{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"PFD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"8d1ecff0-7d17-4134-963f-853b73110e8c","symbol":"PFD","name":"Premier Foods plc","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Packaged Foods"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":8.7,"averageExpectedMove":9.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":1.4,"medianReturn":2.2,"confidenceLow":43.7,"confidenceHigh":83.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":62.5,"averageReturn":2.8,"medianReturn":5.1,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":81.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":53.3,"averageReturn":6.5,"medianReturn":5.6,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":75.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":6.5,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":10.5,"averageExpectedMove":10.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-6.3,"medianReturn":-6.3,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-7.5,"medianReturn":-7.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.5,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":1},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":41.2,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 41.2% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.3% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.9% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-06-13","price":199.97197}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":209.165878},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":206.8}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[176.7752,179.3748,178.575,180.7747,179.1749,185.774,182.3744,183.9742,192.573,189.9734,189.3735,188.3736,180.3747,187.3737,195.5726,187.7737,188.1736,190.3733,186.9738,187.7737,176.7752,178.175,183.5743,187.7737,191.7731,189.7734,182.5744,183.7742,181.3746,179.9748,184.7741,185.174,185.9739,188.3736,195.5726,194.9727,201.4718,203.4715,211.9703,212.4702,207.9709,206.971,199.972,200.4719,199.6,197.0,191.8,188.8,192.6,191.4,190.0,187.6,189.4,188.6,187.0,188.6,192.4,192.2,182.6,179.8,181.4,187.4,182.4,177.0,173.2,176.0,178.8,177.4,173.2,173.8,172.8,169.4,170.8,171.4,189.6,188.8,195.0,194.2,197.8,197.4,192.8,192.8,183.0,180.6,186.6,195.8,196.7,196.9679,198.0677,201.9671,209.1659,205.7664,201.7671,196.4428,202.64,194.7705,206.8,204.6,199.6,191.3,187.2,194.3,193.5,196.2],"consensus":[29.7172,31.2218,13.3186,30.8091,0.0,41.6038,0.0,23.0729,58.1451,8.7067,17.2243,0.0,-40.6003,21.7202,47.351,-18.1267,12.2882,22.7907,-11.6665,9.0385,-50.4221,-12.8936,10.497,15.1492,37.723,0.0,-25.6735,-11.3661,-20.2433,-21.4625,16.1293,0.0,9.0399,25.2249,44.8696,14.5669,54.1212,33.448,56.9683,35.14,11.1298,9.7464,-23.4237,0.0,-9.1075,-26.9083,-36.9436,-29.7682,0.0,-26.0633,-21.9901,-29.7931,0.0,-16.9445,-19.3981,0.0,26.7691,0.0,-50.5715,-29.465,-23.3704,0.0,-30.1392,-39.0989,-42.6916,0.0,0.0,-16.2696,-31.0673,0.0,-22.1614,-36.0108,0.0,0.0,64.233,30.5167,57.3973,35.4777,44.8427,29.4834,-10.9921,14.7116,-47.1892,-21.3834,18.701,45.4084,17.2331,22.5195,21.2356,28.0253,46.2306,14.7219,0.0,0.0,8.3637,-26.0427,46.3969,8.306,0.0,-37.1972,-28.96,0.0,-12.7421,7.4759],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-15.2509,-18.0259,0.0,27.4947,0.0,-46.0768,-22.3118,-20.2267,0.0,-37.3515,-46.5902,-36.9325,0.0,0.0,-20.3369,-35.2791,0.0,-21.1942,-37.7252,0.0,0.0,58.2837,29.3908,58.0567,31.5565,48.3759,26.415,-12.3876,18.9472,-40.2215,-11.3797,27.7154,50.2097,7.0422,15.5706,14.4672,25.6454,39.4439,13.8109,0.0,0.0,15.4258,-25.9402,55.2786,1.1626,0.0,-38.8666,-20.3299,0.0,-8.6034,4.3597],"force":[0.0,-11.5231,-12.6475,0.0,54.4453,0.0,-82.1702,-22.9172,-7.3084,0.0,-36.2509,-35.3703,-49.306,0.0,0.0,-11.0423,-35.0556,0.0,-15.5848,-33.5199,0.0,0.0,96.238,8.3782,58.8862,17.8947,33.3984,10.0973,-47.6006,6.6032,-84.3816,-18.5853,44.2101,62.7014,4.7189,13.0572,14.4756,25.2297,57.2025,13.5213,0.0,0.0,3.5889,-32.1961,58.1618,4.566,0.0,-51.2684,-21.8788,0.0,-10.7598,15.8529],"direction":[0.0,-22.7525,-25.7883,0.0,6.1711,0.0,-33.1377,-42.3172,-38.4361,0.0,-17.5311,-33.2008,-44.5488,0.0,0.0,-15.3552,-23.4049,0.0,-27.9642,-35.8308,0.0,0.0,48.1715,47.6167,55.5801,52.5185,48.9792,46.8373,-16.7516,15.6627,-28.5862,-34.8149,9.8219,27.5689,37.8185,37.2198,33.7996,32.742,46.1498,35.9368,0.0,0.0,3.7034,-21.7644,27.843,25.6642,0.0,-25.2386,-43.881,0.0,-18.8879,5.0539],"intensity":[48.0769,42.3077,46.1538,61.5385,40.3846,53.8462,88.4615,94.2308,26.9231,55.7692,42.3077,57.6923,69.2308,51.9231,25.0,5.7692,65.3846,21.1538,57.6923,26.9231,44.2308,3.8462,100.0,98.0769,63.4615,11.5385,32.6923,13.4615,36.5385,80.7692,86.5385,88.4615,59.6154,82.6923,84.6154,23.0769,7.6923,30.7692,75.0,34.6154,32.6923,96.1538,94.2308,75.0,94.2308,15.3846,73.0769,76.9231,96.1538,65.3846,59.6154,11.5385],"confirmation":[5.6737,73.2828,74.0226,25.2678,54.7318,1.7118,85.2144,77.3383,52.3703,27.8897,77.7209,80.2839,81.9507,6.9176,5.1417,72.985,77.9989,25.8419,74.906,79.4214,3.8969,25.6413,89.6206,77.1078,86.4025,78.8768,81.947,76.8906,30.8522,49.7294,84.3402,74.9099,31.3864,82.9845,27.9552,75.0237,74.6925,76.9192,83.2316,29.4153,28.5019,24.2104,25.0899,76.5228,83.0702,26.0152,1.4086,80.3065,77.1829,30.5778,72.0801,18.2605],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[40.8982,30.6215,30.7962,22.8906,27.8161,44.5183,17.2237,34.7557,38.1759,46.6894,12.4459,10.6178,26.9174,45.7983,34.7096,12.8274,15.5336,21.5623,33.9541,31.1052,27.8812,27.9753,17.5537,34.6308,21.2832,32.2375,22.8091,31.0737,12.9472,19.8505,25.5283,38.8271,46.9574,1.6441,39.7608,38.639,38.6018,29.7008,26.2889,39.8449,32.6668,38.378,46.0092,35.6312,11.7982,40.23,22.9958,7.5281,35.3651,49.6983,31.0698,30.0712],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":7.5,"control":4.4,"force":15.9,"direction":5.1,"confirmation":18.3,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":30.1,"intensity":11.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+7.5","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+4.4","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+15.9","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+5.1","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"18/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.2","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.5%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"60%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend 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