{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AVAP Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"8600bc07-aab3-4a2c-9576-7185c7d8cc0d","symbol":"AVAP","name":"Avation PLC","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Rental & Leasing Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":19,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":3.7,"averageExpectedMove":7.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":19,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":36.8,"averageReturn":-1.3,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":19.1,"confidenceHigh":59.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":29.4,"averageReturn":0.2,"medianReturn":-3.6,"confidenceLow":13.3,"confidenceHigh":53.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":1.5,"medianReturn":-2.6,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":19},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":19},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":19},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":18},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":18},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":18},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":18},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":18},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":29.4,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 29.4% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.2% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 10.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 7.7% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[131.4901,132.99,131.2401,136.9897,134.7399,134.9898,137.9896,146.9889,167.9873,175.4868,177.9866,163.4877,171.9871,167.9873,158.4927,158.9927,158.9927,153.493,153.493,148.9932,147.4932,144.9933,143.9934,142.9934,141.9935,140.9935,142.9934,151.993,150.9931,148.4932,148.4932,146.4933,131.9939,139.9936,143.4934,147.4932,146.9933,148.9932,149.9931,148.9932,146.9933,144.9933,159.9927,155.9928,154.9929,156.9928,162.4926,161.4926,161.4926,157.9928,158.9927,158.4927,158.4927,158.4927,159.4927,161.4926,162.9925,162.4926,163.4925,160.9926,159.5,153.5,148.0,146.0,141.0,139.0,144.0,139.5,139.0,139.0,138.5,139.5,141.0,141.5,145.0,141.5,145.5,140.0,140.0,144.0,139.0,133.0,130.0,123.5,126.75,135.0,135.0,135.5,138.5,135.0,135.0,136.75,136.5,133.5,134.0,135.5,136.5,137.0,137.0,135.0,138.5,139.5,140.0,138.0],"consensus":[14.6388,11.7688,-8.293,42.7906,0.0,0.0,42.4114,67.0846,72.1628,68.1425,48.511,0.0,57.5088,0.0,-32.2674,8.0338,0.0,-30.1437,0.0,-37.3637,-25.8027,-32.8683,-25.2228,-19.4834,-28.9719,-17.8306,0.0,42.3629,14.6728,0.0,0.0,-18.37,-63.4561,0.0,0.0,14.6027,0.0,20.6936,19.8896,13.7734,0.0,-20.1638,64.4779,0.0,14.4161,33.4652,47.4907,19.7263,20.4229,0.0,8.3754,0.0,0.0,0.0,11.7974,20.8079,18.312,8.9698,18.8735,-9.6597,-19.1393,-52.5769,-58.3182,-39.5325,-58.185,-49.1298,0.0,-53.2731,-33.249,-26.5471,-27.2601,-9.3632,0.0,0.0,37.3985,-19.8309,34.72,-34.2711,-15.3225,30.3038,-38.7347,-48.5258,-53.4768,-66.2052,-18.3033,25.9487,0.0,0.0,34.3657,-17.4421,0.0,11.7562,0.0,-27.1827,-9.3564,0.0,17.584,0.0,18.8846,-11.4232,25.2687,23.1099,23.4003,9.7956],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,0.0,12.1673,13.902,14.3504,3.8951,13.2824,-9.9122,-16.0665,-45.3298,-51.1634,-29.0765,-59.9144,-50.2749,0.0,-55.6053,-38.3644,-32.804,-23.9128,-7.9454,0.0,0.0,34.4602,-24.9198,34.4657,-39.7621,-11.8703,23.6427,-29.3621,-46.503,-53.6835,-68.9032,-6.8601,29.4218,0.0,0.0,29.8048,-13.1849,0.0,10.8453,0.0,-37.6322,-13.7178,0.0,25.028,0.0,19.1058,-12.6286,22.8843,22.8813,21.9073,16.45],"force":[0.0,0.0,11.5465,29.1442,9.474,4.3375,19.1975,-27.1979,-35.8858,-83.2416,-77.5747,-36.6034,-52.7369,-31.3663,0.0,-53.4478,-14.9569,-7.7333,-9.9925,-11.0878,0.0,0.0,67.6901,-33.2923,55.0153,-47.8722,-7.4457,64.6844,-67.5894,-57.5606,-56.807,-70.5194,-12.6657,56.8196,0.0,0.0,46.7175,-46.2892,0.0,15.9104,0.0,-32.6461,-5.2178,0.0,19.1032,0.0,19.1389,-21.062,33.9457,18.9261,19.3725,35.512],"direction":[0.0,0.0,11.5541,22.7458,29.1524,24.2746,25.0318,-3.156,-10.6893,-38.9558,-52.7404,-53.5743,-60.1,-60.5094,0.0,-50.483,-40.4688,-32.8348,-43.4195,-25.5915,0.0,0.0,19.1195,-4.3995,20.5139,-18.2806,-24.8943,13.3589,-28.8357,-44.3841,-50.862,-60.0401,-53.5018,0.0712,0.0,0.0,30.7555,-1.7025,0.0,9.8298,0.0,-11.3379,-7.3281,0.0,7.9914,0.0,18.4503,-3.1607,21.796,26.3595,27.9836,16.1782],"intensity":[3.8462,13.4615,3.8462,71.1538,44.2308,5.7692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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+9.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+16.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+35.5","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+16.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"30/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.6%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"63%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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