{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SLON Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"74a178bf-82b3-4210-be4a-ad55b093f0b2","symbol":"SLON","name":"PROSHARES ULTRA SOLANA ETF","exchange":"NYSEARCA","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":58,"displayedObservations":58,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":11.6,"averageExpectedMove":11.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":1.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":-46.6,"medianReturn":-46.6,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":-38.0,"medianReturn":-38.0,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough 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Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":-38.0,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -38.0% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 11.6% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[],"reversal_dangers":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[227.9395,228.8268,186.6797,213.4468,221.5311,253.5235,256.9249,262.0022,357.9793,336.2896,238.0942,313.7,238.25,185.05,205.2,190.65,137.4,98.3,79.8,90.95,83.2,81.45,74.15,68.0,78.25,83.0,94.55,70.6,59.65,30.5,28.75,28.5,25.45,27.35,29.9,29.5,25.2,22.85,26.55,29.0,26.95,25.3,30.7,28.45,25.15,23.62,13.92,15.1939,16.16,17.68,21.3501,19.9949,18.37,17.71,17.3074,17.6384,18.1037,26.4],"consensus":[52.6907,-69.5334,-91.1303,52.1851,0.0,34.3762,21.8697,22.8313,77.4933,18.8734,-44.7653,53.0734,-51.6588,-60.5556,-8.9302,-39.988,-56.2541,-61.9516,-54.0939,-30.3967,-36.7358,-38.027,-29.3728,-38.8833,0.0,-19.9522,0.0,-36.2674,-38.2053,-61.2838,-31.8288,-24.7085,-37.4644,-27.3439,-15.1972,-25.0358,-32.5293,-28.6452,0.0,0.0,-13.9076,-11.219,17.067,-19.1463,-20.2507,-16.2539,-45.496,-17.9,-26.0391,0.0,17.2303,0.0,-10.8775,-17.7427,-19.2287,0.0,-9.487,54.5162],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[12.4883,16.1248,74.6765,6.2309,-41.5908,49.0428,-43.6826,-48.6311,-2.9811,-31.7473,-48.2426,-67.206,-54.6324,-25.2476,-33.9909,-46.0585,-31.3911,-45.1276,0.0,-27.2279,0.0,-46.9607,-44.6928,-58.5098,-25.5892,-15.769,-38.8686,-38.1432,-20.0696,-36.5847,-46.2344,-38.2594,0.0,0.0,-22.2126,-18.4342,17.5871,-29.9223,-31.5956,-25.829,-56.4849,-16.5358,-34.6259,0.0,14.8387,0.0,-23.611,-32.9795,-29.1557,0.0,-21.0317,48.5208],"force":[10.7488,13.0562,88.9951,21.3349,-81.4313,71.9854,-79.1493,-78.7726,-20.3426,-34.2354,-72.037,-58.4687,-41.6675,-1.4281,-15.8808,-16.0518,-10.8241,-18.4354,0.0,-0.8398,0.0,-33.0304,-27.1837,-75.9398,-9.7998,-2.0379,-19.1001,-3.1207,-7.0666,-9.3057,-22.2547,-15.9716,0.0,0.0,-5.5931,-2.3894,36.2836,-23.0152,-17.6592,-9.9403,-43.0167,-2.6724,-14.9886,0.0,27.3973,0.0,-7.6589,-14.3885,-16.0732,0.0,-7.0521,76.666],"direction":[40.5348,37.4781,72.497,62.0422,-22.2033,44.1713,-41.1385,-61.1715,-36.6383,-53.5151,-54.1367,-58.4343,-62.3543,-59.0135,-54.7692,-44.5446,-40.3152,-46.3526,0.0,-26.4886,0.0,-26.3587,-38.6634,-53.9854,-54.6947,-51.1184,-48.9769,-32.3042,-25.5315,-23.0728,-24.2052,-26.7101,0.0,0.0,-10.3551,-9.2798,2.7464,-4.0672,-9.1363,-9.8207,-34.7083,-30.3359,-24.1188,0.0,12.7014,0.0,-1.3761,-2.7251,-10.1374,0.0,-1.9677,45.5469],"intensity":[50.0,14.2857,100.0,55.5556,100.0,81.8182,75.0,84.6154,14.2857,6.6667,56.25,41.1765,44.4444,5.2632,5.0,4.7619,22.7273,8.6957,16.6667,24.0,23.0769,40.7407,25.0,51.7241,36.6667,3.2258,6.25,9.0909,2.9412,2.8571,16.6667,18.9189,15.7895,15.3846,5.0,7.3171,28.5714,23.2558,34.0909,6.6667,41.3043,34.0426,18.75,8.1633,24.0,3.9216,7.6923,1.9231,3.8462,5.7692,5.7692,53.8462],"confirmation":[74.8023,75.1103,93.1913,9.5582,83.4907,85.6213,85.4902,88.1147,6.3959,80.7464,86.6044,87.6383,84.9231,54.4735,79.1617,79.3765,76.8032,79.7243,5.7822,51.1527,3.4553,79.344,79.7909,88.0997,77.6089,52.6854,79.4075,53.1806,50.9512,75.3561,77.8874,76.6337,4.667,3.1097,49.4038,48.5444,51.3725,51.4138,74.2284,72.8629,82.3157,50.618,75.8649,25.2922,73.86,26.1687,26.1489,50.6766,73.9057,1.0831,25.8722,86.2116],"persistence":[28.5714,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[38.7795,37.3371,11.1956,39.5007,3.6764,12.0546,23.0456,19.3774,22.8145,29.0822,19.5652,15.0726,22.0751,32.4852,20.1519,0.3459,8.1707,8.2342,5.2198,13.3829,37.6532,24.9732,18.6947,19.2499,34.0828,37.5542,31.0414,0.1403,12.5903,16.8647,15.1732,5.4212,14.8484,2.3435,17.3532,20.4581,36.5215,0.0072,16.9624,18.1007,27.2383,40.9738,36.1787,43.4217,39.4492,46.6259,33.1656,9.2977,31.3098,31.8621,0.4225,21.7062],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":54.5,"control":48.5,"force":76.7,"direction":45.5,"confirmation":86.2,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":21.7,"intensity":53.