{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MUSA Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"8ced99e7-8d28-4246-9e10-7008fb514dc1","symbol":"MUSA","name":"Murphy USA Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Specialty Retail"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":22},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":22},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":22},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":22},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":22},{"week":6,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":22},{"week":7,"averageReturn":8.5,"sample":22},{"week":8,"averageReturn":9.8,"sample":22},{"week":9,"averageReturn":9.9,"sample":22},{"week":10,"averageReturn":11.0,"sample":22},{"week":11,"averageReturn":13.5,"sample":22},{"week":12,"averageReturn":14.2,"sample":21},{"week":13,"averageReturn":14.5,"sample":21},{"week":14,"averageReturn":14.2,"sample":21},{"week":15,"averageReturn":12.8,"sample":21},{"week":16,"averageReturn":12.9,"sample":21},{"week":17,"averageReturn":12.6,"sample":21},{"week":18,"averageReturn":14.4,"sample":21},{"week":19,"averageReturn":13.6,"sample":21},{"week":20,"averageReturn":13.8,"sample":21},{"week":21,"averageReturn":14.6,"sample":21},{"week":22,"averageReturn":16.4,"sample":21},{"week":23,"averageReturn":18.7,"sample":21},{"week":24,"averageReturn":19.0,"sample":21},{"week":25,"averageReturn":20.1,"sample":21},{"week":26,"averageReturn":18.7,"sample":21}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-8.5,"medianReturn":-8.5,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-8.6,"sample":1},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":57.1,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 57.1% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 1.3% across 14 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.8 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.8% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-11-21","price":380.785522}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-06-19","price":551.26},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":520.07}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-12","price":622.53},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":590.23}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[509.0014,514.9087,503.5925,528.405,491.9591,495.0508,479.1565,485.5776,476.2432,469.069,480.3654,514.0446,524.906,540.9252,543.3653,535.202,546.4402,515.7805,501.14,496.359,485.3191,472.4342,473.0591,498.8387,477.1458,482.9484,442.8556,465.9398,452.2468,448.0068,437.9977,457.1421,466.7342,510.3055,506.9493,488.0929,499.6907,445.8123,454.8191,441.2596,424.2705,422.7296,399.9251,403.8517,405.4622,420.5128,422.1431,418.5047,420.0953,360.0519,375.6691,391.346,376.3352,374.8102,385.6115,388.4387,381.2611,390.6687,393.6851,376.3632,385.5418,377.7967,356.5923,362.0477,355.5946,380.7855,384.0167,391.6258,405.2983,403.7725,403.8921,404.2212,425.9217,440.3222,430.7684,421.3542,376.8563,406.3354,388.9232,390.2982,437.9342,456.2035,472.6349,505.6676,501.8419,492.6723,490.5746,530.6892,596.245,577.2166,561.0449,542.74,506.03,546.51,622.53,551.26,526.33,560.75,590.23,618.57,613.15,607.76,520.07,569.12],"consensus":[28.8288,38.2815,0.0,58.0404,-42.6325,0.0,-37.8884,0.0,-36.3975,-38.2722,0.0,52.1955,43.0518,57.5304,27.1936,12.501,45.8505,-42.4799,-40.2401,-23.5271,-45.9714,-51.6833,-33.4718,30.1088,-47.0255,0.0,-71.7187,0.0,-46.0334,-38.7789,-34.5817,10.4184,12.8465,64.4675,22.1808,0.0,36.0736,-57.8288,0.0,-42.6722,-58.2338,-27.0789,-64.5649,-23.3565,-30.9915,0.0,0.0,-14.7953,0.0,-68.0937,-8.3914,0.0,-47.7006,-15.0298,11.5901,0.0,-21.6832,13.4683,12.2838,-33.842,12.9086,-19.1084,-52.9926,-12.345,-36.1492,29.5