{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ARN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"8daa6b64-b11b-4796-a32c-d4c8047a6fac","symbol":"ARN","name":"Alerion Clean Power S.p.A.","exchange":"MIL","country":"IT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Renewable"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The downward price structure agrees with that pressure, but price has not declined to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned downward","stateTone":"negative","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The downward price structure agrees with that pressure, but price has not declined to the same extent.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Downside evidence leads price","headline":"Market Dynamics remains weaker than price","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The downward price structure agrees with that pressure, but price has not declined to the same extent.","take":"The downside remains supported. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":15,"completedEpisodes":14,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":9.6,"averageExpectedMove":20.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":4.2,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":15.2,"confidenceHigh":58.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":14,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":57.1,"averageReturn":8.3,"medianReturn":1.6,"confidenceLow":32.6,"confidenceHigh":78.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":30.8,"averageReturn":4.2,"medianReturn":-8.0,"confidenceLow":12.7,"confidenceHigh":57.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":9.0,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":8.3,"sample":14},{"week":13,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":14},{"week":14,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":13},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":13},{"week":25,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Downside evidence leads price","tone":"negative","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"The downside remains supported. Further price weakness would confirm that price is catching up with the weaker underlying position.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":66.7,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":18},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 66.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.2% across 18 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.8% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-02","price":15.126223}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":25.9},{"date":"2026-05-22","price":25.200001}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[15.653,16.462,15.352,15.8035,15.145,15.954,15.0698,14.7499,14.8628,14.6747,14.3925,14.1291,15.9917,15.6342,16.97,16.9512,16.0481,14.9945,15.2579,15.8035,15.1262,14.8816,14.2043,14.3925,13.9974,14.3925,13.3954,11.6269,11.8338,12.8498,13.941,13.5271,13.1696,13.3201,14.1103,14.2043,15.1262,14.9991,13.8844,13.8453,15.1164,17.0329,16.0942,15.4684,16.5244,21.4133,21.8533,21.3156,19.8978,18.6169,17.9129,17.7564,19.0667,18.2844,18.4018,18.7733,18.8516,18.4409,19.0667,18.5973,18.6756,19.9467,20.0933,18.8711,18.2453,18.48,18.5387,17.8933,17.072,17.5804,17.6978,18.2453,18.5582,17.8151,17.5218,17.6391,18.0498,18.4604,17.8933,18.48,18.1867,17.9716,18.8907,18.4996,21.4622,23.8578,21.9022,24.1022,26.84,25.9,28.05,25.2,24.4,25.0,22.35,22.8,21.15,22.15,21.0,21.1,20.75,19.86,20.7,20.15],"consensus":[28.4224,48.1749,-27.0834,23.5129,-31.1152,30.7444,-31.3917,-33.2132,0.0,-25.7989,-33.233,-34.3317,51.921,0.0,64.0919,27.8199,-17.4609,-39.2156,0.0,12.5279,-33.2812,-13.9544,-48.4683,-16.9465,-42.3216,0.0,-59.0848,-73.5968,-17.4299,0.0,32.0957,-10.5006,-14.5218,9.8545,27.4851,22.9775,46.5981,22.1055