{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"WARN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7b9a9ea5-e1ce-4b94-844b-78faf0ebd738","symbol":"WARN","name":"Warteck Invest AG","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CHF","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Real Estate Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","headline":"Market Dynamics is weaker than the current price position","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","take":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":1.1,"averageExpectedMove":2.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-0.5,"medianReturn":-0.5,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":31.2,"averageReturn":-0.5,"medianReturn":-1.0,"confidenceLow":14.2,"confidenceHigh":55.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":28.6,"averageReturn":-1.4,"medianReturn":-4.4,"confidenceLow":11.7,"confidenceHigh":54.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-2.0,"medianReturn":-2.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":1},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":41.7,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":24},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 41.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.5% across 24 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 2.6% across 24 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-08-30","price":1593.552612},{"date":"2024-09-27","price":1602.871582}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":1948.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":1960.0}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1584.2335,1593.5526,1579.5741,1579.5741,1579.5741,1602.8716,1630.8287,1621.5098,1612.1907,1602.8716,1616.8502,1630.8287,1621.5098,1635.4883,1658.7858,1751.976,1751.976,1775.2736,1784.5925,1784.5925,1784.5925,1793.9115,1756.6355,1789.2521,1784.5925,1803.2306,1807.8901,1812.5496,1793.9115,1789.2521,1803.2306,1803.2306,1807.8901,1779.933,1775.2736,1789.2521,1789.2521,1849.8258,1901.0803,1957.6436,1928.7129,1928.7129,1928.7129,1923.8911,1938.3564,1938.3564,1928.7129,1948.0,1928.7129,1914.2476,1928.7129,1938.3564,1914.2476,1899.7821,1919.0693,1919.0693,1875.6732,1861.2079,1866.0297,1851.5643,1885.3168,1880.495,1870.8514,1875.6732,1875.6732,1870.8514,1890.1385,1841.9208,1861.2079,1861.2079,1870.8514,1880.495,1894.9603,1894.9603,1899.7821,1894.9603,1909.4257,1919.0693,1899.7821,2005.8613,1996.2178,1948.0,1957.6436,1957.6436,1986.5742,1986.5742,1986.5742,1996.2178,1976.9307,1948.0,1948.0,1950.0,1945.0,1955.0,1950.0,1945.0,1955.0,1955.0,1945.0,1960.0,1955.0,1955.0,1920.0,1920.0],"consensus":[13.3361,28.4612,0.0,0.0,0.0,44.4922,59.0921,19.7564,13.1221,0.0,27.7077,32.2261,0.0,32.7062,55.6908,72.7215,49.7143,64.1962,50.1357,44.9834,46.9763,48.3788,-16.7402,50.8711,26.3327,43.0738,35.5609,41.1934,0.0,0.0,24.109,0.0,23.8301,-27.5789,-23.4664,13.1001,-14.1202,63.8844,75.1473,67.8969,20.5823,32.91,23.7659,8.0489,39.2095,17.8054,9.3186,41.4497,-8.341,-17.2032,22.6207,20.4942,-24.3245,-27.5856,18.1264,0.0,-57.5668,-39.5687,-14.7513,-40.8152,19.6138,0.0,-14.0095,0.0,0.0,0.0,27.8645,-50.5333,8.6666,0.0,0.0,15.4966,32.4135,26.9188,24.7424,0.0,32.5485,28.518,0.0,72.5152,30.2116,-14.0967,31.6371,0.0,43.9098,35.7144,22.7933,35.