{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CERA Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"743676d7-855a-43a1-8fc1-5773e184bca9","symbol":"CERA","name":"Cera Sanitaryware Limited","exchange":"NSI","country":"IN","asset_type":"equity","currency":"INR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Building Products & Equipment"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":14,"completedEpisodes":12,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":5.8,"averageExpectedMove":10.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":14,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":-1.4,"confidenceLow":21.4,"confidenceHigh":67.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":12,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":25.0,"averageReturn":-5.1,"medianReturn":-7.7,"confidenceLow":8.9,"confidenceHigh":53.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":12,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":41.7,"averageReturn":-4.4,"medianReturn":-20.7,"confidenceLow":19.3,"confidenceHigh":68.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Support weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics has weakened over four weeks","use":"Use the weaker four-week path as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","confirm":"Treat the weaker support as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.7% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-10","price":5162.0}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[9648.9033,9129.4609,9095.7822,8372.9824,8191.7617,8046.8442,7906.6328,7824.9624,7696.1421,6926.0425,7193.1924,6984.9302,6942.832,6933.3228,7342.9629,7794.4038,7610.8066,7224.6919,7124.7456,7454.0029,6821.7876,6842.688,6435.4746,6624.9663,6721.8413,6112.6064,5771.5122,5241.2236,5510.7012,5150.1426,5547.8467,5585.4873,5459.2427,5342.5068,5602.5249,5419.7695,5299.9136,5776.8608,6475.6909,6305.3169,6301.8501,6547.0103,6931.8369,6541.562,6751.5576,6750.0,6673.5,6921.5,6613.5,6434.0,6205.5,6398.0,6528.5,6311.0,6341.0,6322.0,6264.0,6179.5,6148.5,5967.0,6002.0,6072.0,6226.5,5997.0,5617.0,5584.5,5537.0,5344.0,5258.5,5291.5,5181.0,5258.0,5121.5,5196.0,4939.0,5000.0,5167.1001,5111.7998,5095.3999,4886.3999,4742.5,4524.2998,4753.7002,4640.5,4677.2998,5162.0,5325.1001,5328.2998,5252.6001,5782.0,5635.5,5708.0,5564.5,5449.5815,6073.8735,6374.4038,6258.2446,6386.2666,6313.5,6047.0,6017.0,6119.0,6062.0,5872.0],"consensus":[12.0258,-10.8236,0.0,-56.6256,-38.0357,-45.2107,-44.4038,-32.4234,-43.7636,-72.5762,-17.4394,-56.0179,-35.8896,-35.4741,17.7758,45.6745,0.0,-32.6512,-33.7528,17.5211,-56.2936,-18.65,-60.4728,0.0,-12.183,-67.093,-64.1631,-74.8993,-11.8064,-66.9584,0.0,-14.6614,-34.5396,-20.4859,0.0,-36.3266,-29.2145,43.1484,63.9907,10.7134,21.8983,52.0713,62.7077,-11.099,50.7037,23.1902,0.0,50.6485,-19.8525,-21.5624,-38.8873,0.0,12.3958,-24.5593,0.0,-12.4239,-24.6291,-20.1,-15.2743,-46.7748,-20.925,0.0,21.5636,-35.9725,-68.5057,-46.3057,-36.3072,-63.1965,-53.3818,-28.8412,-53.4362,-10.0569,-53.2825,-10.2004,-59.6642,-17.3196,13.7543,-28.3911,-11.5672,-50.8735,-46.8483,-70.0616,0.0,-41.1366,0.0,56.7918,51.1115,23.4295,9.8215,74.3092,0.0,36.9714,0.0,-12.979,66.2963,70.4294,32.44,42.3744,24.5179,-20.9186