{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"W1MG34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7af48be6-65c0-4c54-9168-7214dabdc846","symbol":"W1MG34","name":"Warner Music Group Corp.","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Communication Services","industry":"Entertainment"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":26.5,"averageExpectedMove":26.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.1,"medianReturn":-11.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-26.5,"medianReturn":-26.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-14.3,"medianReturn":-14.3,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-12.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-19.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-19.0,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-26.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-25.5,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-28.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-27.4,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-29.2,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-29.7,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-29.8,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-28.7,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-24.6,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-20.4,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-18.0,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-14.3,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"accumulation","zoneContext":"Price is within accumulation conditions, but the completed tape has not yet confirmed a recovery. The zone is a watch area rather than a directional signal.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":70.6,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 70.6% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -2.7% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 12.1% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":40.001541}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-02-14","price":51.323936}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[38.6898,38.803,37.3846,39.2888,40.7558,41.3095,41.0764,42.2811,44.535,45.1762,45.9535,45.9535,47.1193,45.2571,47.1884,47.9394,47.5493,45.7936,47.5493,46.6227,43.7746,44.8182,43.1503,45.0426,45.9497,51.3239,50.4114,47.8859,48.4047,45.6345,45.5954,44.685,41.7778,41.4646,41.5625,41.6212,41.5037,37.7449,38.2148,36.6584,37.2853,36.3509,36.0756,36.0165,36.6165,38.7114,40.8358,42.0947,42.8422,42.8422,42.8422,43.9831,44.0487,44.0487,44.0487,44.8882,44.1673,43.8117,45.3327,43.2191,43.2191,43.2191,42.3105,42.3105,42.3105,42.4856,42.4856,37.8443,37.0113,38.9948,38.9948,38.9948,41.1766,41.1766,39.6691,39.0344,38.9154,38.8499,38.7503,34.7358,36.8974,36.8974,31.827,31.1397,33.1686,35.0511,36.9038,36.2863,34.842,40.0015,40.5195,42.3124,43.42,36.64,37.86,36.36,35.6,34.88,36.91,36.91,34.47,33.11,33.36,32.31],"consensus":[0.0,-18.3481,-47.2791,39.4884,51.1189,26.4928,12.5571,59.1385,72.9722,59.3292,65.5595,46.0658,66.1441,-8.6576,62.0532,54.3166,18.1069,-17.9956,49.966,-14.1923,-60.7066,12.2433,-55.5185,8.5386,37.0552,77.931,28.4148,-15.2218,40.61,-53.427,-25.6374,-29.891,-75.914,-46.7598,-37.9833,-15.2803,-22.5198,-76.9346,-27.1899,-60.7336,-31.5046,-43.6059,-43.6404,-20.3501,0.0,32.3223,58.786,56.8456,55.8085,35.4946,33.757,62.5058,50.431,34.051,33.5812,54.7355,17.5641,0.0,62.3364,-35.5101,0.0,0.0,-49.3873,-21.2699,-21.1932,0.0,-8.158,-72.7035,-73.5043,0.0,-36.6564,-18.8519,54.2356,18.3535,-47.1141,-41.0139,-35.2422,-24.2901,-42.4