{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ECMB Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7e74f0e3-28b5-4b11-8dae-033e6455c627","symbol":"ECMB","name":"Ecomembrane S.p.A.","exchange":"MIL","country":"IT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Packaging & Containers"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Directional strength and control, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":173,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":9,"completedEpisodes":8,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":2.1,"averageExpectedMove":11.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":9,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":22.2,"averageReturn":-1.0,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":6.3,"confidenceHigh":54.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":8,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":25.0,"averageReturn":-3.5,"medianReturn":-8.2,"confidenceLow":7.1,"confidenceHigh":59.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":7,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":28.6,"averageReturn":-3.0,"medianReturn":-15.2,"confidenceLow":8.2,"confidenceHigh":64.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":9},{"week":2,"averageReturn":6.5,"sample":9},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":9},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":9},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":9},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":9},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":8},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":8},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":8},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":8},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":8},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":8},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":8},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":8},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":8},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":8},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":8},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":8},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":8},{"week":20,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":8},{"week":21,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":8},{"week":22,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":8},{"week":23,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":8},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":7},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":7},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":7}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":66.7,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":9},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 66.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -2.2% across 9 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 80.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 11.1% across 9 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-23","price":4.299139}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[5.4966,5.3985,5.3985,5.3003,5.2512,5.2512,4.8684,4.9568,5.1531,5.0058,4.9568,4.8292,4.8292,4.5347,4.2991,4.4562,4.3973,4.4366,4.4366,4.6918,4.5151,4.6721,4.7899,4.7114,4.4169,4.3973,4.4366,4.3777,4.3973,4.3384,4.201,3.9262,3.5335,3.4746,3.828,4.0832,4.1225,4.0243,4.2599,4.2991,4.5151,4.6132,4.6132,4.6525,4.7506,4.9568,4.8881,5.104,4.9568,5.1531,5.0549,5.1531,5.2022,5.0549,5.1531,4.9568,4.8488,4.7506,4.2795,4.0832,4.0243,4.0636,3.8673,3.6513,3.7298,3.5924,3.6317,3.7691,3.6906,3.7102,3.7102,3.828,3.7495,3.5924,3.6121,3.5728,5.3985,4.2402,4.201,4.3384,3.985,4.201,4.7703,4.5151,4.5151,4.7114,4.8881,5.1531,5.0549,5.104,5.2,5.3,5.2,6.2,5.85,6.2,5.5,5.35,5.5,5.3,5.4,5.3,5.5,5.55],"consensus":[9.5639,-19.3875,0.0,-30.218,-32.8351,-26.1536,-70.6599,-19.7758,13.8127,-49.0789,-26.2725,-51.9741,-29.4599,-68.572,-77