{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"FCEL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"896df854-0d93-4682-972b-ecce12fad08b","symbol":"FCEL","name":"FuelCell Energy Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Electrical Equipment & Parts"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. 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adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-15.9,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-14.7,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-15.5,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-16.3,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-13.5,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-18.5,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-20.2,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-23.2,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-24.2,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-22.6,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-23.1,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-25.2,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-23.9,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-21.8,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-24.4,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-24.5,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-18.7,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":65.0,"averageReturn":10.6,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 65.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 10.6% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 16.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 24.2% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-11-29","price":11.87},{"date":"2025-10-03","price":10.21},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":13.31}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[13.5,12.144,13.116,14.427,12.954,11.988,10.593,10.395,9.975,9.612,10.464,7.503,6.16,8.28,11.87,10.47,11.39,10.42,10.04,11.81,10.85,9.59,8.41,7.68,7.37,7.85,7.07,5.77,6.59,6.18,5.14,4.7,4.46,4.1,3.89,3.82,4.035,4.28,4.12,5.48,5.11,6.47,6.03,5.96,5.51,5.5,5.37,5.31,5.62,4.72,4.27,4.18,4.2,4.2,4.05,6.87,8.36,7.9,10.21,9.26,8.48,7.95,8.95,7.52,7.04,6.24,6.71,8.37,8.76,8.34,8.48,8.17,7.58,8.04,10.13,8.19,7.19,7.22,7.68,8.14,7.6,6.63,6.59,6.53,6.6,6.65,7.25,11.18,13.31,13.7,21.36,25.01,21.66,17.33,16.94,24.04,24.0,28.11,21.03,18.495,21.26,21.61,20.43,22.37],"consensus":[-35.1171,-40.775,-8.8922,0.0,-32.4607,-27.8865,-42.2656,-24.4363,-30.6624,-32.7829,-8.2673,-59.3202,-43.081,0.0,35.5466,-8.892,16.6701,0.0,-16.499,30.1279,-11.2762,-22.7688,-33.805,-31.2219,-30.2877,0.0,-36.4213,-48.0043,0.0,-32.6429,-46.8984,-40.4956,-32.3848,-33.9527,-36.2764,-28.4075,-18.9789,0.0,-20.5977,46.5504,0.0,51.4359,0.0,0.0,-13.6108,0.0,-12.1265,0.0,11.5549,-35.7957,-39.0296,-23.6244,-15.1256,-20.9953,-12.9782,69.7662,74.4204,16.0773,77.3485,0.0,-9.2885,0.0,40.6198,-31.4675,-23.0176,-35.8371,0.0,43.1936,34.1847,0.0,15.8837,0.0,-27.4789,14.018,59.7222,-30.5055,-28.7571,-15.7086,0.0,9.6765,-17.2147,-40.1801,-27.7354,-30.5432,-11.9564,0.0,20.5189,67.9021,72.9992,55.846,84.282,80.0873,0.0,-12.1337,0.0,63.3125,32.7877,54.7494,-21.5401,-25.813,14.6402,0.0,0.0,-27.5957],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-8.1887,-25.5594,-12.596,61.6519,71.2852,6.8373,74.1572,0.0,-12.2364,0.0,46.3812,-24.4697,-22.3425,-34.5942,0.0,43.6509,34.9095,0.0,8.0109,0.0,-29.912,20.6725,58.4928,-36.4818,-30.3138,-14.098,0.0,12.0263,-25.5576,-44.4427,-28.105,-29.3167,-3.0829,0.0,17.