{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UPSG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-07-31","ticker":{"uuid":"74cf38fe-1277-4066-acbe-457edaf92923","symbol":"UPSG","name":"Leverage Shares 2X Long UPS Daily ETF","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-07-31","observations":34,"displayedObservations":34,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence developing","headline":"Price structure is visible; Market Dynamics is not yet established","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","take":"Treat movement through the zones as price-location context only. Reaching the upper zone shows extension, but without an established Market Dynamics read it does not by itself establish active distribution, divergence or reversal risk.","tone":"neutral","conflict":false},"marketDynamics":{"available":true,"readAvailable":false,"dates":["2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31"],"values":[0.406183,0.583649,0.616639,0.67274,0.652571,0.495184],"opens":[16.63,16.65,17.26,18.325,18.32,18.44],"highs":[17.1066,17.5138,18.23,19.6817,19.1119,18.44],"lows":[15.51,16.14,16.99,18.1,18.0,15.675],"closes":[16.7766,17.5138,18.0939,19.6817,18.555,15.7966],"hoverRows":[[{"label":"Open","value":"16.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"17.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"15.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"16.8","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"16.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"17.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"16.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"17.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"17.3","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"18.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"17.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"18.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.3","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"19.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"18.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"19.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"Reversal warning","className":"is-caution","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.3","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"19.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"18.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"18.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"Reversal danger","className":"is-negative","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"18.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"18.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"15.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"15.8","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}]],"pressureRange":[-2.3,2.3],"priceRange":[15.563494,19.914806],"zones":{"accumulationBoundary":-1.5,"accumulationDarkBoundary":-2.0,"distributionBoundary":1.5,"distributionDarkBoundary":2.0},"state":"Insufficient history","context":{"scenario":"developing","latestDirection":"easing","fourWeekDirection":"weakening","now":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeek":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"price":{"label":"Price and Market Dynamics are broadly aligned","detail":"The current price response is broadly consistent with the underlying Market Dynamics path."}},"diagnosis":{"label":"Zone progression","detail":"Across the displayed history, price has moved from the upper positioning area into the lower accumulation zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to classify the move.","tone":"neutral"},"chartSummary":"Price is in the accumulation zone. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying conditions are repairing or continuing to weaken.","summary":"Across the displayed history, price has moved from the upper positioning area into the lower accumulation zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to classify the move.","annotations":[{"label":"Current tape relationship","value":"Zone progression","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Price location","value":"Accumulation zone","detail":"Price is in the lower accumulation area. With limited Market Dynamics history, the zone describes location rather than a completed positioning signal.","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Latest positioning marker","value":"None in view","detail":"Entering the lower zone alone does not create a positioning confirmation.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Market Dynamics confirmation","value":"Unavailable","detail":"Too little usable Market Dynamics history is available for a directional confirmation read.","tone":"neutral"}],"relationshipEvidence":{"available":false,"observations":22,"summary":"More completed weekly history is needed for a dependable ticker-level record."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":19.6817}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-07-24","price":18.555}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31"],"close":[15.3639,15.6378,15.1819,15.2322,17.5397,17.0949,17.3518,16.738,20.2913,20.7863,20.4956,20.1345,15.5981,14.0194,13.6793,13.3028,14.2286,15.1382,16.5588,16.677,16.7591,14.4582,13.9123,14.9448,16.7,17.1727,16.84,15.9525,16.7766,17.5138,18.0939,19.6817,18.555,15.7966],"consensus":[26.1524,47.8311,-48.6429,58.0,81.1059,23.4831,57.1575,0.0,88.5996,62.8618,40.8054,42.7424,-69.136,-76.4283,-60.6516,-64.1094,-14.0827,23.139,46.5328,23.656,18.453,-42.9973,-39.9048,0.0,41.9039,34.037,19.4796,-17.5919,24.7156,40.8462,46.4042,66.7444,16.7733,-50.2679],"supportDates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,1.4184,53.2806,0.0,92.0245,52.0758,32.2585,35.4576,-55.8429,-75.2053,-61.818,-63.7423,-1.5051,18.0063