{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ESL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"75108957-e650-45aa-8204-341874bb73b6","symbol":"ESL","name":"EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Medical Instruments & Supplies"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned downward","stateTone":"negative","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":8.5,"averageExpectedMove":10.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":29.4,"averageReturn":-1.2,"medianReturn":-2.3,"confidenceLow":13.3,"confidenceHigh":53.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":5.9,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":62.5,"averageReturn":-4.4,"medianReturn":2.5,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":81.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":56.2,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 56.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.7% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 10.8% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-11-21","price":300.791199}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[206.78,209.473,201.2018,202.0674,196.1044,203.8947,202.3559,205.8183,206.2991,211.3965,208.3189,219.5715,219.8601,227.0733,221.4951,222.2645,221.976,221.976,225.0536,221.8798,223.5148,237.5566,246.3087,255.2531,259.004,282.7597,279.7782,275.4502,261.4084,252.2716,256.5996,256.5996,234.4789,231.0166,243.4234,243.9043,246.501,239.1481,258.1978,245.5957,239.9296,243.0557,235.7289,235.2404,228.5974,227.6205,237.8781,237.6827,244.4234,248.2333,246.9633,265.5247,264.5478,254.3879,251.2618,258.5886,267.3808,265.427,275.3915,267.6739,305.9688,305.0896,310.0718,299.1305,311.5372,300.7912,301.6704,299.6189,275.0984,270.5069,263.3755,258.6863,268.7485,263.7662,260.054,252.8248,249.3079,253.8994,231.8212,221.0752,207.4961,200.4623,190.3513,189.4232,187.0298,194.6009,210.8176,181.5102,177.2607,171.6,174.35,173.65,175.7,173.4,182.5,173.55,168.7,172.7,171.6,167.1,163.0,164.85,172.55,162.5],"consensus":[46.7475,50.2574,-24.6594,0.0,-47.6019,31.7837,0.0,36.7524,17.9485,47.9463,0.0,68.4288,34.1546,72.956,9.8033,35.1246,23.4577,0.0,47.7604,0.0,23.8471,76.6822,80.3354,80.677,65.6575,87.1144,26.4173,28.438,-12.9046,-34.7839,19.5338,-11.2387,-67.5979,-31.2816,9.1928,-9.0706,20.7982,-28.4919,51.9277,-29.0003,-38.5413,12.881,-45.4482,-27.2524,-52.7152,-39.366,23.225,0.0,35.4251,27.2852,10.26,71.6,34.1215,-18.0649,0.0,24.9283,50.416,22.0406,63.8943,0.0,77.2546,35.077,54.4318,0.0,55.575,0.0,11.595,16.8351,-64.2348,-48.1466,-55.3578,-58.3124,0.0,-46.513,-31.2644,-42.5246,-52.3402,-12.4904,-73.9123,-75.8151,-72.7926,-70.151,-80.0429,-50.6458,-53.8868,-9.8294,32.7471,-72.3309,-48.6421,-55.3124,-20.2177,-32.0674,-17.9461,-38.3679,0.0,-42.0531,-19.7353,-13.1945,-29.7996,-33.2699,-40.944,-22.3963,25.5617,-54.4211],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[30.982,-23.8041,0.0,33.3546,52.8432,20.5271,63.4676,0.0,72.0965,26.2067,50.8601,0.0,63.0751,0.0,16.4526,20.9612,-58.9719,-43.9214,-60.2262,-63.9666,0.0,-44.137,-31.695,-36.1564,-53.8409,-4.892,-70.2675,-76.5606,-67.4153,-67.3366,-79.2711,-47.5999,-51.8677,-6.7092,28.2053,-76.5131,-52.5274,-55.8498,-7.0253,-31.973,-18.5793,-55.8632,0.0,-61.0935,-12.9793,-17.7941,-32.946,-34.5804,-47.2627,-27.1089,20.0307,-58.6107],"force":[10.9164,-72.6521,0.0,28.3889,63.4325,5.8027,73.5563,0.0,98.4861,2.7882,39.4315,0.0,46.4391,0.0,8.5038,2.1421,-97.0035,-48.8624,-41.2145,-41.7405,0.0,-53.7625,-14.3975,-40.8755,-36.0466,-23.7431,-89.9892,-82.6743,-80.4757,-67.9448,-86.147,-21.2291,-31.9747,-49.1147,92.3782,-91.1653,-32.0063,-43.162,-15.6528,-8.3851,-9.1234,-21.5299,0.0,-33.4437,-2.8219,-6.8934,-16.9301,-28.5241,-36.1823,-2.0992,69.0808,-82.8674],"direction":[54.2847,-27.4851,0.0,12.8265,38.3446,43.6583,57.4805,0.0,67.9841,68.278,69.2284,0.0,53.5291,0.0,20.3998,25.6747,-46.8434,-52.4641,-59.8963,-63.6874,0.0,-44.0501,-42.8199,-50.9805,-62.2633,-47.0552,-66.5942,-70.0637,-73.4501,-74.9432,-76.5649,-75.1388,-71.846,-55.4983,4.656,-54.0979,-56.0845,-63.3771,-60.9166,-49.0913,-36.5577,-30.4005,0.0,-26.4421,-39.5373,-22.2861,-35.3963,-35.1621,-37.1239,-34.5074,0.7977,-29.3144],"intensity":[78.8462,61.5385,57.6923,59.6154,50.0,5.7692,57.6923,46.1538,100.0,100.0,21.1538,65.3846,69.2308,59.6154,9.6154,30.7692,94.2308,82.6923,61.5385,11.5385,46.1538,30.7692,78.8462,57.6923,7.6923,61.5385,92.3077,78.8462,84.6154,32.6923,48.0769,9.6154,13.4615,36.5385,84.6154,96.1538,90.3846,15.3846,17.3077,28.8462,1.9231,5.7692,44.2308,57.6923,40.3846,23.0769,1.9231,42.3077,13.4615,17.3077,40.3846,57.6923],"confirmation":[78.2595,35.8871,28.2794,75.9541,84.4928,52.7987,88.7471,32.6832,93.4471,55.7091,85.0155,37.6513,85.3913,32.4188,27.5047,50.5363,89.634,83.4931,85.2093,86.0687,33.8691,83.1413,77.484,81.6547,84.2294,8.0736,92.1974,92.4585,91.6097,90.424,93.8115,83.3566,84.6068,11.8744,58.6922,91.6561,82.9993,85.3215,8.9168,77.5413,29.5211,79.498,25.9908,80.9045,51.2361,50.3439,77.0957,78.4818,80.8607,52.1296,54.9237,44.64],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[32.6381,43.159,28.9757,49.5917,7.0648,34.6951,17.9241,42.8674,11.198,32.3072,22.4373,49.3674,6.7845,12.3658,35.2131,6.4496,17.2463,24.4866,21.8229,20.5319,23.0541,7.942,1.6911,7.6136,22.6993,36.434,12.8589,12.0132,13.5944,14.9245,9.9768,24.6508,22.5586,28.184,32.3554,6.4353,10.1042,20.5202,39.7229,15.6662,1.5768,28.0356,31.6737,20.5439,19.483,3.2691,24.5475,14.6449,21.5672,35.4826,3.3351,6.6939],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-54.4,"control":-58.6,"force":-82.9,"direction":-29.3,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":6.7,"intensity":57.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-54.4","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-58.6","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-82.9","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-29.3","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"34.2","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.7%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"29.7","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"2%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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