{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ELV Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7b49ee75-fc20-4f3d-a16d-976e5934478a","symbol":"ELV","name":"Elevance Health, Inc.","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Healthcare Plans"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":6.4,"averageExpectedMove":7.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":55.6,"averageReturn":0.8,"medianReturn":0.9,"confidenceLow":33.7,"confidenceHigh":75.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":3.1,"medianReturn":2.8,"confidenceLow":50.5,"confidenceHigh":89.8,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":62.5,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":11.2,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":81.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":22.4,"averageExpectedMove":22.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-1.2,"medianReturn":-1.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-22.4,"medianReturn":-22.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-24.6,"medianReturn":-24.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-19.3,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-19.0,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-22.4,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-20.7,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-20.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-25.7,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-24.2,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-26.8,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-26.9,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-26.1,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-22.1,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-22.5,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-21.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-22.2,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-23.3,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-24.6,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.0% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 80.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.9% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-10-03","price":297.293396},{"date":"2026-05-08","price":316.892151}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-20","price":466.722839}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":472.502808}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[472.5028,481.9489,474.4306,481.1326,466.7228,457.1485,437.9999,444.963,381.4245,384.616,368.7555,382.585,366.7246,374.5581,374.9449,351.1732,357.9714,345.7347,345.5405,349.1338,368.0715,366.1292,368.4599,372.3446,367.683,362.5358,356.3204,366.2263,357.3886,377.5954,387.3524,390.8649,390.4746,372.7169,365.3991,358.3741,350.471,349.0074,349.4953,329.7861,331.8351,333.2987,328.1113,318.2071,315.3633,288.4947,284.8665,239.1702,243.4848,236.5225,241.8178,255.7424,265.4504,264.8621,261.8222,264.6227,265.7084,268.3734,297.2934,307.8546,296.3064,291.8647,271.6306,266.9916,276.2697,274.7891,288.7062,281.9158,305.053,291.8459,289.8599,301.3788,318.6572,322.53,312.9971,287.4767,278.6389,287.6753,287.3774,268.0137,244.38,254.5,253.4,248.3,261.1,269.3185,270.7119,292.6077,317.5888,316.8922,339.6837,338.4894,332.7168,356.7027,344.4,338.4,344.2,365.2,368.0,321.4,331.5,329.0,340.3,345.6],"consensus":[0.0,47.8939,-13.3817,35.6994,-39.7792,-46.9,-65.9513,0.0,-79.7726,-27.6124,-67.9017,-18.7549,-70.9032,-11.6181,-17.1559,-68.8592,-23.8623,-48.8165,-33.8667,-17.4616,21.145,0.0,0.0,10.2473,-14.7136,-19.8425,-29.7918,20.6793,-31.5519,41.6304,45.6062,43.927,29.8037,-14.4989,-26.9756,-18.6511,-44.6691,-35.3032,-17.8917,-63.9022,-17.3096,-10.6495