{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"E2ST34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"7fb4fd0a-e16e-4553-a45d-d8986b282663","symbol":"E2ST34","name":"Elastic N.V.","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Technology","industry":"Software - Application"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":25.3,"averageExpectedMove":25.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.3,"medianReturn":-11.3,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-10.7,"medianReturn":-10.7,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-25.9,"medianReturn":-25.9,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-7.8,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-21.8,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-23.0,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-23.7,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-22.6,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-21.8,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-21.6,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-17.7,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-10.7,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-18.3,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-18.3,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-23.8,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-34.8,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-32.6,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-33.2,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-32.1,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-31.4,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-31.2,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-31.5,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-30.3,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-30.3,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-25.9,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":22.2,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":9},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 22.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.6% across 9 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 14.7% across 9 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":23.16}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-01-17","price":48.52},{"date":"2025-03-07","price":49.32}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-12-06","price":56.580002},{"date":"2025-02-28","price":56.400002}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[48.55,35.09,33.24,35.01,35.01,35.2,34.2,38.8,38.9,37.68,38.84,41.68,43.04,45.0,45.0,56.58,54.85,52.45,52.45,52.45,52.45,48.52,48.52,48.52,48.52,48.52,48.52,56.4,49.32,47.81,47.81,47.81,35.92,38.49,37.72,38.96,39.81,40.03,44.5,44.5,44.5,44.5,44.5,38.31,37.7,37.7,37.7,37.7,37.7,37.7,32.91,34.29,34.29,39.24,39.24,42.11,38.68,38.61,38.87,39.33,38.6,38.6,38.6,37.82,37.82,31.8,30.95,30.95,35.16,35.19,35.19,35.19,33.36,32.91,31.92,29.22,25.63,25.9,24.99,22.09,23.28,23.26,23.94,21.0,21.0,17.88,19.02,18.74,19.24,21.3,19.76,23.16,27.0,27.21,27.21,25.14,24.1,25.39,26.79,26.25,26.25,27.78,31.78,36.8],"consensus":[-52.2323,-78.9099,-79.2493,-10.2512,-43.9044,-19.8355,-54.3738,27.9042,0.0,-35.0673,19.0325,52.636,49.8193,63.4071,36.2202,79.8096,19.351,16.5793,41.143,21.8638,22.3918,-30.3215,0.0,-8.541,-9.3796,0.0,0.0,75.8941,-37.6788,-42.9814,-17.6146,-23.9172,-77.7992,-25.6626,-64.5339,-9.7053,0.0,0.0,56.5763,19.8796,19.8577,19.8234,10.2811,-72.0851,-35.7808,-38.0183,-37.6951,-30.84,-26.6995,-25.7129,-83.3903,0.0,-39.0581,48.0816,24.0619,64.9496,-14.0617,0.0,0.0,13.0843,-24.7982,0.0,0.0,-36.06,-13.1084,-76.28,-70.9695,-41.5233,13.5767,14.5159,0.0,0.0,-53.6041,-53.9947,-66.486,-73.9874,-85.7665,-42.5357,-68.3677,-84.3244,0.0,-25.5204,-14.4969,-80.0542,-40.2222,-83.792,0.0,-55.587,-11.2721,28.6551,-45.8966,55.4266,78.4241,43.2924,41.583,13.0526,-23.1243,22.8991,49.8208,0.0,31.1259,75.1015,88.2557,92.1551],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-33.8533,39.3006,18.1065,78.3175,-37.4538,0.0,0.0,18.6307,-31.128,0.0,0.0,-44.301,-12.9832,-73.0292,-71.9637,-36.0963,34.9159,14.645,0.0,0.0,-63.827,-55.929,-71.7164,-87.3606,-89.3611,-36.6996,-75.9469,-84.891,0.0,-8.1345,-0.492,-88.1751,-35.8359,-91.3397,0.0,-63.3056,-1.3153,18.9289,-69.6565,58.5807,74.269,36.5685,33.3078,1.1375,-13.1298,33.8183,68.0703,0.0,22.2952,71.5495,90.5477,94.5757],"force":[-10.1706,85.858,10.4114,48.6941,-32.5325,0.0,0.0,25.6574,-53.0043,0.0,0.0,-38.804,-4.9208,-98.8418,-73.1398,-10.4346,43.7055,23.673,0.0,0.0,-46.8741,-55.9657,-71.613,-63.7238,-97.2299,-9.0553,-47.6606,-94.1843,0.0,-7.8943,-21.6401,-92.7393,-9.2038,-85.9561,0.0,-28.8377,-40.9517,86.0677,-40.3862,66.1532,98.7911,14.0176,10.4376,17.0733,-64.3164,11.8177,32.8662,0.0,9.507,91.2211,98.5795,99.5463],"direction":[-65.6404,31.1338,40.6184,61.283,-25.8657,0.0,0.0,2.2352,-2.5831,0.0,0.0,-24.6819,-19.0998,-63.8797,-68.283,-69.9319,32.3315,7.8276,0.0,0.0,-46.728,-50.3763,-56.8462,-66.0349,-73.4702,-73.12,-74.4965,-76.634,0.0,-69.2576,-57.4392,-61.7123,-67.3911,-73.6203,0.0,-65.8724,-59.954,1.2382,-22.6784,44.1602,68.6249,71.8875,73.2871,50.7883,-5.1236,18.3353,41.0747,0.0,56.6603,67.647,78.2622,84.1094],"intensity":[44.2308,92.3077,82.6923,67.3077,69.2308,69.2308,34.6154,57.6923,53.8462,34.6154,30.7692,38.4615,40.3846,84.6154,84.6154,38.4615,78.8462,75.0,32.6923,30.7692,53.8462,36.5385,46.1538,65.3846,73.0769,59.6154,36.5385,71.1538,67.3077,21.1538,42.3077,69.2308,71.1538,71.1538,51.9231,36.5385,28.8462,53.8462,48.0769,73.0769,80.7692,84.6154,13.4615,50.0,38.4615,42.3077,44.2308,21.1538,21.1538,46.1538,86.5385,94.2308],"confirmation":[79.6975,84.6712,75.3745,88.0848,32.8909,24.5538,1.4596,50.2958,54.583,0.5819,0.4224,79.4973,49.2804,93.1467,90.7612,80.4227,34.5016,50.2555,48.3529,48.5412,84.7924,85.3089,89.3521,91.1594,95.7399,80.68,89.1311,95.2757,14.6762,54.4306,8.4876,93.8802,79.9926,94.7644,14.8762,84.855,10.9036,56.665,82.1569,86.0154,93.7797,81.0638,80.4835,7.3599,54.1408,74.8236,83.1479,33.1767,77.436,92.5779,96.5215,100.0],"persistence":[87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[26.9145,2.7781,37.2478,17.2112,54.8243,16.2882,10.4525,48.2692,10.6773,0.3958,5.2901,15.253,13.2658,11.4215,14.4637,29.1269,48.4303,39.1539,46.627,46.1324,8.111,12.9382,12.6082,12.6158,7.0011,28.5097,15.7773,7.788,38.3062,35.141,24.2128,8.901,25.3682,7.9934,46.7977,15.6204,33.483,34.2376,44.1269,21.2819,10.7422,28.0795,29.1494,30.3352,33.6446,47.9601,37.0324,25.644,26.9198,6.4997,5.3232,3.9183],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":92.2,"control":94.6,"force":99.5,"direction":84.1,"confirmation":100.0,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":3.9,"intensity":94.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+92.2","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+94.6","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+99.5","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+84.1","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"100/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"71.2","detail":"Stretched positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.0%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"22.7","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"100%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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