{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"4012 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"89ff6cbf-2788-421d-b6bd-39e9381ad83d","symbol":"4012","name":"Thob Al Aseel Company","exchange":"SAU","country":"SA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"SAR","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Apparel Manufacturing"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":15,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":5.8,"averageExpectedMove":7.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":46.7,"averageReturn":0.8,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":24.8,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":20.0,"averageReturn":-5.6,"medianReturn":-7.7,"confidenceLow":7.0,"confidenceHigh":45.2,"confidence":"Historically adverse"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":23.1,"averageReturn":-10.6,"medianReturn":-13.2,"confidenceLow":8.2,"confidenceHigh":50.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.6,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-8.8,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-8.8,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-10.6,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":62.5,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 62.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -3.1% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 10.5% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-02-06","price":3.60027}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[4.1387,4.2405,4.2405,4.3238,4.3609,4.3053,4.1757,4.4442,4.3979,4.259,4.5368,4.2961,4.1294,4.009,3.9165,3.9998,3.9535,3.8887,3.8331,3.935,4.0553,4.0553,4.009,3.8887,3.8794,3.8887,3.8516,3.8609,3.7396,3.7966,3.7681,3.9104,3.9104,3.6257,3.8725,3.8915,3.825,3.7586,3.9579,3.9199,3.8155,3.7966,3.7681,3.5498,3.882,3.9674,3.9864,3.9199,3.825,3.717,3.7268,3.5711,3.5905,3.6489,3.503,3.464,3.5516,3.6878,3.6489,3.6781,3.5322,3.464,3.4738,3.3862,3.3959,3.2792,3.2402,3.2597,3.2694,3.1429,3.2013,3.2889,3.2694,3.2208,3.2792,3.6003,3.6003,3.5808,3.6489,3.54,3.5,3.55,3.56,3.57,3.73,3.73,3.8,3.78,3.72,3.68,3.65,3.69,3.69,3.69,3.68,3.75,3.7,3.69,3.5235,3.5332,3.4847,3.4459,3.64,3.51],"consensus":[23.2328,29.3811,17.0915,30.9109,29.8495,0.0,-24.2591,51.8766,0.0,-22.8934,58.0829,-32.9942,-42.9688,-42.6597,-43.0808,-12.0309,-36.7367,-34.0188,-40.2064,0.0,23.6888,0.0,-8.9787,-40.7761,-26.2045,-22.0839,-33.3266,0.0,-41.7311,0.0,-26.921,27.2618,12.7879,-43.1333,29.8103,0.0,-17.7106,-18.7247,30.6525,0.0,-20.7843,0.0,-21.8354,-54.301,43.8374,37.7634,28.5051,0.0,-20.7324,-41.59,-15.8865,-57.6739,-27.3165,-8.2051,-56.5817,-33.0899,0.0,28.0252,0.0,15.3561,-38.125,-43.8467,-29.6897,-51.395,-17.7771,-52.1189,-45.6983,-31.8557,-22.137,-57.9598,-14.0483,12.7013,-17.9061,-25.6397,20.5509,57.7776,23.8968,18.7906,43.8489,-15.4483,0.0,17.1773,0.0,13.1567,56.9903,33.186,50.8203,17.5188,0.0,-9.669,-15.4345,15.1626,0.0,0.0,0.0,37.8409,-9.4925,0.0,-49.2857,-26.6806,-45.1566,-47.5158,46.8194,-42.1212],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-25.7163,-10.1652,-61.6966,-32.6699,0.0,28.641,0.0,8.6596,-34.667,-44.5602,-31.7079,-55.7891,-9.2546,-55.1204,-47.4658,-33.3248,-15.9396,-60.7053,-14.1019,11.2939,-21.9669,-36.4348,20.7309,43.527,12.4221,8.7031,31.7522,-18.8162,0.0,19.0391,0.0,12.6992,47.8266,31.5986,51.3624,6.1189,0.0,-12.3757,-13.2956,24.1393,0.0,0.0,0.0,44.7319,-13.531,0.0,-48.4842,-21.6697,-47.6556,-50.0558,43.064,-41.7239],"force":[-7.6027,-17.7839,-60.5155,-19.6592,0.0,55.8087,0.0,18.851,-67.2286,-44.7108,-14.0579,-46.9639,-2.8526,-46.6289,-29.0069,-7.2264,-0.0515,-60.2359,-16.8966,46.5818,-16.0718,-29.6547,44.332,84.775,0.3704,9.4794,49.4023,-51.59,0.0,17.8282,0.0,3.0195,81.1482,17.5901,47.5265,7.2187,0.0,-27.4793,-26.1375,21.4189,0.0,0.0,0.0,43.516,-25.9557,0.0,-56.6023,-9.2703,-33.2615,-33.1417,90.9824,-66.6175],"direction":[-43.2266,-24.5286,-47.9262,-43.163,0.0,7.4761,0.0,20.5127,-21.2889,-42.414,-38.5488,-49.5383,-42.2528,-52.6098,-55.6008,-47.769,-45.0687,-53.1962,-36.0907,9.8907,-14.5754,-10.4347,3.3587,54.7803,53.8152,50.512,53.7069,-14.2161,0.0,14.5845,0.0,20.9205,50.2075,46.1402,52.5536,48.2169,0.0,-6.1462,-10.2339,0.4348,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.9119,-6.8824,0.0,-44.9756,-44.8434,-50.797,-54.8801,19.5662,-25.078],"intensity":[7.6923,9.6154,63.4615,53.8462,25.0,75.0,7.6923,21.1538,82.6923,40.3846,28.8462,30.7692,26.9231,59.6154,34.6154,5.7692,15.3846,69.2308,17.3077,40.3846,26.9231,11.5385,30.7692,100.0,92.3077,32.6923,23.0769,63.4615,86.5385,75.0,3.8462,1.9231,82.6923,55.7692,26.9231,38.4615,38.4615,9.6154,15.3846,42.3077,73.0769,25.0,15.3846,30.7692,17.3077,5.7692,88.4615,3.8462,38.4615,9.6154,88.4615,76.9231],"confirmation":[53.4982,28.2643,86.1481,78.1858,31.0925,55.1387,24.1229,73.1225,81.1397,82.0464,76.9936,84.2444,51.1317,84.465,82.0878,54.7541,51.8464,86.5747,29.8228,29.8951,73.6122,76.1626,52.6316,87.5288,52.4382,29.9941,82.3852,31.693,24.6915,73.4882,47.9894,49.2415,87.1128,78.1684,84.1539,29.2325,5.1829,50.2401,73.2978,50.2393,1.5826,24.5448,23.9907,80.177,50.2794,24.5077,84.0066,76.0836,82.0495,82.7283,84.3853,90.2314],"persistence":[37.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,37.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[33.7122,20.0169,18.2657,16.5673,18.5127,6.2116,45.2716,41.6176,8.6366,27.36,33.3097,24.1554,37.6802,22.6409,26.8149,30.6276,35.4708,18.4202,20.1682,12.8802,8.953,55.2217,31.5111,20.7571,37.8471,40.4829,28.0091,17.9406,40.2409,22.4931,39.1845,8.1125,20.3107,30.41,23.7375,39.6229,7.3684,27.1153,41.1985,51.7211,26.5424,8.6172,24.0198,20.5412,13.1821,1.9508,24.8689,36.6267,27.3842,26.2307,21.766,7.7298],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-42.1,"control":-41.7,"force":-66.6,"direction":-25.1,"confirmation":90.2,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":7.7,"intensity":76.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-42.1","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-41.7","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-66.6","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-25.1","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"90/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"45.0","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.0%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"38%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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