,0.0,11.5249,-10.0907,29.9828],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[17.7615,-29.708,0.0,-15.4124,-26.0713,-18.2708,-11.1688,-51.6345,-17.8375,0.0,25.0894,-43.35,-68.4756,-49.8211,-26.4398,-67.8063,-56.7325,-26.5069,-56.1735,-3.2492,-57.2705,-4.9621,-59.9423,-7.9172,9.9268,-32.6866,-20.3738,-59.4084,-47.9118,-71.0252,0.0,-38.4034,0.0,48.7787,49.2231,11.7686,5.6256,70.4664,0.0,31.4927,0.0,-15.1546,71.0657,75.2672,24.4789,36.5039,15.6087,-20.0632,0.0,15.7597,-6.6377,26.6898],"force":[15.123,-30.6016,0.0,-9.2162,-23.5536,-18.4755,-4.2797,-43.7224,-3.3942,0.0,40.5538,-49.1419,-90.1094,-27.9616,-23.2579,-58.7229,-39.4707,-2.6039,-43.6034,-22.5171,-54.8386,-20.9875,-68.3322,-11.9153,61.0871,-24.9398,-2.0023,-56.3821,-37.5194,-84.4699,0.0,-42.4764,0.0,90.2834,53.9967,3.2131,13.6911,94.1029,0.0,21.9858,0.0,-29.5326,67.3505,67.522,0.21,18.005,5.2319,-63.191,0.0,9.1814,-31.0387,56.2905],"direction":[4.3155,-14.3591,0.0,-11.2997,-23.749,-23.3509,-27.8196,-43.4012,-36.9756,0.0,3.9697,-18.1345,-53.109,-55.3911,-56.9052,-61.1235,-59.4887,-53.9699,-57.3311,-41.1041,-47.6134,-38.4642,-53.1548,-48.9472,15.6807,-25.9472,-8.3345,-37.1847,-52.2964,-58.6686,0.0,-43.3034,0.0,42.0269,51.2087,51.1966,44.27,64.5625,0.0,53.9367,0.0,-1.3314,60.0925,66.977,64.5598,66.4903,55.9496,-8.2984,0.0,8.3591,-0.9259,14.9552],"intensity":[26.9231,25.0,13.4615,3.8462,3.8462,50.0,15.3846,19.2308,3.8462,9.6154,17.3077,38.4615,65.3846,51.9231,28.8462,30.7692,23.0769,13.4615,26.9231,13.4615,19.2308,15.3846,59.6154,25.0,46.1538,50.0,15.3846,50.0,78.8462,53.8462,63.4615,48.0769,19.2308,98.0769,92.3077,67.3077,23.0769,98.0769,84.6154,75.0,28.8462,78.8462,100.0,80.7692,59.6154,40.3846,11.5385,78.8462,59.6154,61.5385,3.8462,82.6923],"confirmation":[49.3013,75.9647,24.2353,71.8323,75.8266,74.4104,49.9486,82.8009,51.5421,4.4158,52.7587,79.8001,90.5807,82.2052,79.371,88.0163,84.6071,54.1953,84.7582,7.1328,85.0371,6.8708,87.3525,7.3365,31.9141,76.9145,48.6091,84.3174,82.6909,90.8441,11.4518,81.2462,5.0041,87.3162,84.4724,52.3924,6.7826,92.4407,10.506,79.4576,31.0148,50.242,89.1743,90.3751,54.8532,80.9066,53.5243,32.4323,25.3659,71.552,26.7842,78.4464],"persistence":[0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,37.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[23.7181,11.2639,24.3663,11.9694,33.1675,23.6929,34.0893,25.3135,37.0945,32.6563,15.7717,29.1613,15.1729,26.7556,31.8432,18.3956,22.8427,34.2067,22.7232,21.8629,10.8564,24.0231,16.6132,39.1062,8.1671,16.9934,49.5611,10.7542,26.4897,14.9585,50.193,25.9262,17.0487,21.4342,24.0783,38.2166,44.8507,12.3688,39.5813,27.663,41.7989,38.2872,13.5273,14.1578,33.2675,28.7341,25.2706,31.9466,34.3483,44.3955,35.3363,17.3521],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":30.0,"control":26.7,"force":56.3,"direction":15.0,"confirmation":78.4,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":17.4,"intensity":82.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+30.0","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+26.7","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+56.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM 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through its trend 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