9639,58.7498,69.3235,54.0344,83.2061,76.4215,0.0,-23.4328,0.0,72.0023,31.5936,40.4135,-30.393,-20.3244,19.7899,0.0,0.0,-27.2653],"force":[-1.7753,-10.6183,-2.9706,98.6992,90.5,33.1626,92.865,0.0,-64.6184,0.0,61.3444,-73.9046,-31.5681,-42.3678,0.0,62.9344,26.2377,0.0,7.9893,0.0,-38.8945,21.8913,79.7602,-66.0587,-37.3513,-5.6978,0.0,15.7147,-24.3701,-45.4281,-15.2156,-20.3325,-3.019,0.0,42.6567,94.0343,88.7404,42.9125,96.3669,89.9173,0.0,-74.446,0.0,83.5887,10.2726,67.2887,-76.7892,-46.6437,22.9448,0.0,0.0,-33.0133],"direction":[-32.5894,-23.1913,-20.5634,58.3733,66.5181,61.8086,69.9123,0.0,-33.602,0.0,19.2321,-9.1529,-17.6817,-32.5927,0.0,28.5705,39.0328,0.0,30.52,0.0,-16.5441,0.7891,46.8144,-1.7195,-20.8394,-24.6997,0.0,2.6781,-2.569,-31.56,-36.2557,-39.2384,-32.7944,0.0,7.6261,59.6962,65.9564,67.1546,76.8796,77.2554,0.0,-45.2884,0.0,38.8985,50.2346,62.1767,-28.0411,-17.2066,2.8229,0.0,0.0,-24.1036],"intensity":[3.8462,15.3846,21.1538,92.3077,86.5385,76.9231,90.3846,80.7692,40.3846,94.2308,57.6923,71.1538,61.5385,42.3077,25.0,88.4615,86.5385,88.4615,78.8462,61.5385,30.7692,25.0,94.2308,88.4615,82.6923,32.6923,25.0,69.2308,30.7692,67.3077,11.5385,1.9231,34.6154,7.6923,42.3077,100.0,94.2308,84.6154,100.0,96.1538,96.1538,92.3077,98.0769,98.0769,67.3077,100.0,94.2308,96.1538,76.9231,34.6154,73.0769,61.5385],"confirmation":[49.8724,74.3327,49.1872,91.3306,92.3524,10.8596,93.273,14.3648,34.4487,5.7521,81.5422,79.4696,75.6365,79.6858,28.9558,82.4166,78.6859,6.7294,50.2955,24.4037,77.1041,49.9576,87.7405,56.4544,77.4405,50.0795,28.4292,48.578,50.933,80.9526,76.4881,77.4813,26.8156,25.833,52.613,90.6646,91.8955,85.5042,95.3549,93.9834,38.2674,37.9378,26.5169,88.7455,77.8241,86.1204,37.0905,76.9786,50.1928,24.6755,24.8638,44.64],"persistence":[50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[42.0515,28.1629,25.3473,14.9464,12.7775,41.928,11.3247,47.2979,9.783,2.5918,60.155,28.6492,29.4736,25.6805,47.5805,6.6305,28.4689,47.2547,38.7346,14.2005,31.2565,25.0844,17.0602,16.1841,3.5899,25.2722,49.8677,7.3212,29.6903,7.9183,27.3902,31.7276,33.661,5.03,20.3946,15.9685,13.4978,22.0762,7.8586,9.9556,47.7168,47.9681,44.5523,45.5755,13.5019,22.434,48.5312,30.1843,35.9276,45.7839,4.3778,25.1152],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-27.6,"control":-27.3,"force":-33.0,"direction":-24.1,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":25.1,"intensity":61.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-27.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-27.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-33.0","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-24.1","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"59.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"24.9%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"42.4","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"51%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[13.5,12.144,13.116,14.427,12.954,11.988,10.593,10.395,9.975,9.612,10.464,7.503,6.16,8.28,11.87,10.47,11.39,10.42,10.04,11.81,10.85,9.59,8.41,7.68,7.37,7.85,7.07,5.77,6.59,6.18,5.14,4.7,4.46,4.1,3.89,3.82,4.035,4.28,4.12,5.48,5.11,6.47,6.03,5.96,5.51,5.5,5.37,5.31,5.62,4.72,4.27,4.18,4.2,4.2,4.05,6.87,8.36,7.9,10.21,9.26,8.48,7.95,8.95,7.52,7.04,6.24,6.71,8.37,8.76,8.34,8.48,8.17,7.58,8.04,10.13,8.19,7.19,7.22,7.68,8.14,7.6,6.63,6.59,6.53,6.6,6.65,7.25,11.18,13.31,13.7,21.36,25.01,21.66,17.33,16.94,24.04,24.0,28.11,21.03,18.495,21.26,21.61,20.43,22.37],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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