{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"TOCT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"8f611370-2a62-4f4c-8428-b07b93f602d4","symbol":"TOCT","name":"Innovator Equity Defined Protection ETF 2 Yr to October 2027","exchange":"CBOE","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":47,"displayedObservations":47,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","headline":"Upward price structure remains intact, but support is fading","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","take":"Treat the advance as conditional. Renewed Market Dynamics would restore confirmation; continued contraction would increase rollover risk.","tone":"caution","conflict":true},"marketDynamics":{"available":true,"readAvailable":true,"dates":["2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"values":[0.105046,0.194452,0.31426,0.496039,0.551711,0.625692,0.678155,0.639217,0.670482,0.662304,0.665045,0.636501,0.690649,0.687857,0.532122,0.43207,0.33274,0.315872,0.424574],"opens":[26.63,26.85,26.9,26.93,26.985,26.955,27.07,27.04,26.96,27.095,27.08,27.005,27.14,27.095,27.05,27.04,27.175,27.23,27.27],"highs":[26.89,26.9,26.95,27.0245,27.06,27.04,27.14,27.14,27.11,27.129,27.08,27.09,27.14,27.14,27.11,27.125,27.28,27.33,27.3],"lows":[26.63,26.76,26.79,26.84,26.92,26.892,26.99,26.985,26.879,26.99,26.93,26.97,26.96,27.06,26.98,27.01,27.14,27.23,27.23],"closes":[26.84,26.855,26.9002,26.98,26.95,27.01,27.1,26.985,27.005,27.035,26.9796,27.0519,27.135,27.06,27.045,27.125,27.28,27.33,27.27],"hoverRows":[[{"label":"Open","value":"26.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"26.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"26.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"26.8","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market 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above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","tone":"caution"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","annotations":[{"label":"Current tape relationship","value":"Positive support is weakening","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive.","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Price location","value":"Between zones","detail":"Price is travelling between the two major positioning zones.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Latest positioning marker","value":"None in view","detail":"Entering the lower zone alone does not create a positioning confirmation.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Market Dynamics confirmation","value":"Weakening","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path.","tone":"negative"}],"relationshipEvidence":{"available":false,"observations":19,"summary":"More completed weekly history is needed for a dependable ticker-level record."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[],"reversal_dangers":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[26.4007,26.31,26.4103,26.51,26.391,26.3019,26.2796,26.2176,26.425,26.4652,26.427,26.4471,26.5266,26.49,26.5803,26.5704,26.5502,26.6099,26.63,26.5802,26.7,26.645,26.4997,26.3603,26.2074,26.16,26.35,26.59,26.84,26.855,26.9002,26.98,26.95,27.01,27.1,26.985,27.005,27.035,26.9796,27.0519,27.135,27.06,27.045,27.125,27.28,27.33,27.27],"consensus":[-90.9936,-72.7273,47.6842,58.0,0.0,-10.7751,-11.7905,-13.5564,12.1591,8.546,0.0,0.0,13.1211,0.0,14.6796,0.0,8.0476,0.0,12.0831,-10.4197,21.7012,0.0,-20.2413,-25.2019,-37.8527,-36.0328,11.7635,31.5095,44.5356,29.1023,30.5023,37.5721,10.3551,31.4433,34.5687,0.0,16.5522,10.0793,0.0,23.0503,37.754,0.0,0.0,32.2733,57.104,46.6416,16.1452],"supportDates":["2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,-17.1847,-16.927,-12.9126,16.221,9.0616,0.0,0.0,16.6889,0.0,15.9102,0.0,12.406,0.0,17.6223,-19.074,26.3986,0.0,-27.536,-29.9617,-40.9466,-39.1995,15.7859,33.9198,46.0356,27.1095,29.1289,36.6652,5.2115,36.2839,38.1106,0.0,17.6229,8.7201,0.0,27.7496,38.4211,0.0,0.0,42.4015,59.6357,54.9648,17.3945],"force":[-90.9936,-72.7273,47.6842,58.0,0.0,-10.4106,-9.968,-14.7838,17.2822,6.9568,0.0,0.0,11.4899,0.0,12.58,0.0,6.1427,0.0,9.0421,-16.6701,25.0371,0.0,-26.1353,-26.5085,-39.3651,-32.4287,40.4938,46.0901,48.0946,15.345,17.2581,32.7402,8.2557,20.2484,21.8556,0.0,7.1186,2.7633,0.0,17.1466,45.9001,0.0,0.0,28.8485,77.5933,32.5324,18.5425],"direction":[null,null,null,null,0.0,-3.7103,-7.222,-13.4156,3.8575,9.0919,0.0,0.0,10.2087,0.0,14.7729,0.0,4.4272,0.0,7.9248,-3.9354,13.95,0.0,-7.6945,-18.8287,-33.2366,-34.9883,13.355,18.3401,40.2791,41.2064,41.5319,42.06,29.5268,33.9076,39.6015,0.0,22.0668,20.8059,0.0,21.8968,31.1731,0.0,0.0,23.1445,39.5754,47.2072,39.4944],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,50.0,80.0,16.6667,71.4286,87.5,77.7778,20.0,9.0909,33.3333,30.7692,35.7143,100.0,100.0,47.0588,27.7778,36.8421,60.0,19.0476,81.8182,78.2609,83.3333,84.0,84.6154,88.8889,89.2857,58.6207,13.3333,25.8065,28.125,21.2121,41.1765,45.7143,44.4444,45.9459,18.4211,25.641,32.5,39.0244,28.5714,30.2326,81.8182,35.5556,17.3913],"confirmation":[51.7846,45.9394,37.9256,41.2267,24.1502,48.6726,48.9725,72.3853,49.3185,48.0118,1.2689,24.9792,72.0947,48.5213,72.6147,2.792,25.1174,24.1072,49.0229,49.5658,74.9745,1.5693,51.879,76.0319,80.1118,79.3724,30.0944,78.4907,82.337,76.9238,77.378,79.8896,4.586,77.6469,78.6206,29.1896,50.3262,48.7775,26.4694,75.1246,80.3194,28.4976,25.1071,78.0688,86.8591,82.3685,38.7127],"persistence":[null,null,33.3333,0.0,0.0,16.6667,28.5714,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,2.681,1.2794,38.9438,43.1239,8.8425,41.4842,44.5853,45.5015,33.103,16.4401,39.5604,45.2824,9.8533,43.5803,24.6432,12.0358,37.6921,26.0379,37.565,37.0233,31.0723,31.9827,50.9425,32.1808,27.723,35.4453,34.7193,30.8882,28.348,25.3699,28.0604,4.5546,13.2854,6.7166,37.3957,18.0129,26.8704,21.9429,34.5125,23.9491,19.4746,26.6186,41.6608],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":16.1,"control":17.4,"force":18.5,"direction":39.5,"confirmation":38.7,"persistence":75.0,"assessmentRisk":41.7,"intensity":17.4,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+16.1","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+17.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+18.5","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+39.5","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"39/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"64.4","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"0.8%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"44.0","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"95%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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