,-33.2301,-48.9062,-37.1694,-65.8622,-54.4234,-74.469,-28.9121,-60.3895,-16.954,0.0,9.5194,0.0,-14.6306,0.0,0.0,0.0,58.3373,64.0948,17.3094,8.8672,-50.0856,-39.3307,0.0,-17.2665,44.9193,0.0,67.4454,0.0,17.3199,55.5742,63.9454,51.5738,15.2357,-35.5632,-51.1292,0.0,-31.0039,-62.4497,-64.1425,-11.4213,-39.3982,-46.4834,16.8374,0.0,21.2377,52.4648,66.5189,44.6596,71.2972,39.5531,21.5366,77.2166,17.1548,13.5221,55.7022,64.3571,43.582,-54.0453,0.0,-23.1391,24.3544,-36.6269],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[12.3548,0.0,-28.9176,0.0,0.0,0.0,61.8729,62.5453,4.3595,5.5556,-48.7067,-39.3257,0.0,-12.6356,40.3,0.0,63.696,0.0,20.4188,55.4249,65.0234,47.4345,2.9444,-31.4827,-52.1345,0.0,-28.1483,-63.9924,-75.8043,-8.0952,-38.8962,-52.3206,21.9259,0.0,22.2146,56.7514,77.9713,44.7365,83.8605,31.3795,11.2427,80.5396,12.0521,11.8935,60.2304,72.9355,36.4205,-50.4532,0.0,-14.1179,42.0158,-32.6981],"force":[33.7768,0.0,-2.6057,0.0,0.0,0.0,54.7889,66.7978,11.1714,13.813,-84.9339,-46.4764,0.0,-25.7004,64.8399,0.0,89.9897,0.0,13.6233,67.4013,73.9399,43.369,15.1037,-59.736,-63.8883,0.0,-41.3072,-82.2966,-50.3598,-19.3365,-17.8678,-25.9524,41.6271,0.0,27.6004,48.4588,52.7675,17.2064,51.7621,9.9657,17.3133,79.2078,23.1496,20.9632,50.4566,59.3238,22.452,-94.3554,0.0,-35.0726,38.6009,-44.6585],"direction":[11.0478,0.0,-6.8918,0.0,0.0,0.0,56.8311,63.935,52.4526,41.5504,-26.7698,-34.2325,0.0,-16.5347,35.9695,0.0,55.6273,0.0,16.4187,47.2967,55.5745,62.1651,50.9538,-22.9603,-40.8665,0.0,-26.908,-46.5103,-60.6594,-55.6957,-55.3508,-54.4774,6.6849,0.0,15.5765,50.4272,63.2527,64.1812,70.8929,70.0283,61.0509,71.9966,51.7752,40.0157,54.274,58.1483,66.8595,-29.3575,0.0,-24.9251,6.0061,-35.3801],"intensity":[65.3846,3.8462,26.9231,19.2308,1.9231,50.0,90.3846,86.5385,51.9231,61.5385,82.6923,78.8462,38.4615,51.9231,65.3846,25.0,84.6154,63.4615,67.3077,51.9231,82.6923,61.5385,36.5385,100.0,82.6923,40.3846,67.3077,67.3077,80.7692,57.6923,40.3846,9.6154,46.1538,63.4615,15.3846,84.6154,78.8462,71.1538,76.9231,48.0769,21.1538,78.8462,40.3846,19.2308,7.6923,82.6923,5.7692,96.1538,96.1538,9.6154,36.5385,25.0],"confirmation":[28.7658,25.6227,26.7643,25.1817,3.2497,23.7274,86.5059,88.6163,7.2516,6.498,85.1104,80.8037,28.8023,73.8529,83.0517,28.8583,90.3267,32.0435,73.3825,86.1465,88.7507,84.3167,7.3602,80.1791,84.7349,29.8293,78.2788,88.5653,87.9278,31.5336,79.9589,82.16,52.8254,24.6463,74.9751,84.6013,88.6924,81.4532,90.0283,79.8798,32.2247,92.7194,31.9442,30.4397,85.5958,88.3101,81.4114,86.5777,24.488,75.9057,54.5731,44.64],"persistence":[62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[39.9187,46.7059,50.7357,26.1503,0.3793,9.9356,19.6487,17.4767,41.1561,44.6452,23.7613,30.239,50.7971,36.8074,22.3541,44.1143,15.0017,44.0318,4.5411,18.4682,7.7587,23.6043,40.0931,21.5187,24.1931,50.6303,32.4367,13.2313,16.9314,43.5635,29.7163,21.9159,34.0263,39.6741,33.633,23.5881,16.7121,27.5833,14.3443,30.0479,30.0855,11.3108,9.4714,7.1107,8.6875,3.14,25.7124,8.2399,28.1475,36.7873,57.8466,26.2901],"volumeParticipation":false,"latest":{"consensus":-36.6,"control":-32.7,"force":-44.7,"direction":-35.4,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":26.3,"intensity":25.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-36.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-32.7","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-44.7","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-35.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"57.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.2%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"18.7","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"76%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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