.7362,0.0,-52.7067,-18.334,-25.6388,34.5439,-37.9695,36.5744,44.4552,9.6558,-51.7062,-26.1573,-14.2374,-44.9946,-13.1901,-29.0861,-51.4632,-70.5499,-77.0992,-34.7081,0.0,32.5046,12.1259,-12.7548,56.7713,17.3549,39.3627,56.8835,35.9759,47.3969,51.634,69.9623,15.5495,69.2573,9.0008,62.3387,24.239,50.0971,37.4511,0.0,44.3186,-29.5958,-41.1156,-45.8309,-74.8805,-75.3227,-60.7555,-25.0493,-81.35,-76.4295,-41.759,-67.9134,-38.2388,0.0,-55.0731,-15.651,-19.7391,17.7877,-23.6911,-59.8933,-18.9785,-30.0807,75.0249,-17.7572,10.2285,34.5603,-42.1846,35.095,53.3869,0.0,29.5759,45.0608,34.8692,48.3978,15.516,24.9915,20.0468,39.61,15.9213,41.3405,11.5302,43.4968,0.0,-16.8776,0.0,-31.6272,8.24,0.0,21.0918,-13.5583],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[30.9045,0.0,55.1548,-34.564,-42.7783,-52.4944,-72.7826,-73.6759,-66.0902,-6.1781,-82.1092,-78.02,-40.0827,-73.9003,-38.014,0.0,-64.9398,-24.8487,-27.3485,22.4648,-20.7772,-56.6744,-17.954,-23.9669,62.247,-32.1406,0.6283,19.6774,-33.0524,35.6992,40.3062,0.0,28.3787,45.8185,34.0436,34.251,5.6272,18.7188,12.5419,49.3695,15.2302,26.9491,5.162,25.6838,0.0,-12.8408,0.0,-30.0181,15.683,0.0,23.9389,-10.2028],"force":[21.1709,0.0,33.8596,-50.054,-53.2664,-40.4283,-92.4957,-85.4718,-35.8507,-10.2708,-90.4289,-73.5325,-1.889,-48.0792,-4.4678,0.0,-47.8924,-17.0321,-4.4526,51.0121,-36.8493,-86.4855,-5.3661,-17.4196,97.1409,-78.8341,9.8671,44.3917,-82.9541,68.1477,76.9868,0.0,20.8734,44.4356,31.7844,62.725,13.4331,8.2989,1.3074,26.3597,4.2279,34.6906,20.3121,50.7781,0.0,-24.7445,0.0,-46.1192,12.0005,0.0,37.5001,-13.5567],"direction":[56.5617,0.0,39.405,-9.3048,-30.5363,-42.0745,-64.6957,-69.9555,-72.4479,-71.845,-73.9973,-76.681,-72.1532,-75.2386,-69.0005,0.0,-48.926,-28.4845,-28.3225,11.2894,-17.6225,-44.5777,-37.5384,-46.1117,73.831,-42.3072,36.9902,44.547,-23.5004,10.7955,51.4791,0.0,37.16,44.6415,38.0164,54.3318,47.4955,44.0837,42.0092,37.9209,31.1034,62.5376,53.3515,58.6536,0.0,-15.8718,0.0,-23.1147,2.9523,0.0,6.1177,-17.3943],"intensity":[73.0769,73.0769,46.1538,50.0,44.2308,23.0769,100.0,86.5385,61.5385,7.6923,44.2308,78.8462,13.4615,32.6923,23.0769,30.7692,15.3846,7.6923,15.3846,28.8462,61.5385,40.3846,53.8462,26.9231,100.0,98.0769,96.1538,71.1538,84.6154,57.6923,98.0769,92.3077,76.9231,51.9231,88.4615,90.3846,78.8462,19.2308,67.3077,73.0769,21.1538,96.1538,88.4615,84.6154,92.3077,32.6923,50.0,51.9231,28.8462,61.5385,61.5385,26.9231],"confirmation":[79.588,5.0897,81.6981,78.0184,81.502,82.3997,92.5306,92.4377,86.6015,9.418,94.2971,92.3449,57.5067,89.0366,57.2248,33.2654,85.2542,30.1723,51.7465,31.7084,76.0266,88.0253,51.8249,77.3331,92.8767,39.0167,5.0651,79.5857,82.8807,80.2285,86.0024,32.2692,77.2173,82.3889,79.0767,84.1395,7.0993,75.5841,51.2916,80.1227,50.7266,81.2456,8.4081,82.4123,3.9314,73.7021,24.8034,78.5869,48.6012,47.928,52.5394,44.64],"persistence":[100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[29.7462,33.1903,11.0368,29.7053,28.7459,25.6746,12.5544,12.3319,19.6181,37.4508,8.9273,11.4396,27.1602,15.9031,26.7692,28.8516,14.9003,39.8657,33.0118,14.2899,36.5579,8.8041,25.5042,34.2513,12.3584,48.3902,32.4794,25.402,27.9309,20.7428,9.2289,16.4542,19.34,10.7605,8.2275,14.0346,26.8114,25.2523,33.9395,8.8823,20.0135,29.2472,42.1471,27.89,30.7532,40.423,33.1783,33.2722,17.0173,2.8274,10.5459,21.9765],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-13.6,"control":-10.2,"force":-13.6,"direction":-17.4,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":22.0,"intensity":26.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-13.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-10.2","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-13.6","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-17.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"56.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.8%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"44.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"58%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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