{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HOT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"8f4d41e6-70ee-40b0-995d-f317683a365b","symbol":"HOT","name":"HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Engineering & Construction"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":20},{"week":6,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":20},{"week":7,"averageReturn":10.4,"sample":20},{"week":8,"averageReturn":10.7,"sample":20},{"week":9,"averageReturn":11.4,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":11.7,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":13.1,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":15.2,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":14.2,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":16.8,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":18.8,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":18.9,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":18.6,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":18.5,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":19.2,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":17.7,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":20.4,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":22.1,"sample":18},{"week":24,"averageReturn":23.8,"sample":18},{"week":25,"averageReturn":24.7,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":27.4,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":17.8,"averageExpectedMove":17.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":11.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-4.2,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-17.7,"medianReturn":-17.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-8.7,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-8.7,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-17.7,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-15.9,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-19.3,"sample":1},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":35.3,"averageReturn":9.9,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 35.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 9.9% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 31.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.9% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-03-14","price":167.727524},{"date":"2025-07-18","price":183.076141}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-10","price":459.200012}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":545.5},{"date":"2026-06-05","price":493.799988}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[104.3999,105.7371,101.3433,102.9671,104.3999,106.5968,106.2147,106.6923,112.3278,108.6026,108.125,107.743,108.7936,111.3726,112.7098,123.4077,121.4019,120.4467,123.5987,126.8463,127.4194,129.3298,136.4935,133.628,136.398,140.9828,144.9945,143.9438,156.2655,167.7275,166.6768,157.2207,134.2011,139.9321,153.6865,159.7041,169.0843,154.6983,159.428,162.7781,160.0192,162.1869,155.4866,151.3482,163.1723,160.2163,171.5477,183.0761,188.9882,185.5395,205.3448,217.9572,222.4897,215.5924,215.5924,229.9783,228.7959,217.366,253.2323,256.1884,247.3203,249.8822,245.7437,267.2242,279.6394,266.83,298.9521,308.0172,323.5856,328.7094,328.5123,333.0449,345.8543,369.5024,357.6783,350.9781,360.0432,366.1523,402.2157,404.3835,373.8379,373.2467,385.0708,373.2467,382.1148,445.9648,456.0153,453.8475,440.4,545.5,518.5,470.2,484.6,493.8,486.8,505.5,501.0,499.4,459.2,456.0,448.4,449.2,459.0,440.4],"consensus":[51.7873,40.3149,-31.5688,32.4354,31.7458,44.1194,30.9008,39.8813,76.919,-10.2451,0.0,0.0,0.0,52.977,47.9199,77.3421,24.9276,31.9342,71.9863,72.2297,44.5246,63.7623,67.4664,45.6182,62.1944,62.4591,55.6512,34.3741,61.4376,71.1022,27.8334,0.0,-64.6045,0.0,43.3059,49.4585,65