{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"NICL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7a1a49c1-325b-4c90-8b1d-c8f918197267","symbol":"NICL","name":"Nichols plc","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Beverages - Non-Alcoholic"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics is leading the current price response","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":36.4,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":22},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 36.4% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -1.8% across 22 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 6.7% across 22 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1194.4609,1129.4901,1144.4835,1104.5015,1049.5264,1024.5376,993.5516,1019.5399,1079.5127,1044.5287,1154.4789,1194.4609,1289.4181,1269.427,1299.4135,1259.4316,1299.4135,1299.4135,1289.4181,1269.427,1274.4248,1274.4248,1264.4293,1299.4135,1304.4113,1299.4135,1299.4135,1299.4135,1279.4225,1329.4,1309.5793,1284.5874,1149.6306,1179.6211,1204.613,1224.6066,1234.6034,1299.5825,1259.5955,1274.5906,1399.5504,1364.5616,1409.5471,1394.552,1384.5553,1464.5295,1369.5601,1414.5455,1419.5439,1234.6034,1164.7739,1204.7662,1194.7682,1164.7739,1139.7788,1119.7827,1189.7692,1149.7769,1129.7808,1134.7798,1084.7896,1059.7943,1034.7992,1039.7982,1019.8021,1029.8002,1014.8031,997.8064,973.811,953.8149,963.813,933.8188,971.8114,999.806,1009.8041,1014.8031,1014.8031,1014.8031,991.8076,969.8118,907.8239,999.806,944.0,910.0,954.0,940.0,950.0,936.0,980.0,946.0,930.0,948.0,936.0,942.0,986.0,962.0,964.0,928.0571,928.0571,975.1467,961.4123,1039.8949,1040.0,1110.0],"consensus":[41.0642,-16.837,13.3025,-29.3592,-40.4916,-29.838,-41.8717,-8.3047,32.0703,-19.644,57.6545,51.0972,68.7854,19.37,48.2303,9.5106,39.9399,26.5134,21.5116,0.0,0.0,9.8236,0.0,37.7075,17.0491,0.0,10.9331,0.0,-15.0386,40.7917,0.0,-18.089,-68.4639,-14.9781,0.0,0.0,0.0,38.1251,-10.6641,21.082,66.8677,8.6197,44.8632,18.712,0.0,62.1999,-27.136,30.7532,22.6894,-61.3737,-59.4392,-12.0908,-40.4423,-41.4443,-40.0977,-40.4953,9.7984,-34.7843,-25.9274,-13.9669,-42.186,-33.25,-43.8408,-23.2926,-32.591,-12.6437,-25.8921,-28.4832,-31.2221,-32.7155,-17.8563,-41.0348,0.0,12.9889,14.8608,10.0613,0.0,0.0,-20.2521,-23.9531,-52.1492,34.1926,-40.1341,-37.6862,18.8625,-20.0159,0.0,-10.2609,24.1181,-19.1994,-18.2074,9.4294,-15.3614,0.0,35.2155,0.0,0.0,-30.3136,-20.1062,34.1248,0.0,61.3,30.1411,71.7214],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-39.0968,-42.57,-47.0584,-39.5482,15.775,-39.8258,-29.1721,-18.4803,-39.6057,-29.0336,-47.2291,-17.9322,-33.0966,-9.9282,-28.6425,-30.5065,-30.4641,-31.83,-15.1877,-47.2795,0.0,7.6889,13.4707,2.0364,0.0,0.0,-21.1222,-24.9638,-44.0547,35.306,-34.6652,-35.6369,15.4723,-16.6951,0.0,-16.4324,24.2224,-25.8944,-20.3529,9.729,-13.9337,0.0,40.6812,0.0,0.0,-42.3117,-20.9193,39.312,0.0,53.9732,24.7436,70.0435],"force":[-27.9374,-33.8975,-28.9642,-30.6524,39.785,-36.849,-17.8148,-1.1787,-42.7695,-23.9734,-33.9438,-3.9996,-20.0725,-8.5387,-16.3001,-16.5988,-23.4905,-19.3741,-2.2938,-30.9208,0.0,32.5351,23.1363,11.2785,0.0,0.0,-36.1178,-27.2182,-79.7627,77.708,-73.7794,-49.1319,45.0041,-25.0403,0.0,-11.8075,37.1818,-32.2582,-22.0757,19.4584,-18.6378,0.0,36.1045,0.0,0.0,-34.4216,-14.5609,48.924,0.0,86.5802,10.2044,88.3434],"direction":[-50.912,-45.5485,-40.0952,-48.6084,18.451,-27.5478,-28.0139,-19.6269,-44.7181,-44.6948,-47.0379,-43.1994,-40.9551,-30.8774,-29.6003,-34.6598,-37.6109,-43.257,-35.299,-41.1223,0.0,5.0846,10.5384,18.3633,0.0,0.0,-7.9251,-20.4659,-41.6762,1.8376,-22.3517,-31.8529,4.0646,-20.2223,0.0,-2.103,14.6678,-2.2203,-12.9924,1.9233,-14.6529,0.0,28.3339,0.0,0.0,-13.6674,-23.1378,17.6257,0.0,51.616,50.5503,61.7662],"intensity":[63.4615,63.4615,23.0769,32.6923,75.0,63.4615,63.4615,17.3077,76.9231,59.6154,26.9231,51.9231,17.3077,17.3077,13.4615,15.3846,61.5385,21.1538,7.6923,40.3846,51.9231,59.6154,25.0,34.6154,38.4615,1.9231,76.9231,76.9231,82.6923,86.5385,71.1538,67.3077,48.0769,25.0,26.9231,7.6923,50.0,42.3077,36.5385,26.9231,7.6923,34.6154,59.6154,34.6154,9.6154,51.9231,5.7692,69.2308,17.3077,96.1538,86.5385,92.3077],"confirmation":[80.5809,81.015,80.3859,80.673,30.5612,79.1171,76.0001,49.5238,81.5566,78.4215,81.6758,52.2807,78.0399,27.9301,75.9512,76.7216,77.767,78.0759,50.9632,80.7277,5.7901,27.4996,73.0289,48.7123,25.0644,24.9266,52.2843,75.7491,85.6527,57.5842,81.9516,80.4396,52.2177,74.6088,1.1806,48.5699,76.1143,51.7731,73.9116,48.6518,73.0373,24.9773,79.2128,27.2466,24.2216,77.6427,74.2526,79.2919,49.2471,88.4981,77.1198,99.483],"persistence":[25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[29.4898,18.1956,2.1976,23.069,8.514,6.7369,5.1283,19.1483,26.293,29.2131,27.629,38.1015,32.6853,32.3713,17.1609,30.7698,30.5256,33.6327,40.8492,29.4246,6.469,42.1733,41.3138,44.9356,47.8359,33.0981,25.5611,36.793,23.9015,36.712,22.0007,26.4322,31.0598,35.2878,7.5695,34.3551,15.984,16.7236,13.1072,9.1723,31.4537,1.4641,29.7737,27.1957,37.5817,10.189,39.0345,4.9858,0.9323,19.2402,34.8573,14.1009],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":71.7,"control":70.0,"force":88.3,"direction":61.8,"confirmation":99.5,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":14.1,"intensity":92.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+71.7","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+70.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+88.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+61.8","detail":"Upward 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