{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BRAP3 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"8860f143-390b-4d3e-b5f0-1428cb536327","symbol":"BRAP3","name":"Bradespar S.A.","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Asset Management"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":2.8,"averageExpectedMove":6.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":31.2,"averageReturn":-0.7,"medianReturn":-2.9,"confidenceLow":14.2,"confidenceHigh":55.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":25.0,"averageReturn":-1.2,"medianReturn":-5.5,"confidenceLow":10.2,"confidenceHigh":49.5,"confidence":"Historically adverse"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-1.5,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":26.8,"confidenceHigh":73.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":5.3,"averageExpectedMove":5.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-1.2,"medianReturn":-1.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-4.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-6.9,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-11.6,"sample":1},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Downside evidence leads price","tone":"negative","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"The downside remains supported. Further price weakness would confirm that price is catching up with the weaker underlying position.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":36.8,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":19},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 36.8% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.7% across 19 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 8 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.4 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 6.8% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-09-13","price":14.21172},{"date":"2024-09-27","price":15.006116},{"date":"2025-03-28","price":14.34115},{"date":"2025-10-24","price":14.290223}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-03-06","price":19.459999},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":19.76}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-04-03","price":19.99}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[13.9813,14.2197,14.2197,14.2117,14.1005,15.0061,14.5613,14.3309,14.1164,14.2832,14.3785,14.3627,13.8882,13.8966,14.0966,13.7965,13.8715,13.5229,13.4132,12.9576,12.6118,13.2445,12.8227,12.983,13.0673,13.1939,13.3794,13.1179,13.0758,13.4807,13.9784,14.3412,13.4807,13.9362,13.835,14.0628,13.7218,13.6152,13.9883,13.4465,13.0468,13.0912,12.8781,12.8692,12.958,13.6774,13.6774,13.3133,13.3666,12.8692,13.1445,12.9758,13.18,13.4287,13.6152,13.7307,13.855,13.7929,13.9083,13.855,13.9705,14.2902,15.054,15.0629,15.0198,15.3073,16.1516,16.5598,17.0978,17.81,18.3,18.08,18.26,19.41,21.09,20.77,20.9,20.49,20.27,21.39,19.46,19.43,18.81,19.52,19.99,20.77,21.3,20.53,19.76,19.86,19.62,19.86,19.68,18.94,19.12,19.17,19.16,19.21,18.61,18.36,18.53,18.6,18.57,17.67],"consensus":[-17.752,20.6752,0.0,0.0,0.0,58.6557,-13.2847,-9.3399,-19.4186,0.0,0.0,0.0,-40.2698,-17.0495,0.0,-38.6445,-9.5977,-38.4865,-36.6769,-58.2226,-58.5502,15.8186,-49.6905,-8.9865,0.0,8.1844,18.9553,-20.2189,-9.1381,36.8836,54.0547,53.2255,-26.5101,45.365,0.0,22.0121,-10.1511,-11.2141,34.3282,-42.1044,-53.1519,-23.1388,-46.442,-26.6542,0.0,45.2026,19.8966,-12.958,0.0,-46.3776,0.0,-27.2885,0.0,29.5569,27.5586,25.7285,34.1244,12.4857,25.4489,8.1952,22.9566,52.441,76.2287,32.1473,23.6137,62.6913,80.0565,63.9958,77.1858,74.6385,70.0519,31.8591,43.9704,81.4219,88.686,20.3858,43.6328,14.7039,17.1116,67.3596,-41.782,0.0,-35.8849,13.5673,31.7078,46.7664,53.4863,0.0,-26.3564,0.0,-23.198,0.0,-18.8729,-47.6824,-10.3896,-18.3625,-16.3486,0.0,-33.8627,-43.0903,-19.4065,-14.3709,-18.1885,-62.3689],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,28.9941,23.0636,19.325,31.1782,6.1421,23.2607,4.8291,24.0222,55.7973,79.4937,20.9702,11.5438,66.2868,81.8966,52.6253,77.1226,68.5135,72.6054,25.9