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+54.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+48.5","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+76.7","detail":"Upward 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risk","title":"Drawdown and recovery pressure","description":"Capital impairment and recovery are shown together so return is not separated from path difficulty.","reason":"Selected because the current recovery or drawdown path is central to the tape.","series":[{"label":"Drawdown","values":[0.0,0.0,-18.4188,-6.7212,-3.1883,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-6.0589,-33.4894,-12.3692,-33.4459,-48.3071,-42.6783,-46.7427,-61.6179,-72.5403,-77.7082,-74.5935,-76.7584,-77.2473,-79.2865,-81.0045,-78.1412,-76.8143,-73.5879,-80.2782,-83.337,-91.48,-91.9688,-92.0386,-92.8907,-92.3599,-91.6476,-91.7593,-92.9605,-93.617,-92.5834,-91.899,-92.4716,-92.9326,-91.4241,-92.0526,-92.9745,-93.4019,-96.1115,-95.7556,-95.4858,-95.0612,-94.0359,-94.4145,-94.8684,-95.0528,-95.1653,-95.0728,-94.9428,-92.6253],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9,"fill":"rgba(193,63,63,.10)"},{"label":"Recovery","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,40.3486,91.7613,80.1426,27.5416,68.0419,27.625,0.0,10.8889,3.0262,0.0,0.0,0.0,13.9724,4.2607,2.0677,0.0,0.0,15.0735,22.0588,39.0441,3.8235,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,7.4656,17.4853,15.9136,0.0,0.0,16.1926,26.9147,17.9431,10.7221,34.3545,24.5077,10.0656,3.3698,0.0,9.1516,16.092,27.0115,53.3772,43.6415,31.9684,27.227,24.3348,26.7126,30.0553,89.6552],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Prior 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map","title":"Range position and boundary pressure","description":"Price location inside its observed range shows whether the tape is pressing an outer boundary or rotating through value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range position","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,67.3701,99.1894,74.8783,28.7138,64.2583,28.787,5.3417,14.9948,8.7126,8.7019,0.7999,1.5173,5.0604,3.373,2.8213,3.3239,1.4398,4.5799,6.0351,9.5734,2.2363,0.8919,1.6543,1.3999,1.3316,0.7087,1.2266,1.9216,2.2009,0.7778,0.4474,2.2377,3.6698,2.6674,2.6186,7.4052,8.4915,4.5204,2.7169,1.061,2.5302,3.6443,5.3973,9.6299,8.067,8.4901,8.0928,12.0825,21.4245,23.5737,61.8938],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"From 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quality","title":"Directional strength and control","description":"Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.","reason":"Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.","series":[{"label":"Trend strength","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,13.7049,14.4271,15.3989,16.9921,18.488,19.8771,21.2276,22.3683,23.4275,24.3027,25.225,26.1793,27.0655,27.6142,28.1236,28.6711,28.7952,28.5765,28.5426,28.6286,29.1912,29.7137,29.8268,30.0608,29.8976,29.693,29.6045,29.5223,29.4969,29.4855,29.3085,27.8977],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"Positive 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SLON Technical Research Pack, completed week 2026-08-21, https://sharemaestro.com/terminal/74a178bf-82b3-4210-be4a-ad55b093f0b2/technical-pack/","data_notes":{"time_series":"Parallel time-series arrays align by index with their dates array.","events":"Sparse chart markers are published as compact dated event records rather than null-filled arrays.","missing_values":"A remaining null in an aligned series means that observation is genuinely unavailable; zero remains a valid value."},"boundary":"Completed market observations and published proprietary outputs only. Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}