972,-82.0669,-24.511,-32.3971,-86.0519,-73.8759,0.0,12.2405,52.7161,0.0,-34.9222,71.0368,57.1413,55.3222,75.8988,-39.5632,0.0,-36.0621,-35.9236,-36.4001,0.0,0.0,-64.3609,-66.4543,-33.6328,-68.9621],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[57.3122,29.8133,28.8086,45.4716,32.9194,0.0,71.4528,-40.3963,0.0,0.0,-53.4144,-18.4503,-17.3026,0.0,-11.0552,-62.5658,-70.3825,0.0,-29.8057,-28.8005,48.9758,13.4766,-55.8719,-39.5917,-29.0363,-12.8399,-49.0291,-81.4529,-32.7251,-27.7755,-89.4021,-73.8494,0.0,22.5466,46.6429,0.0,-54.5288,61.8268,64.6079,52.2559,73.1807,-44.2225,0.0,-36.5359,-34.8859,-37.4114,0.0,0.0,-65.2085,-64.4697,-32.0006,-67.3718],"force":[28.5137,6.977,7.3212,65.7145,36.1759,0.0,55.0155,-60.3007,0.0,0.0,-55.6308,-7.0197,-7.3634,0.0,-1.9973,-91.3959,-76.9909,0.0,-10.3642,-7.9352,97.9753,9.995,-78.5566,-56.5378,-21.7025,-7.6723,-30.1456,-99.8463,-31.7903,-9.4185,-99.7847,-72.6832,0.0,71.0207,90.3143,0.0,-45.0661,99.6265,34.5053,37.8098,81.9801,-40.0119,0.0,-29.9087,-22.0754,-19.392,0.0,0.0,-90.2294,-87.0921,-6.1544,-84.5335],"direction":[58.2219,58.2326,57.7926,57.4805,38.4009,0.0,57.1469,-12.2183,0.0,0.0,-40.3253,-34.6709,-35.5179,0.0,-12.1006,-70.9376,-74.5816,0.0,-63.2659,-26.6158,29.0042,29.8976,-14.6462,-31.5509,-52.0059,-49.2458,-43.8547,-70.0691,-55.3385,-54.0923,-72.4141,-74.7581,0.0,41.5239,32.8012,0.0,-5.269,61.1413,64.7766,71.3353,74.6613,-33.9179,0.0,-39.9158,-47.001,-47.3931,0.0,0.0,-44.9147,-53.9812,-55.1256,-59.6571],"intensity":[5.7692,36.5385,3.8462,63.4615,59.6154,13.4615,42.3077,69.2308,71.1538,5.7692,25.0,25.0,7.6923,13.4615,15.3846,100.0,94.2308,65.3846,57.6923,9.6154,76.9231,76.9231,42.3077,48.0769,23.0769,34.6154,30.7692,96.1538,76.9231,40.3846,98.0769,94.2308,69.2308,82.6923,63.4615,40.3846,46.1538,98.0769,98.0769,82.6923,40.3846,100.0,40.3846,48.0769,23.0769,21.1538,71.1538,11.5385,84.6154,46.1538,46.1538,32.6923],"confirmation":[83.3651,55.4691,55.3517,85.9911,34.1329,6.8693,87.5856,80.0443,24.5829,1.513,83.9328,51.7484,51.753,28.6284,48.0163,91.9893,91.6752,39.7357,79.0331,52.0908,86.7686,73.6927,83.9013,81.6192,78.9594,52.7742,81.1231,94.8126,35.4511,77.7372,95.9041,91.6043,38.9738,37.0764,86.1076,29.8416,56.5188,91.7434,85.4816,85.2161,92.5144,80.6029,25.9205,79.3451,79.0893,79.1143,27.7527,0.97,89.3709,89.9246,55.2833,98.5667],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[18.8963,26.8616,28.6112,14.2552,1.6393,13.9461,14.9992,29.5995,36.9135,27.7985,25.1962,27.9341,29.5671,34.922,14.5646,13.4319,13.1943,51.0591,30.5158,42.012,22.4118,35.1167,43.5171,21.7552,26.9037,32.798,4.9059,7.9853,30.437,26.0864,6.8882,10.599,47.8091,41.9876,22.7855,52.6791,50.2142,12.3475,15.6528,21.3331,11.9893,20.6028,34.2019,30.8023,31.7445,10.8487,19.2938,10.809,12.3281,4.3475,29.2568,14.0036],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-69.0,"control":-67.4,"force":-84.5,"direction":-59.7,"confirmation":98.6,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":14.0,"intensity":32.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-69.0","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-67.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-84.5","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-59.7","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"99/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"38.9","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.9%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"22.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"9%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend 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