{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"QUAD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"7bb1f163-6525-4b7e-a7e3-d3af2c6b0fc0","symbol":"QUAD","name":"Kotak Indo-Pacific Defence UCITS ETF Accumulation","exchange":"EBS","country":"CH","asset_type":"etf","currency":"CHF","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet established a clear direction.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":54,"displayedObservations":54,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":18.9,"averageExpectedMove":18.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.9,"medianReturn":-11.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-17.8,"medianReturn":-17.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-10.7,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-18.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-15.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-14.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-19.8,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-17.5,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-23.7,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-15.4,"sample":1},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is repairing while price remains rotational","use":"The repair is constructive, but price has not yet established a clear response.","confirm":"Treat the repair as constructive context until price confirms it.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 9.6% across 2 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 2.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":7.755}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-04-24","price":7.482}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[6.017,6.009,5.971,6.07,6.371,6.401,6.372,6.623,6.5,5.963,7.9727,6.502,5.839,5.811,5.363,5.466,5.466,5.627,5.567,5.75,5.753,6.793,6.953,6.811,6.804,6.484,6.873,7.287,7.049,7.504,7.45,6.653,6.72,6.942,7.529,7.755,7.482,7.411,7.195,6.835,6.922,6.831,6.332,6.556,6.836,6.287,6.614,6.371,6.219,6.401,5.918,6.596,6.883,6.564],"consensus":[-100.0,79.5014,11.6279,17.7143,25.1819,24.1733,0.0,29.7442,0.0,-42.5989,67.6518,-32.2579,-53.3317,-21.9775,-54.4273,-13.6403,-8.2807,0.0,0.0,19.3162,-12.2136,69.0304,43.0808,8.4611,27.6822,-20.7185,50.2655,61.3174,9.1249,66.7768,23.952,-43.1631,0.0,17.9264,44.1554,57.7628,0.0,23.1828,-20.087,-46.0763,0.0,-37.3238,-47.918,-16.6245,0.0,-48.6327,0.0,-32.8789,-38.2248,10.5407,-60.4149,44.3206,47.7458,-29.6767],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,null,30.365,0.0,21.8658,0.0,-42.1272,66.8361,-33.7127,-47.0586,-25.237,-56.5285,-4.3007,-2.9831,0.0,0.0,20.4863,-26.5047,69.3581,35.7993,3.8088,21.3816,-13.3129,58.5407,59.5476,9.5329,63.0597,15.1974,-46.3573,0.0,32.144,54.2267,63.1448,0.0,22.6503,-21.5662,-50.2453,0.0,-39.932,-47.6083,-10.8158,0.0,-46.7568,0.0,-34.492,-34.7676,17.21,-67.3855,43.7278,55.4201,-33.3165],"force":[11.6279,17.7143,19.7398,16.732,0.0,36.5915,0.0,-66.4483,64.4987,-72.3565,-82.8223,-9.9335,-42.7661,-10.5587,-8.6588,0.0,0.0,45.7027,-7.6743,95.0095,39.2899,30.3028,8.2941,-66.3812,71.119,77.4749,31.8133,85.0907,1.5674,-66.6117,0.0,29.8346,42.4096,53.5484,0.0,8.1298,-34.7347,-50.108,0.0,-33.5576,-34.7998,-8.7204,0.0,-43.7112,0.0,-20.8638,-21.0316,40.3485,-49.4167,91.6564,47.4765,-73.1585],"direction":[null,null,29.0692,22.4123,0.0,33.8572,0.0,-26.1027,70.8361,-1.9533,-39.4362,-26.8551,-60.3553,-51.4295,-33.2532,0.0,0.0,0.8686,-0.8768,50.0993,54.1103,50.1723,48.7316,-3.4342,25.9129,51.7989,37.9002,57.9436,52.1853,-22.7636,0.0,6.8282,33.8924,54.6224,0.0,34.5434,-7.9338,-38.432,0.0,-37.0331,-57.642,-41.3664,0.0,-54.2921,0.0,-39.6176,-54.4567,18.3727,-60.3044,11.1869,39.1676,-5.5416],"intensity":[null,null,75.0,40.0,16.6667,71.4286,50.0,88.8889,100.0,90.9091,75.0,76.9231,57.1429,53.3333,12.5,41.1765,11.1111,31.5789,20.0,85.7143,81.8182,26.087,25.0,60.0,65.3846,70.3704,39.2857,68.9655,60.0,87.0968,62.5,33.3333,88.2353,34.2857,47.2222,24.3243,31.5789,66.6667,50.0,12.1951,80.9524,34.8837,52.2727,77.7778,56.5217,42.5532,16.6667,24.4898,74.0,82.3529,78.8462,53.8462],"confirmation":[26.3876,28.3352,53.1428,75.4143,25.2136,77.8469,28.2887,82.3657,89.5649,56.8557,86.0605,74.6161,85.0293,7.0708,4.7888,5.2919,48.078,52.4861,26.406,90.8765,81.7813,8.9903,76.3634,54.2004,84.5944,88.1409,31.1196,89.9834,52.688,82.4781,25.6314,52.6727,81.9231,86.2737,30.6522,74.9678,52.185,82.8038,29.1021,79.7891,82.9387,29.1629,26.8515,83.4411,26.5039,78.1305,79.7606,30.766,86.8914,83.6343,83.1535,57.2818],"persistence":[33.3333,50.0,60.0,66.6667,57.1429,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,36.9269,37.7593,46.654,35.1106,39.3726,26.5841,15.4939,8.4104,8.116,0.8538,22.6929,37.2528,18.8984,10.0553,17.2325,8.4864,24.5311,10.3774,25.654,43.7335,35.7885,25.8881,36.4483,14.4318,26.476,16.3355,34.4283,23.4585,31.9537,52.1537,11.4141,20.8743,45.424,30.8349,25.9509,26.2757,45.3739,27.935,25.4209,24.7991,15.8288,22.2544,31.8447,12.0255,29.8369,14.124,18.8638,5.3966,23.6688,35.5583],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-29.7,"control":-33.3,"force":-73.2,"direction":-5.5,"confirmation":57.3,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":35.6,"intensity":53.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-29.7","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-33.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-73.2","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-5.5","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"57/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"49.2","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.0%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"37%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[6.017,6.009,5.971,6.07,6.371,6.401,6.372,6.623,6.5,5.963,7.9727,6.502,5.839,5.811,5.363,5.466,5.466,5.627,5.567,5.75,5.753,6.793,6.953,6.811,6.804,6.484,6.873,7.287,7.049,7.504,7.45,6.653,6.72,6.942,7.529,7.755,7.482,7.411,7.195,6.835,6.922,6.831,6.332,6.556,6.836,6.287,6.614,6.371,6.219,6.401,5.918,6.596,6.883,6.564],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,6.0829,6.1407,6.1828,6.2628,6.3059,6.2436,6.558,6.5478,6.4189,6.3084,6.1365,6.0146,5.9148,5.8625,5.8088,5.7981,5.7899,5.9723,6.1506,6.2707,6.3676,6.3888,6.4768,6.6241,6.7014,6.8473,6.9569,6.9016,6.8686,6.882,6.9996,7.1369,7.1997,7.2381,7.2303,7.1584,7.1154,7.0637,6.9307,6.8625,6.8577,6.754,6.7285,6.6635,6.5827,6.5497,6.4348,6.4641,6.5403,6.5446],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}