465,30.9003,80.7654,91.4206,10.1232,32.3783,6.4996,30.7491,70.7789,-36.0753,0.0,-31.6933,31.0507,36.3456,46.8598,58.1509,0.0,-26.4745,0.0,-13.7946,0.0,-23.1937,-52.9178,-1.0709,-12.0502,-9.9131,0.0,-31.4535,-41.7924,-12.1523,-4.8877,-18.4491,-62.5367],"force":[0.0,35.4377,28.8471,17.0033,28.4628,5.0922,17.1488,8.6136,14.6961,53.195,87.9267,6.4187,8.406,56.3793,91.9073,72.6838,82.4578,82.9135,55.6585,16.6545,27.2795,91.9031,98.1927,39.1713,21.2116,39.0278,17.3793,77.4627,-95.177,0.0,-44.879,26.9449,36.618,52.5086,50.629,0.0,-44.4025,0.0,-26.038,0.0,-19.4055,-42.5834,-9.2216,-4.4229,-3.9191,0.0,-21.3432,-31.1711,-3.9978,-4.6879,-8.565,-73.9591],"direction":[0.0,25.9995,31.7752,39.2791,41.5356,32.2911,33.8783,24.0485,27.639,48.0669,64.1416,63.2987,60.2791,63.0907,69.4887,70.7849,73.4925,75.7277,77.4145,73.269,70.8296,74.6856,78.7701,74.6553,72.5104,62.4599,26.1624,56.2353,-10.1647,0.0,-34.251,15.9692,22.9003,42.558,50.1962,0.0,-13.3315,0.0,-31.916,0.0,-13.5543,-45.3413,-35.0475,-35.5334,-32.5815,0.0,-45.5585,-53.0873,-44.4145,-38.8223,-24.7646,-53.8985],"intensity":[15.3846,28.8462,67.3077,76.9231,5.7692,40.3846,1.9231,1.9231,3.8462,51.9231,96.1538,92.3077,3.8462,46.1538,100.0,100.0,75.0,98.0769,82.6923,38.4615,67.3077,100.0,100.0,98.0769,55.7692,53.8462,96.1538,96.1538,100.0,96.1538,69.2308,73.0769,65.3846,86.5385,75.0,78.8462,80.7692,44.2308,40.3846,50.0,55.7692,71.1538,13.4615,13.4615,5.7692,11.5385,71.1538,26.9231,15.3846,5.7692,38.4615,76.9231],"confirmation":[27.4914,77.646,76.9265,76.0648,78.7922,27.3094,75.924,3.9991,75.0781,84.753,92.6999,55.0067,31.2244,87.8141,93.9512,88.9167,92.8611,92.2298,89.939,35.0261,81.761,94.3844,96.6276,35.888,81.4507,11.5186,30.591,89.8109,83.0845,48.119,79.8211,30.5562,78.2255,83.1388,84.9575,31.5211,76.9822,26.0539,75.6532,27.7635,73.9897,83.0232,4.8363,50.8807,50.2841,25.3874,78.4912,81.4454,51.7936,27.8291,73.5231,96.3087],"persistence":[12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5],"assessmentRisk":[30.6803,32.9432,32.0364,36.571,31.9723,36.0226,30.279,20.8141,14.5206,22.8548,11.8828,33.9246,38.1888,18.6477,9.9338,17.9995,11.407,12.6808,14.974,34.0606,27.9528,9.27,5.6556,39.8022,28.1784,40.4505,52.6149,4.5876,25.5353,37.9697,28.55,55.304,10.8127,21.666,22.9292,45.4187,0.8137,38.9797,36.9593,36.2043,3.9454,22.842,30.8895,34.2087,31.4442,29.1591,25.2955,27.3543,37.9655,41.341,2.1416,16.7799],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-62.4,"control":-62.5,"force":-74.0,"direction":-53.9,"confirmation":96.3,"persistence":87.5,"assessmentRisk":16.8,"intensity":76.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-62.4","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-62.5","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-74.0","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-53.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"96/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"38.4","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.7%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"22.9","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"1%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned downward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[13.9813,14.2197,14.2197,14.2117,14.1005,15.0061,14.5613,14.3309,14.1164,14.2832,14.3785,14.3627,13.8882,13.8966,14.0966,13.7965,13.8715,13.5229,13.4132,12.9576,12.6118,13.2445,12.8227,12.983,13.0673,13.1939,13.3794,13.1179,13.0758,13.4807,13.9784,14.3412,13.4807,13.9362,13.835,14.0628,13.7218,13.6152,13.9883,13.4465,13.0468,13.0912,12.8781,12.8692,12.958,13.6774,13.6774,13.3133,13.3666,12.8692,13.1445,12.9758,13.18,13.4287,13.6152,13.7307,13.855,13.7929,13.9083,13.855,13.9705,14.2902,15.054,15.0629,15.0198,15.3073,16.1516,16.5598,17.0978,17.81,18.3,18.08,18.26,19.41,21.09,20.77,20.9,20.49,20.27,21.39,19.46,19.43,18.81,19.52,19.99,20.77,21.3,20.53,19.76,19.86,19.62,19.86,19.68,18.94,19.12,19.17,19.16,19.21,18.61,18.36,18.53,18.6,18.57,17.67],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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