,-32.5277,-9.2518,42.5526,62.6771,0.0,0.0,47.8327,81.266,56.0417,28.6529,0.0,-27.7836,-28.9285,-10.4253,32.3442,-20.7017,9.7065,23.4113,0.0,-11.2314,27.1316,-17.0782,0.0,52.7518,22.2959,-25.2544,-28.3956,0.0,-12.4326,-38.6175,-49.8867,0.0,0.0,19.8634,19.258,-29.5072,-17.7773,0.0,0.0,21.1323,-19.3199,27.8607,0.0,-17.2791,42.1467,0.0,71.5651,80.07,0.0,77.8493,76.4003,8.9204,70.1208,-13.396,-11.5712,19.3889,-37.4306,0.0,-44.1132,0.0,-39.4043,-24.6108,-35.993,-55.7933,0.0,-40.1152],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[33.6707,-27.3191,8.9129,23.3131,0.0,-16.4623,29.9511,-19.8768,0.0,51.4373,18.0848,-31.5952,-28.631,0.0,-4.8792,-43.7983,-48.5253,0.0,0.0,27.5818,13.8037,-40.9436,-17.5553,0.0,0.0,19.067,-30.1179,27.6329,0.0,-13.7282,44.3114,0.0,65.4942,81.2244,0.0,77.8136,73.3429,1.6268,63.3506,-22.1891,-4.4546,28.4374,-39.1209,0.0,-46.9124,0.0,-43.0686,-19.9149,-43.6622,-55.3771,0.0,-43.3531],"force":[60.4559,-39.3443,9.4511,25.7745,0.0,-22.0626,31.7577,-34.3254,0.0,74.0981,10.1018,-52.8945,-39.0955,0.0,-8.8315,-38.8157,-59.584,0.0,0.0,32.8886,25.947,-38.8115,-12.5069,0.0,0.0,28.5294,-28.1362,37.1238,0.0,-30.4882,54.995,0.0,97.1135,94.1116,0.0,94.3516,88.5018,49.8367,80.8078,-78.821,-46.5545,8.1982,-38.952,0.0,-34.4454,0.0,-28.86,-6.1144,-23.9553,-57.6878,0.0,-34.1614],"direction":[10.7483,-0.1772,10.7959,21.8356,0.0,-2.4834,20.6049,-1.5605,0.0,39.0068,35.8187,-1.7351,-20.4836,0.0,-23.6372,-32.5551,-44.5159,0.0,0.0,1.7386,20.7136,-9.791,-21.7956,0.0,0.0,18.2088,-0.682,21.5044,0.0,-11.9022,30.4953,0.0,60.2545,68.7211,0.0,66.1026,71.2507,62.9436,70.2247,-43.3853,-5.2836,17.0411,-34.4122,0.0,-47.8198,0.0,-42.7482,-43.1892,-35.8264,-54.9156,0.0,-40.6673],"intensity":[94.2308,65.3846,5.7692,9.6154,42.3077,15.3846,38.4615,38.4615,46.1538,69.2308,50.0,63.4615,76.9231,32.6923,17.3077,36.5385,51.9231,51.9231,1.9231,25.0,57.6923,46.1538,38.4615,1.9231,69.2308,11.5385,25.0,26.9231,19.2308,80.7692,55.7692,11.5385,96.1538,96.1538,88.4615,88.4615,96.1538,63.4615,84.6154,88.4615,92.3077,44.2308,86.5385,15.3846,76.9231,55.7692,59.6154,5.7692,9.6154,59.6154,46.1538,38.4615],"confirmation":[79.1867,52.463,71.1104,75.5651,1.5889,49.7076,76.7801,51.2813,0.3937,85.5512,74.8272,54.5307,77.4091,26.5378,49.3171,80.2847,84.28,7.2299,26.8052,51.969,74.4495,77.5516,73.5315,27.8871,26.7219,75.0192,51.6199,77.2012,1.1489,73.986,81.8455,24.7923,91.772,94.0328,37.3004,93.4152,92.8635,12.2034,90.8675,38.0688,28.6712,73.7255,79.9984,28.5644,81.7789,28.9395,80.2322,52.7166,79.034,85.9179,6.7407,88.6061],"persistence":[12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,62.5,37.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[39.2965,0.5158,9.9954,16.8187,8.1037,10.6698,21.9716,3.3007,12.1152,21.9772,35.0365,31.2589,12.5065,46.571,43.2734,26.7082,22.6331,43.0004,39.4117,14.9143,39.409,31.581,6.6238,39.7515,41.6402,33.5836,41.9255,32.4463,14.1632,32.0638,27.4706,2.1336,14.1403,9.9632,50.2666,11.0572,11.7479,39.5026,14.9052,34.015,37.7467,32.6484,30.9539,42.1305,23.9063,42.7643,11.9733,25.3275,5.8174,18.7643,10.15,13.0275],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-40.1,"control":-43.4,"force":-34.2,"direction":-40.7,"confirmation":88.6,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":13.0,"intensity":38.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-40.1","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-43.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-34.2","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-40.7","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"89/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"45.6","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.5%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"24.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"25%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend 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