9792,0.0,-34.6178,0.0,-9.2265,0.0,0.0,-8.3927,-14.7129,0.0,0.0,-22.2354,20.6875,0.0,0.0,-44.657,-24.8741],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-25.076,-26.8838,28.5256,0.0,-52.1507,-32.3169,-3.3264,-29.358,23.4526,0.0,-12.9118,0.0,0.0,0.0,31.6389,-43.711,14.9618,0.0,0.0,12.4915,35.8261,29.4699,25.0261,0.0,38.2466,27.9636,0.0,64.3326,26.0915,-19.9968,26.685,0.0,46.139,40.6637,21.1229,36.815,0.0,-24.7429,0.0,-2.3729,0.0,0.0,-12.0209,-18.4244,0.0,0.0,-30.0362,21.5594,0.0,0.0,-38.8276,-20.7159],"force":[-42.1083,-37.1387,34.52,0.0,-85.6482,-40.3079,-8.6769,-47.1808,49.5135,0.0,-15.2773,0.0,0.0,0.0,46.0871,-77.8855,38.1088,0.0,0.0,17.0888,34.7277,23.4823,20.2472,0.0,31.1729,19.2905,0.0,99.1684,5.099,-66.9554,30.6634,0.0,67.7046,23.4002,10.3794,31.7745,0.0,-69.9078,0.0,-3.5202,0.0,0.0,-7.0909,-13.4731,0.0,0.0,-24.8696,34.3799,0.0,0.0,-66.4016,-11.5713],"direction":[-10.763,-21.5639,5.4682,0.0,-43.6984,-47.3286,-44.5427,-49.3622,6.1302,0.0,-14.3585,0.0,0.0,0.0,10.5348,-38.7931,19.5581,0.0,0.0,17.7937,26.8605,26.4579,27.6291,0.0,27.019,35.7427,0.0,62.8289,60.1422,-30.4025,37.9922,0.0,24.3659,38.8539,33.5693,38.0273,0.0,-20.6963,0.0,-21.1353,0.0,0.0,-5.1761,-11.3567,0.0,0.0,-11.4386,9.9106,0.0,0.0,-35.7872,-39.1283],"intensity":[61.5385,63.4615,48.0769,21.1538,90.3846,88.4615,11.5385,32.6923,75.0,28.8462,17.3077,19.2308,21.1538,19.2308,48.0769,92.3077,50.0,25.0,53.8462,17.3077,38.4615,1.9231,15.3846,11.5385,44.2308,50.0,69.2308,100.0,98.0769,88.4615,80.7692,59.6154,90.3846,42.3077,42.3077,9.6154,44.2308,82.6923,73.0769,65.3846,80.7692,90.3846,73.0769,7.6923,36.5385,65.3846,38.4615,40.3846,26.9231,9.6154,90.3846,75.0],"confirmation":[76.3144,77.1292,52.6415,26.5348,87.3597,80.795,6.0316,81.4294,53.7703,1.3177,72.5384,25.7031,24.4609,25.1322,77.4145,85.1082,30.4137,24.8409,26.0863,73.0532,78.3909,76.4704,75.7763,25.3704,78.2868,76.853,3.7511,92.1419,55.0755,35.1845,78.1697,24.8178,82.7424,78.9779,74.941,79.3725,3.1307,80.3037,25.498,25.5497,25.4568,1.1058,25.2574,72.6138,25.1841,1.0135,75.0767,75.024,0.8593,24.6485,83.0418,75.6177],"persistence":[25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[25.409,25.9753,38.1374,46.1362,19.7125,28.9034,42.347,29.5335,12.5777,37.311,19.1732,39.2822,21.45,20.8785,25.2106,20.7326,32.9168,20.2095,39.5444,40.5156,31.0822,34.8205,34.6339,32.4784,18.6062,30.3319,2.3417,13.6255,34.6386,42.247,31.2668,48.7381,35.9291,22.9984,23.4433,22.866,12.5982,22.552,37.0377,38.8418,43.4891,19.6483,11.5251,10.5807,34.5222,1.0211,10.313,32.1659,1.1131,2.6909,26.2743,37.4529],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-24.9,"control":-20.7,"force":-11.6,"direction":-39.1,"confirmation":75.6,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":37.5,"intensity":75.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-24.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-20.7","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-11.6","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-39.1","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"76/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"42.6","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.0%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"34%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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