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Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":56,"displayedObservations":56,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. 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evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":8.2,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":10.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":10.3,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":10.6,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":14.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":12.2,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":12.2,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":9.2,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":5.7,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":9.4,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":11.3,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":11.9,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":9.6,"sample":1},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"dynamicsAhead":{"label":"Price cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":15.6,"averageExpectedMove":15.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":11.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":3.2,"medianReturn":3.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":15.4,"medianReturn":15.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-2.5,"medianReturn":-2.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":12.2,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 12.2% across 1 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 2.4% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 2.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":123.81},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":123.550003}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":123.81},{"date":"2026-08-21","price":121.029999}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[86.64,87.5,87.27,88.91,88.145,88.48,91.26,92.4,92.0,94.705,96.02,94.585,130.37,100.89,98.41,99.395,94.275,97.625,98.065,97.485,96.74,97.035,97.405,102.25,103.79,102.87,103.31,105.61,108.63,111.46,114.58,109.88,105.5,103.4,101.93,105.45,110.38,113.56,112.99,113.17,118.48,118.11,119.42,121.93,121.75,122.05,126.83,123.81,123.9,120.59,116.68,120.77,118.09,122.82,123.55,121.03],"consensus":[-100.0,0.0,26.4984,58.0,0.0,13.4834,16.6918,17.4688,0.0,28.2106,20.0469,0.0,80.6259,-8.304,-12.623,0.0,-30.5794,16.8409,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,40.0579,34.086,13.0378,16.4497,37.3286,34.7479,51.3237,59.7963,-10.2571,-21.1559,-31.958,-29.0754,15.932,44.4157,59.5045,17.6731,30.5604,66.5239,15.6403,47.132,44.7976,17.6131,32.3315,61.8247,25.1901,38.5612,0.0,-34.5221,34.191,-41.7925,49.9758,37.6094,-25.1841],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,22.868,22.2289,23.3364,0.0,31.79,21.7092,0.0,73.1845,-3.8935,-22.7808,0.0,-27.7369,25.2522,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,44.0559,41.2724,10.2347,13.324,45.9197,32.2712,59.0128,58.764,-13.9761,-20.4658,-30.8843,-23.5525,31.762,52.7536,59.9376,6.4583,29.2644,65.7778,5.3726,49.6323,29.1947,6.8334,30.8683,72.8359,35.3881,48.9459,0.0,-32.0286,43.0199,-30.059,48.7659,37.013,-22.1511],"force":[0.0,12.5732,13.6305,13.0366,0.0,30.4184,13.5658,0.0,98.9345,-52.3848,-22.6702,0.0,-38.3894,34.9157,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,59.2423,29.0729,1.5463,8.5568,36.8271,34.2083,43.1416,68.6605,-65.6598,-41.0469,-40.6283,-28.3408,29.0219,44.9658,74.8456,4.1849,13.7795,83.8692,14.5019,35.0624,51.7832,8.9657,9.2862,45.0146,15.1673,17.3105,0.0,-32.4547,72.3359,-77.6404,83.3564,37.2031,-70.1265],"direction":[0.0,3.4083,12.5504,13.9287,0.0,22.5429,22.7764,0.0,76.0528,-18.1417,-6.1625,0.0,-28.2495,5.6826,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,21.7855,29.4538,24.4494,25.6596,27.8685,37.9638,48.3804,54.6446,-33.5665,-7.7368,-26.9922,-35.9119,11.5093,34.4937,48.0516,46.1027,44.0279,54.9872,48.9049,52.8956,57.6399,48.9177,50.4647,61.2476,42.3621,41.8721,0.0,-38.8487,3.1456,-29.5967,27.5151,38.581,-3.4512],"intensity":[75.0,40.0,83.3333,42.8571,25.0,77.7778,70.0,36.3636,100.0,84.6154,64.2857,26.6667,81.25,76.4706,38.8889,36.8421,20.0,57.1429,9.0909,82.6087,79.1667,20.0,30.7692,62.963,82.1429,68.9655,76.6667,83.871,90.625,51.5152,73.5294,71.4286,88.8889,62.1622,65.7895,10.2564,90.0,75.6098,40.4762,88.3721,2.2727,31.1111,80.4348,74.4681,8.3333,71.4286,74.0,76.4706,48.0769,82.6923,73.0769,44.2308],"confirmation":[0.9504,49.4773,73.1637,73.3655,26.0809,77.0401,74.1921,3.0028,94.4717,7.9381,50.8388,24.6362,78.0668,52.3574,24.7075,1.2221,0.4063,1.3128,1.4379,81.3423,78.6452,49.1979,73.071,79.799,79.1406,84.057,87.4207,34.7416,52.7199,78.5072,77.3659,30.3779,82.1027,87.5024,28.7196,77.2877,89.8276,7.3365,82.6763,82.7859,6.9031,77.6661,87.1038,32.5779,79.5337,3.1903,79.0221,57.9735,82.6449,85.028,80.0317,39.992],"persistence":[20.0,33.3333,42.8571,50.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,75.0,87.5,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[44.9476,34.4866,41.5388,41.0906,50.7046,35.8909,39.948,44.2422,9.6482,26.464,15.456,14.7083,34.3219,20.692,4.3649,5.5532,9.4088,2.8742,3.6705,2.5574,7.611,23.9464,41.1111,26.316,30.9495,24.3332,20.1016,52.5737,30.3247,33.7094,35.4486,53.1692,24.1699,20.1216,41.0958,34.1069,16.0582,36.6209,24.7516,27.2331,32.6941,30.6573,18.9458,19.5675,16.1202,29.1554,32.6857,56.3908,27.0757,7.1255,30.2978,16.9034],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-25.2,"control":-22.2,"force":-70.1,"direction":-3.5,"confirmation":40.0,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":16.9,"intensity":44.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-25.2","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-22.2","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-70.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}