{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BMKS3 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"786af84b-f2b7-4629-b9e2-1cf916bf4b9a","symbol":"BMKS3","name":"Bicicletas Monark S.A.","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Leisure"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":3.9,"averageExpectedMove":4.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":-1.8,"medianReturn":-1.7,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":95.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":1.6,"medianReturn":2.9,"confidenceLow":6.1,"confidenceHigh":79.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":2.8,"medianReturn":2.8,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":4},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":4},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":4},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":37.5,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 37.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 7.7% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 33.3% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.3% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":370.100006}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-11-07","price":378.373138},{"date":"2026-01-16","price":375.258148},{"date":"2026-03-20","price":375.950165},{"date":"2026-06-05","price":389.920013}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[212.0481,210.3449,222.3085,228.8068,215.4682,209.996,210.6116,212.0481,210.68,210.0165,212.3354,210.7484,210.4064,211.3641,211.3504,212.0481,217.4519,213.4161,215.4682,229.1488,228.4647,230.1816,236.0164,251.0376,253.0897,245.9074,242.1452,242.8293,249.6011,246.2494,262.666,260.614,260.614,259.9299,259.9299,266.7702,275.0453,267.6117,268.355,278.7621,272.8375,296.6029,315.9304,315.1127,301.0631,297.3463,297.3463,296.6029,289.9201,286.2032,304.7799,315.9304,323.3567,326.3376,327.0809,324.1446,312.9569,323.3641,334.5071,323.3567,323.1337,312.2285,313.7078,378.3731,364.2492,362.7625,349.5631,351.3662,344.6255,351.3662,356.8216,360.7839,365.5112,375.2581,381.1063,370.3846,367.4606,368.4353,360.6475,374.2834,367.4606,368.4353,375.9502,378.4064,376.2036,386.0773,388.9039,388.9039,387.4418,393.98,370.1,371.0,371.99,389.92,390.95,381.0,389.99,384.0,387.0,380.52,379.52,377.21,378.01,360.0],"consensus":[-31.4218,-31.8077,26.5702,28.5929,-34.5178,-31.462,-20.2795,0.0,-14.1558,-17.2882,0.0,-15.8495,-16.7958,0.0,-8.9753,0.0,37.4108,-15.7455,23.4896,55.7377,31.1209,23.5355,49.122,69.9556,40.0164,8.7426,13.9039,0.0,37.0618,11.3776,61.0248,31.4551,30.085,32.065,14.6797,48.1985,48.5106,8.7439,10.1085,48.9708,0.0,60.744,60.6873,47.6624,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-12.4871,-14.9883,37.259,46.3983,44.4305,45.601,38.9348,20.2942,-25.2269,27.401,42.3489,-10.7583,18.5405,-36.9563,-12.7539,68.7069,0.0,31.0718,-8.3073,0.0,-21.0672,0.0,29.6738,15.2432,20.5572,34.4072,35.6413,-9.0221,0.0,0.0,-26.1549,32.6769,0.0,0.0,31.2611,19.2464,10.592,37.9711,21.6295,0.0,0.0,18.9903,-46.4827,-24.961,0.0,31.7779,32.8064,8.3259,34.994,-13.508,0.0,-19.8118,-22.8638,-20.9455,-15.2704,-59.0539],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[47.921,49.6964,45.1023,22.9962,-20.6602,34.2904,48.0134,-7.4996,20.8968,-36.5501,-8.2518,61.5093,0.0,29.156,-14.9249,0.0,-16.2793,0.0,40.013,12.2705,12.675,28.8821,33.928,-16.7779,0.0,0.0,-27.2283,36.424,0.0,0.0,34.2848,23.5297,9.1581,41.2389,18.2652,0.0,0.0,17.0366,-46.1637,-25.6146,0.0,51.178,39.9493,11.8145,39.2129,-14.4429,0.0,-23.929,-23.944,-20.0049,-11.4705,-50.6458],"force":[35.4722,35.4064,22.1253,0.8134,-63.6843,33.3357,45.9952,-46.0611,15.0993,-62.4658,-5.6099,93.6606,0.0,5.0981,-58.5808,0.0,-49.2787,0.0,24.9732,7.7706,16.812,36.4211,30.2817,-40.9091,0.0,0.0,-37.2956,47.2361,0.0,0.0,34.1731,13.419,4.0158,39.779,14.804,0.0,0.0,11.363,-72.062,-20.7621,0.0,29.7934,22.7704,2.381,37.5945,-23.6803,0.0,-30.3079,-23.8261,-21.9658,-15.117,-86.2999],"direction":[46.8401,48.2025,43.893,31.1212,-2.9765,15.2883,33.2706,-10.7336,18.3056,-19.1993,-23.002,59.1088,0.0,51.8141,-35.1654,0.0,-6.3882,0.0,21.215,23.978,32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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-59.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-50.6","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-86.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-49.2","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"88/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"41.6","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.8%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"20.9","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"12%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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