{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"H18 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7bf31e3b-7a1a-4c65-be25-55cda3894bb9","symbol":"H18","name":"Hotel Grand Central Limited","exchange":"SES","country":"SG","asset_type":"equity","currency":"SGD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Lodging"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":18,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":1.3,"averageExpectedMove":2.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":38.9,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":20.3,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":18,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":38.9,"averageReturn":0.0,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":20.3,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-2.1,"medianReturn":-1.4,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":18},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":18},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":18},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":18},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":18},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":18},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is weak, but a negative price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":66.7,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":27},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 66.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -1.4% across 27 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.7% across 27 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-30","price":0.686538},{"date":"2026-04-10","price":0.715962}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[0.6911,0.7055,0.6959,0.6815,0.6911,0.7007,0.6959,0.6959,0.6911,0.6863,0.6959,0.6815,0.6719,0.6719,0.6719,0.6815,0.6815,0.6911,0.6911,0.6863,0.6863,0.6911,0.6767,0.6863,0.6863,0.6863,0.6911,0.6911,0.6767,0.6815,0.6815,0.6815,0.6863,0.6527,0.6623,0.6671,0.6623,0.6863,0.6767,0.6865,0.6865,0.6816,0.6767,0.6767,0.6718,0.6914,0.6963,0.7062,0.7062,0.7062,0.716,0.7062,0.7062,0.7111,0.7111,0.7062,0.7062,0.6963,0.7013,0.6914,0.6914,0.6914,0.6865,0.6767,0.6963,0.6914,0.6767,0.6963,0.6963,0.6865,0.6865,0.6865,0.6914,0.6914,0.6963,0.716,0.7258,0.7062,0.6914,0.6865,0.6571,0.6669,0.6718,0.6963,0.716,0.716,0.7356,0.765,0.7552,0.765,0.745,0.73,0.725,0.725,0.74,0.715,0.72,0.73,0.715,0.725,0.735,0.715,0.715,0.72],"consensus":[-19.597,12.8897,-23.8062,-49.7607,0.0,0.0,-12.3856,0.0,-19.4395,-23.4113,19.3879,-34.7589,-41.1937,-23.7384,-24.2512,0.0,0.0,34.737,14.7027,-13.6397,0.0,23.0134,-38.1135,19.7754,0.0,0.0,28.7565,19.1911,-34.8784,0.0,0.0,0.0,26.2839,-58.0861,0.0,0.0,-39.0894,51.7443,-11.1802,32.4568,29.1146,0.0,-14.9709,0.0,-26.8792,51.7511,42.2712,53.0239,26.0167,18.9934,52.5445,0.0,11.557,22.8866,12.8569,0.0,18.0135,-39.7755,14.013,-40.5118,0.0,0.0,-33.7513,-56.6065,34.416,-11.1644,-48.7856,39.5444,0.0,-22.8044,0.0,-8.6267,16.4756,0.0,34.6165,50.8334,35.6562,-16.1648,-40.8987,-39.7315,-71.2988,-8.4946,-9.9903,44.9508,54.4923,24.8579,56.5821,70.6292,26.7929,49.863,-9.239,-24.0898,-19.9867,-12.4102,30.5439,-36.0072,0.0,12.2731,-40.8999,17.5185,32.4796,-26.8698,-8.9279,-2.1703],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[12.7289,22.9704,18.2907,0.0,27.676,-31.7086,23.1302,-31.6409,0.0,0.0,-28.4878,-55.2384,37.3204,-13.4993,-56.448,38.5585,0.0,-24.5728,0.0,-3.2189,28.5916,0.0,34.1091,38.3751,28.0711,-21.3732,-44.2615,-38.5074,-68.8392,-2.7626,-5.2653,42.2529,49.5017,16.9662,52.7866,66.3037,22.2499,38.8929,-14.8864,-24.545,-18.7857,-6.2885,44.1579,-40.9094,0.0,14.307,-46.5277,20.2372,35.0377,-24.8735,-9.4604,-6.248],"force":[0.0,16.7155,1.2656,0.0,15.3129,-77.0033,34.2378,-67.9599,0.0,0.0,-39.8622,-74.0199,68.0368,-12.7927,-49.4565,64.6138,0.0,-28.1653,0.0,-1.5427,27.0291,0.0,54.4419,73.0559,21.9486,-65.3819,-71.2928,-48.953,-94.8457,-30.6507,-21.1643,85.9325,71.7072,6.2814,62.0406,86.3483,10.8137,51.1467,-61.1444,-44.91,-28.1913,-13.3813,34.711,-42.6846,0.0,14.6386,-43.529,28.8144,42.4057,-29.6635,-0.0,-14.238],"direction":[18.4727,27.1986,14.9262,0.0,8.8996,-22.4036,10.8529,-31.0441,0.0,0.0,-35.4018,-45.7319,7.0819,-7.3327,-39.5494,22.7645,0.0,-16.9541,0.0,-19.8672,4.9094,0.0,21.0355,49.1981,54.1162,-24.9426,-15.3454,-34.5438,-57.2906,-49.321,-37.6436,18.7615,47.8995,47.1458,57.021,64.3446,58.8467,61.4835,-34.2903,-8.698,-15.4989,-18.7129,12.0086,-25.6351,0.0,8.2589,-32.5903,6.3429,22.466,-27.1558,-14.6965,-11.1098],"intensity":[63.4615,65.3846,30.7692,38.4615,73.0769,86.5385,90.3846,73.0769,73.0769,7.6923,38.4615,65.3846,92.3077,63.4615,82.6923,92.3077,34.6154,71.1538,36.5385,36.5385,38.4615,38.4615,40.3846,100.0,59.6154,92.3077,96.1538,36.5385,96.1538,88.4615,73.0769,94.2308,98.0769,88.4615,88.4615,98.0769,69.2308,73.0769,88.4615,86.5385,55.7692,65.3846,65.3846,92.3077,86.5385,63.4615,63.4615,50.0,50.0,86.5385,23.0769,25.0],"confirmation":[48.6615,75.1344,49.0115,3.1843,73.5348,81.9857,29.9436,81.9355,4.6718,3.4765,79.0669,86.6656,57.3268,48.92,83.5151,81.4333,25.0227,75.4338,23.9821,25.2937,51.7899,24.9729,79.6892,85.1338,79.1078,34.5811,81.9626,81.0138,91.5707,8.825,6.8345,83.6743,86.0382,52.842,86.3305,91.1463,32.4704,84.1625,34.4343,76.3363,74.6641,49.4275,77.6936,79.6511,28.0902,71.9685,81.0823,51.2421,78.657,76.7139,47.9101,3.3702],"persistence":[87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[5.7785,17.0321,35.5754,0.8952,9.0068,27.8404,53.2738,28.6653,46.2066,32.4639,32.4507,21.3176,11.0536,5.5822,17.0074,28.1317,3.8298,10.5217,36.7751,33.309,31.3447,19.6187,20.5873,24.1142,32.0218,51.3559,0.8731,29.6168,14.349,45.5305,40.5661,6.9805,22.7073,37.4047,21.674,14.6469,35.5236,24.7168,29.319,36.1846,36.9704,43.3489,31.3678,17.2931,18.921,9.6225,25.4079,20.1035,24.8148,26.5713,4.464,20.1008],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-2.2,"control":-6.2,"force":-14.2,"direction":-11.1,"confirmation":3.4,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":20.1,"intensity":25.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-2.2","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-6.2","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-14.2","detail":"Downward 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