{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CAT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7a09130c-677b-43bf-8706-f5b0bd5fb09a","symbol":"CAT","name":"Caterpillar Inc.","exchange":"MEX","country":"MX","asset_type":"equity","currency":"MXN","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Strength versus the research benchmark, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":41.7,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":12},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 41.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 7.0% across 12 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 8.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.9% across 12 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-13","price":6770.987305}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":15515.26555}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[6639.5415,6985.1274,6458.2793,6613.0732,7189.3823,7510.9971,7531.9712,7735.728,7628.0771,7592.3022,7644.2495,7971.9175,7792.1001,8086.8013,8322.5635,7929.2012,7662.2314,7362.5356,7342.5557,7513.3823,7292.6167,7991.8774,8273.0713,7661.5845,7488.7295,7169.9956,6954.1772,7052.085,7099.0557,6704.3857,6758.3408,6749.3477,6232.7812,5974.9971,5760.1768,5986.4521,6326.251,6320.2539,6795.9722,6598.0898,6795.9722,6669.0479,6770.9873,6920.8979,7255.6997,7454.582,7555.5225,7737.5244,8048.8008,8246.7217,7701.9385,7709.2656,8126.7695,8126.7695,7856.877,7958.8364,8559.5977,8666.5547,9228.332,9269.9658,9716.1377,9677.6572,10789.1875,10500.248,10118.5498,9997.1797,10507.4561,10945.8994,11287.2578,10197.5312,10425.4766,10720.4053,11122.3066,11397.2412,10948.7998,11418.8779,12468.6328,13273.5449,12978.5771,12759.6016,12277.6543,12548.624,12362.6445,12599.499,13048.5693,13748.4932,13774.4902,14450.0,15605.1797,15400.0,15723.1904,15335.0,15215.2002,15860.0,15686.0,17005.6778,17538.0762,16664.0355,16798.4728,15515.2656,15431.0098,14177.0,14432.0,14590.0],"consensus":[61.1865,63.622,-14.3182,19.5928,71.1007,71.0273,27.431,72.3641,22.1375,13.786,29.333,60.6933,0.0,65.733,56.282,-12.9239,-26.439,-56.6951,-16.4645,0.0,-51.7464,64.2407,70.2429,-35.2091,-14.9341,-63.2619,-61.4741,-11.3925,-8.553,-66.5446,-24.3592,-46.9936,-79.685,-42.5312,-68.4755,-10.9455,19.6711,-10.6644,38.3521,-11.1026,39.772,0.0,18.9841,47.7024,69.2766,63.8518,57.5426,61.3986,81.5851,74.2945,-14.4761,18.6469,69.0696,35.6998,0.0,39.1866,70.5067,46.1047,79.55,55.2466,70.5401,41.5291,84.0464,27.3539,0.0,17.3157,51.237,70.827,76.2795,-26.1925,16.1233,40.0434,41.0482,63.1947,0.0,66.691,72.2724,81.9501,16.6316,15.941,-15.1559,28.7542,0.0,32.4529,56.9611,72.7603,50.0409,74.0377,81.804,20.5515,53.4133,37.6794,0.0,31.9803,8.8627,55.5471,49.296,20.0245,38.0934,-45.6106,-22.6707,-67.4409,-24.3049,-22.1777],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[75.2138,52.7835,0.0,42.6828,80.7231,43.1199,87.883,56.0209,62.4807,39.8665,83.9692,31.0951,0.0,6.1608,74.1596,77.4897,77.6699,-33.5107,12.898,61.228,56.8446,62.6665,0.0,72.8831,86.3555,84.8356,3.2673,2.6765,-19.1071,48.9397,0.0,42.238,67.5398,82.8243,55.0793,80.0481,84.0782,8.0761,52.9825,44.4998,0.0,25.0705,3.3392,57.1491,29.0645,12.7205,36.022,-37.1061,-11.8658,-60.0675,-18.1626,-16.5838],"force":[86.8484,7.7715,0.0,27.9851,65.3228,25.1815,77.7428,32.2004,80.9415,3.768,95.166,41.2618,0.0,10.5278,39.8375,73.2552,84.9334,-83.1332,16.5786,32.6892,32.2839,71.096,0.0,76.6526,60.6223,93.7012,23.626,20.0614,-61.6479,15.6322,0.0,33.1516,48.0742,74.9109,29.2729,78.3403,95.1479,25.2331,33.1598,3.7017,0.0,13.6281,20.4872,39.3706,55.177,17.298,15.8924,-83.3935,-23.917,-87.2701,-9.9681,-4.1773],"direction":[49.3486,36.1243,0.0,43.1919,62.5337,64.4609,71.3174,70.8233,72.3213,70.4016,76.192,72.0894,0.0,49.9523,33.1822,61.4782,68.5091,-22.8431,19.4841,21.0854,29.2555,58.1546,0.0,52.499,64.4991,70.2587,68.1287,62.934,-22.5684,15.0578,0.0,20.7708,51.2189,59.7223,59.117,64.0954,69.6737,67.5124,68.3723,59.4425,0.0,52.9858,36.1394,65.2708,68.2168,55.0308,56.3186,-28.3422,-34.1289,-61.7039,-55.8054,-47.3958],"intensity":[71.1538,63.4615,57.6923,13.4615,90.3846,82.6923,86.5385,73.0769,100.0,71.1538,100.0,82.6923,53.8462,23.0769,75.0,67.3077,75.0,98.0769,94.2308,34.6154,69.2308,67.3077,61.5385,63.4615,96.1538,94.2308,69.2308,26.9231,61.5385,38.4615,13.4615,36.5385,57.6923,88.4615,9.6154,88.4615,100.0,96.1538,30.7692,80.7692,53.8462,78.8462,26.9231,100.0,67.3077,86.5385,1.9231,100.0,86.5385,98.0769,75.0,84.6154],"confirmation":[90.5505,55.6458,32.0296,80.1451,90.2485,82.1613,93.2739,84.9648,91.0126,57.4972,95.2349,38.0743,37.1128,7.1084,83.6991,90.6371,92.652,37.5453,73.2225,80.2669,80.6276,88.4712,33.0032,89.5504,90.5575,94.5382,10.1357,9.1383,33.6878,76.4938,6.3878,78.2571,85.7955,91.1955,83.3034,91.7316,94.5493,33.421,84.4816,56.8154,7.2927,77.7797,6.3964,85.2577,84.2622,31.7386,79.5449,83.8765,75.4572,90.2978,31.6198,52.6034],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[18.4518,41.4058,29.2133,18.6214,10.2717,24.9772,10.2139,22.3597,14.6675,29.0769,7.9277,36.1725,37.7823,23.9659,54.9702,4.7749,11.5686,31.358,15.8226,40.7262,35.9601,17.4963,39.0416,12.0337,13.3015,8.9487,41.6342,41.3378,8.8308,57.4397,43.2452,33.2085,18.187,12.9806,24.7109,12.9511,9.0933,39.6159,23.2741,29.0054,35.201,23.5475,8.6005,22.0841,25.3408,33.3285,28.5964,25.6133,38.4097,16.185,37.7079,31.9338],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-22.2,"control":-16.6,"force":-4.2,"direction":-47.4,"confirmation":52.6,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":31.9,"intensity":84.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-22.2","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-16.6","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-4.2","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-47.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"53/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.9%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"38.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"46%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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