.0844,-21.2059,39.5294,30.7072,-13.2035,28.1382,-26.8929,-35.4367,52.6789,0.0,65.4947,72.845,57.3538,16.4149,75.6159,72.1459,64.6867,18.9097,43.3564,78.2141,26.6934,0.0,71.0142,43.7237,0.0,42.158,0.0,71.6794,58.9364,0.0,73.648,56.9957,66.4283,55.7985,33.1161,53.1678,54.4217,81.7626,34.5363,18.4263,56.5931,38.8044,79.6967,51.0008,0.0,21.2321,23.9162,-17.8357,28.4082,78.775,54.816,39.7582,14.3345,80.1786,8.7134,0.0,51.4417,14.6562,0.0,32.8415,15.1099,27.3362,-48.6252,-25.8749,-38.3067,-17.5579,13.1492,-44.3049],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[72.2657,18.0396,45.0792,81.389,19.7698,0.0,81.1338,39.0818,0.0,33.9863,0.0,74.2019,47.674,0.0,86.6897,60.9272,59.0137,53.0257,23.4466,57.8604,41.0794,85.5369,32.0244,10.1838,69.3173,43.5191,83.1201,50.973,0.0,22.4679,24.8602,-4.6088,27.6084,83.6187,60.9695,38.9714,0.0487,87.0265,2.8626,0.0,53.0796,27.2553,0.0,28.1817,9.6595,37.6221,-52.3252,-14.4309,-35.337,-4.6286,15.7467,-43.8142],"force":[39.1538,49.8832,15.1888,89.9747,6.0595,0.0,57.6169,16.3537,0.0,28.7395,0.0,88.6206,68.6227,0.0,63.1638,37.9854,75.4224,42.3075,2.1034,29.2856,62.8079,92.5103,0.962,18.1674,42.2643,36.3127,94.2792,31.3731,0.0,9.6434,36.3304,-55.7886,36.1226,97.8085,35.1022,10.8625,19.4044,82.8263,61.318,0.0,52.2433,4.5172,0.0,18.2612,8.2431,10.0761,-60.8215,-21.2752,-28.3726,-1.6646,49.4222,-47.7043],"direction":[74.2628,69.0419,61.5073,66.1852,58.0011,0.0,69.0184,68.5788,0.0,61.0817,0.0,56.6957,64.8888,0.0,66.2317,66.0814,68.4777,68.6038,66.3188,64.8636,63.6799,69.7722,62.763,53.9846,52.2861,35.1959,65.3682,65.0524,0.0,28.0974,13.9701,-5.8429,23.8119,59.6441,61.8648,61.2971,54.8716,70.4613,65.4224,0.0,48.9973,13.9526,0.0,48.5814,38.0197,27.9094,-35.6849,-42.2394,-48.7965,-46.0647,15.7286,-42.4375],"intensity":[92.3077,63.4615,38.4615,86.5385,57.6923,75.0,100.0,100.0,51.9231,34.6154,28.8462,92.3077,96.1538,76.9231,96.1538,82.6923,94.2308,25.0,69.2308,19.2308,92.3077,88.4615,59.6154,28.8462,38.4615,73.0769,100.0,75.0,88.4615,61.5385,82.6923,65.3846,32.6923,100.0,98.0769,21.1538,55.7692,100.0,96.1538,94.2308,76.9231,61.5385,21.1538,67.3077,13.4615,19.2308,90.3846,38.4615,32.6923,61.5385,30.7692,59.6154],"confirmation":[87.8061,37.2762,80.9894,93.3386,54.2752,31.2601,90.162,81.2282,37.0407,81.2061,9.2034,91.4153,87.3265,37.3846,91.0491,85.5994,89.6441,85.4866,55.1327,84.2144,85.8738,94.4341,55.5466,31.4492,85.4792,80.2696,93.8952,83.7225,33.6936,74.4223,76.0171,29.7323,77.3379,93.7143,84.8466,79.854,7.928,93.6335,13.8243,33.214,84.4608,50.2107,27.6941,78.1359,28.6317,76.0648,83.8754,76.3142,80.0006,28.2515,31.2957,82.2886],"persistence":[87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[17.634,40.4707,20.2891,5.8395,19.6451,9.4793,14.2998,26.872,44.0839,28.3497,22.8443,0.974,19.8967,44.7538,13.084,21.0503,16.4822,22.0747,31.9245,22.0087,20.4981,9.0248,31.6501,34.6812,12.2579,32.5285,10.0244,24.4867,37.6157,10.7944,51.9079,38.9856,9.2492,10.4424,22.4166,30.0575,42.2989,9.6041,42.5988,22.8625,15.0328,51.4737,35.1399,20.3807,13.155,6.2253,8.0285,31.153,25.809,35.5858,7.0855,11.6039],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-44.3,"control":-43.8,"force":-47.7,"direction":-42.4,"confirmation":82.3,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":11.6,"intensity":59.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-44.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-43.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-47.7","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-42.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"82/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.2%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"32.7","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"43%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend 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