418,22.7398,27.2854,48.4215,20.6733,15.186,19.651,57.9066,52.5219,17.9122,0.0,-57.4272,26.2288,-32.4619,-11.2664,61.8679,53.47,54.2655,70.9441,37.7867,18.1378,19.3498,63.0474,81.3359,20.6413,13.9401,0.0,-37.2414,37.109,70.1496,-22.8749,-18.8363,36.9391,30.7026,55.6463,19.8056,21.3407,-61.4601,-23.1017],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-47.4248,-22.9323,14.4014,0.0,-26.7878,10.1094,13.2696,-35.7101,13.6393,-15.7358,-43.5942,-10.3904,-37.1181,31.5382,19.7834,22.4952,46.2801,15.3377,5.0411,16.1966,56.9035,49.4445,9.5944,0.0,-49.1996,33.6028,-26.5675,-4.4548,54.6129,50.8096,52.6177,70.4206,35.6424,9.8888,14.1419,67.7324,82.4454,9.2241,0.1085,0.0,-34.58,50.7353,70.0857,-29.0712,-26.3866,42.634,42.9469,61.8511,9.5679,16.599,-54.9655,-37.0431],"force":[-48.8926,-2.7994,37.3701,0.0,-26.6652,28.4284,18.107,-43.5955,31.9573,-21.8782,-81.2942,-9.4657,-29.4645,58.1502,25.5645,27.0107,53.7144,2.641,0.0874,6.4086,69.1616,47.1706,14.3028,0.0,-93.6466,67.361,-45.3168,-1.4428,93.5789,58.6565,50.7716,81.0018,7.2343,16.847,3.7024,68.2495,96.8988,23.1226,26.1016,0.0,-64.5457,51.1553,86.1454,-69.59,-37.8249,49.2144,33.1995,51.6016,5.6076,0.6794,-95.2701,-52.644],"direction":[-47.1643,-18.7335,10.0371,0.0,-12.2908,6.6213,6.9979,-24.7401,1.5328,-20.9842,-43.5182,-30.1578,-39.8167,6.8257,24.101,32.9562,47.0882,39.6513,37.6898,33.0576,51.0137,59.8613,50.4289,0.0,-40.9591,11.5789,-30.0162,-26.068,47.5086,52.8057,58.6443,64.3583,62.0606,52.5543,41.7675,53.9774,68.9514,64.9494,58.5968,0.0,-20.78,11.503,58.7969,-17.5745,-3.3557,21.6627,14.9256,51.4442,49.6582,41.5179,-44.7326,-13.9329],"intensity":[36.5385,55.7692,15.3846,11.5385,36.5385,17.3077,5.7692,51.9231,13.4615,28.8462,63.4615,76.9231,9.6154,75.0,32.6923,40.3846,36.5385,42.3077,11.5385,3.8462,71.1538,82.6923,19.2308,32.6923,90.3846,90.3846,55.7692,19.2308,88.4615,82.6923,75.0,80.7692,82.6923,63.4615,26.9231,86.5385,98.0769,96.1538,57.6923,78.8462,82.6923,86.5385,100.0,96.1538,84.6154,71.1538,80.7692,65.3846,42.3077,42.3077,100.0,90.3846],"confirmation":[83.3047,50.0763,29.2596,3.073,75.0127,50.1503,49.4266,79.0982,50.3605,74.2505,85.9634,28.0015,79.3493,55.6282,75.4079,76.796,83.6888,51.4805,27.234,51.2707,86.8884,84.6908,30.5948,5.6627,87.6059,34.6712,78.8694,26.0763,88.8747,85.309,85.2836,91.0166,56.5266,31.1243,51.6919,88.2623,94.4849,33.0449,9.0461,7.0897,80.7899,80.0953,90.9363,35.0651,52.5405,80.1078,77.7143,85.589,52.2489,51.6049,88.7966,33.7195],"persistence":[50.0,62.5,50.0,37.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[24.9744,39.5288,17.3569,7.363,23.5037,27.1276,14.1704,11.0391,4.3954,19.4573,23.2934,36.4922,31.6347,2.5766,37.5987,35.6854,25.7573,37.4468,38.9493,29.383,18.0213,23.4952,39.7944,42.1286,20.9765,60.6878,32.7949,41.2374,18.6774,22.1539,22.8106,14.5225,30.6612,36.5626,22.4354,6.5404,9.1904,39.5492,42.5519,19.6203,31.1629,57.9931,12.3273,21.7787,32.5363,1.9384,47.8047,18.2809,38.6382,31.7708,15.2523,51.0089],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-23.1,"control":-37.0,"force":-52.6,"direction":-13.9,"confirmation":33.7,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":51.0,"intensity":90.4,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-23.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-37.0","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-52.6","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-13.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"34/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"54.6","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.5%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"33.6","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"75%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend 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