,44.3194,20.4579,9.6687,-35.5022,-37.0104,0.0,54.434,26.0577,12.6945,-30.6942,28.4702,47.7494,49.5913,75.1077,9.4836,-53.3413],"force":[26.1524,47.8311,-48.6429,58.0,54.7041,19.8593,33.8019,0.0,87.4722,49.7831,1.4621,7.2195,-84.434,-74.4337,-33.238,-44.9993,-24.1638,81.3173,76.2533,18.35,14.8896,-62.7547,-26.8683,0.0,55.667,33.3868,5.2242,-36.7048,30.4868,45.1786,43.8546,61.318,13.4594,-65.5219],"direction":[null,null,null,null,99.9643,79.6586,78.2708,0.0,85.4907,84.5306,80.7645,76.4414,-73.4011,-79.2509,-78.8998,-78.1791,-59.2161,12.5511,27.8336,31.1008,31.0376,-37.4507,-52.5243,0.0,17.753,43.6207,37.4165,-11.0343,16.3023,29.8622,44.5829,61.0623,46.6991,-35.8597],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,100.0,80.0,16.6667,71.4286,100.0,77.7778,60.0,36.3636,100.0,92.3077,57.1429,40.0,56.25,52.9412,66.6667,63.1579,55.0,85.7143,31.8182,56.5217,75.0,72.0,61.5385,37.037,35.7143,34.4828,40.0,74.1935,59.375,87.8788],"confirmation":[31.0354,37.9726,38.2324,41.2267,70.0803,10.7665,85.6377,37.2187,96.2653,87.8816,57.5451,58.0393,90.7923,92.4149,86.5553,87.9382,9.0544,34.6,83.83,75.4569,73.9302,82.4755,80.4163,32.7555,81.6378,78.9936,51.2358,31.0329,76.0277,81.0976,82.7231,89.0654,30.0952,55.0],"persistence":[null,null,33.3333,50.0,60.0,66.6667,71.4286,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,7.8746,32.8175,20.4788,47.7645,3.737,18.1866,28.8464,28.1888,14.8536,11.7309,19.6227,17.8948,24.7643,17.0762,23.0412,36.036,35.4597,0.5589,27.2012,44.0709,22.7298,32.2098,39.9456,46.0066,8.7169,4.6184,18.7452,16.5481,37.7398,17.5629],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-50.3,"control":-53.3,"force":-65.5,"direction":-35.9,"confirmation":55.0,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":17.6,"intensity":87.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Completed tape has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Completed tape","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-50.3","detail":"Completed tape has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-53.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-65.5","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-35.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"55/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"48.0","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"10.3%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"12.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"31%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[15.3639,15.6378,15.1819,15.2322,17.5397,17.0949,17.3518,16.738,20.2913,20.7863,20.4956,20.1345,15.5981,14.0194,13.6793,13.3028,14.2286,15.1382,16.5588,16.677,16.7591,14.4582,13.9123,14.9448,16.7,17.1727,16.84,15.9525,16.7766,17.5138,18.0939,19.6817,18.555,15.7966],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,15.745,15.9905,16.238,16.3289,17.0493,17.7288,18.2318,18.5778,18.036,17.3057,16.6464,16.0385,15.7094,15.6055,15.7789,15.9422,16.0907,15.7939,15.4518,15.3596,15.6033,15.8886,16.0616,16.0418,16.1754,16.4187,16.7233,17.2612,17.4964,17.1874],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,16.943,16.7264,16.5007,16.2638,16.1131,16.0409,16.0792,16.1235,16.1706,16.0438,15.8859,15.8162,15.8816,15.9773,16.0412,16.0346,16.0896,16.1951,16.3357,16.5836,16.7296,16.6605],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,20.9415,21.5549,21.8784,21.6998,21.6767,21.6441,21.6108,21.4676,21.2978,21.1717,21.0615,21.0986,21.1203,21.1661,21.169,21.1034,21.1096,21.0695,21.0321,20.5045,19.8525,19.289,19.1571,19.4993,19.4639],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,13.302,13.3021,13.4296,13.2919,12.8184,12.3752,11.9451,11.7884,11.7927,11.9202,12.0435,12.1459,12.0063,11.8335,11.8019,11.7835,11.7851,11.774,11.7328,11.9089,12.2337,12.5571,12.6437,12.5972,12.8103],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31"]},{"key":"participation","eyebrow":"Participation","title":"Activity pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,196.62,75.8262,121.7111,42.2554,22.0034,74.4746,104.0946,31.1122,102.9457,21.629,202.01,105.0128,96.0517,114.6163,550.2953,37.8704,36.7785,43.0424,119.4319,52.0672,40.6169,41.6739,53.2408,61.0676,27.8225,27.7199,23.1435],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative balance","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,105.6383,116.6295,134.7079,128.7741,125.8888,116.3265,102.9188,99.0993,86.4366,88.9728,114.1728,127.3093,135.0,135.0,76.0907,72.1177,76.0161,80.5946,93.5964,88.3297,84.5292,88.3605,93.0698,98.5209,101.0131,98.582,96.6298],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Typical activity","values":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31"]},{"key":"drawdown","eyebrow":"Path risk","title":"Drawdown and recovery pressure","description":"Capital impairment and recovery are shown together so return is not separated from path difficulty.","reason":"Selected because the current recovery or drawdown path is central to the tape.","series":[{"label":"Drawdown","values":[0.0,0.0,-2.9154,-2.5937,0.0,-2.536,-1.0713,-4.5708,0.0,0.0,-1.3985,-3.1357,-24.9597,-32.5546,-34.1908,-36.0021,-31.5482,-27.1722,-20.3379,-19.7693,-19.3743,-30.4436,-33.0699,-28.1026,-19.6586,-17.3845,-18.9851,-23.2547,-19.2901,-15.7435,-12.9528,-5.3141,-10.7345,-24.0048],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9,"fill":"rgba(193,63,63,.10)"},{"label":"Recovery","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,10.2497,33.6545,36.915,35.0002,32.6217,2.7414,0.0,0.0,0.0,6.9594,13.7971,24.4761,25.3646,25.9817,8.6854,4.5817,12.3433,25.5375,29.0909,26.5899,19.9184,26.1133,31.655,36.0157,47.9516,39.4819,18.7464],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Prior high","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31"]},{"key":"volatility","eyebrow":"Risk geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}