577],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"directional","eyebrow":"Trend quality","title":"Directional strength and control","description":"Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.","reason":"Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.","series":[{"label":"Trend strength","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,38.8849,37.2443,35.1974,33.2967,31.5318,30.0862,28.8556,27.9549,27.4466,27.8136,28.4815,27.7671,26.2456,25.5101,25.1062,26.325,27.9281,29.4166,31.3883,33.5718,35.1596,36.8656,38.023,38.9934,39.7207,39.9547,39.8692,38.6155,38.2519,38.1146,37.4925],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"Positive 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map","title":"Range position and boundary pressure","description":"Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range position","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,98.425,100.0,82.3055,93.7786,59.9865,76.1502,95.4619,92.2178,69.7886,67.0028,40.4463,60.8848,72.2087,59.7177,62.5021,71.0663,60.5618,68.8907,66.7087,62.6726,56.8425,44.4857,38.9236,40.9736,34.9511,21.4016,5.3552,0.0,0.0,25.1811,42.5488,73.7273,89.8342,100.0,99.7687,88.063,94.829,100.0,73.1307,77.2961,84.1805,75.4721,74.5134,79.293,70.0133,68.8279,68.7409,81.9151,84.2582,76.3003],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"From 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pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,27.713,15.3231,616.5223,43.3636,211.534,146.8624,9.622,212.184,87.7836,68.1328,42.3425,0.805,23.1714,15.8573,13.2379,4.9197,5.5027,25.3226,10.5177,5.1214,3.1596,0.6677,15.3805,87.2375,47.4898,225.5867,81.3846,15.7352,260.0,211.1879,17.3974,155.0338,40.6125,124.1915,1913.1879,954.1839,114.558,35.5552,662.0412,18.0281,798.5641,20.7465,8.3533,38.3391,5.7175,200.8172,24.4967,8.0774,71.5227,88.1307],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative 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impulse","title":"Acceleration, deceleration and rollover","description":"The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.","reason":"Selected because the latest impulse is unusually active or is approaching a change of 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