{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"EBK Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"91b2c5ad-d2df-491f-837b-9602718d2224","symbol":"EBK","name":"EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Diversified"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":23,"completedEpisodes":21,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":4.0,"averageExpectedMove":5.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":23,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":43.5,"averageReturn":-0.0,"medianReturn":-0.7,"confidenceLow":25.6,"confidenceHigh":63.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":21,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":57.1,"averageReturn":-0.6,"medianReturn":0.3,"confidenceLow":36.5,"confidenceHigh":75.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":-3.5,"medianReturn":-3.5,"confidenceLow":16.3,"confidenceHigh":56.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":23},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":23},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":23},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":23},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":22},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":22},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":22},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":22},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":22},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":21},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":21},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":21},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":21},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":21},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":21},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":21},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":20},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":20},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":19},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":60.9,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":23},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 60.9% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.5% across 23 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.8% across 23 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-02-07","price":59.309677}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[59.6815,59.4956,64.1437,63.9578,62.2845,62.4704,63.5859,63.7719,61.3548,61.5408,61.3548,62.6563,60.0534,58.7519,56.7067,56.5208,56.8927,56.5208,55.7771,55.5912,57.8223,58.0082,59.4956,58.566,59.3097,58.7519,60.0534,58.7519,62.4704,62.8422,64.5155,65.817,63.9578,60.4252,65.4452,65.2592,64.3296,67.6721,67.482,67.8622,67.1018,66.9117,66.1514,65.0108,65.2009,65.3635,67.5098,65.3635,68.0951,70.0463,68.4853,66.3391,66.9244,67.3147,66.144,66.144,66.3391,64.3879,66.3391,66.3391,65.1684,66.5342,65.7537,65.1684,64.9733,65.7537,67.1195,65.3635,65.1684,64.9733,66.3391,65.1684,66.7293,67.3147,66.9244,68.8756,68.2902,67.9,65.3635,64.9733,64.7782,67.3147,67.3147,68.2902,69.2658,66.9244,68.2902,68.0951,67.1195,68.2,70.0,69.2,67.6,70.6,65.8,69.4,67.8,70.8,69.0,68.6,69.4,67.6,67.0,68.0],"consensus":[-43.0511,0.0,52.1612,12.5096,-13.7434,0.0,14.3136,8.6066,-38.2931,0.0,-26.3079,19.1062,-45.2108,-39.3084,-57.2807,-36.7264,-22.2239,-27.7708,-43.1195,-24.9871,27.6838,0.0,38.506,0.0,14.6946,0.0,31.0856,-22.8128,57.5989,40.8778,47.2959,53.7783,-9.1248,-24.3494,46.8778,9.1111,0.0,58.8113,24.3971,32.6925,13.2892,0.0,0.0,-22.7813,0.0,-10.4239,34.7791,-23.2509,44.6316,43.9471,0.0,-22.526,0.0,0.0,-22.739,-14.6397,0.0,-35.8229,19.7267,0.0,-25.6663,15.7561,-8.5611,-22.5026,-13.7708,0.0,26.9292,-22.2522,0.0,-13.6967,21.1571,-24.595,29.5333,17.7254,13.9022,41.1517,0.0,0.0,-42.7236,-26.5809,-26.4181,23.4594,13.0005,29.7943,30.279,-24.2003,27.237,0.0,-19.2353,19.9263,43.3542,0.0,-19.4988,44.6532,-44.772,11.5133,-8.8991,32.4084,0.0,0.0,21.7635,-35.1282,-27.2539,-3.1257],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,0.0,-22.5655,-19.8048,0.0,-35.9639,24.3025,0.0,-30.4,13.786,-8.1182,-24.8133,-15.4943,0.0,30.3174,-29.52,0.0,-14.4794,31.3902,-31.9,25.6406,9.637,17.97,39.575,0.0,0.0,-37.2082,-21.748,-23.2841,26.4108,10.3222,28.8055,23.5391,-18.7871,28.9702,0.0,-19.2913,20.2222,47.8374,0.0,-27.868,49.8248,-41.0519,4.68,-12.3719,44.5338,0.0,0.0,23.0943,-31.6836,-23.769,-5.8323],"force":[0.0,0.0,-30.5967,-16.4316,0.0,-41.2092,41.6995,0.0,-29.7695,24.8899,-8.8487,-26.9312,-13.5385,0.0,35.0802,-33.6882,0.0,-13.3868,34.4041,-36.376,53.0427,21.0661,10.6951,47.4814,0.0,0.0,-80.894,-26.054,-22.9268,44.4762,9.1713,29.168,28.7038,-62.4313,41.069,0.0,-28.1652,26.9816,54.9141,0.0,-32.9199,50.7476,-62.5982,21.6128,-12.3616,27.9193,0.0,0.0,28.0188,-55.3794,-36.874,-13.9384],"direction":[0.0,0.0,-17.3246,-7.457,0.0,-31.8146,1.1975,0.0,-17.3255,11.4835,-8.8619,-16.6984,-11.9669,0.0,17.2347,-5.7778,0.0,-13.0237,0.0002,-7.8315,17.1897,24.5832,11.5441,38.4322,0.0,0.0,-21.7623,-32.4807,-32.4936,5.0744,18.7967,31.3718,39.1069,-3.079,15.3763,0.0,-12.7929,14.5487,29.9735,0.0,-0.3476,34.3896,-36.2905,12.1087,-2.4569,21.7572,0.0,0.0,15.7747,-24.5998,-24.3653,-7.691],"intensity":[34.6154,28.8462,30.7692,3.8462,9.6154,51.9231,51.9231,51.9231,28.8462,38.4615,21.1538,7.6923,25.0,25.0,46.1538,55.7692,88.4615,71.1538,40.3846,28.8462,48.0769,65.3846,90.3846,71.1538,46.1538,19.2308,65.3846,94.2308,3.8462,69.2308,30.7692,21.1538,69.2308,100.0,88.4615,86.5385,23.0769,26.9231,55.7692,25.0,50.0,92.3077,96.1538,96.1538,92.3077,88.4615,57.6923,63.4615,13.4615,51.9231,25.0,26.9231],"confirmation":[1.2772,24.3285,75.5186,49.994,1.9539,79.6253,52.5013,0.3003,76.2661,73.3503,70.7551,75.3006,72.3733,48.1567,76.8141,52.6918,1.7226,72.3616,52.3514,53.4515,78.2264,73.8972,72.289,81.3855,6.012,3.0475,82.9189,76.5635,76.3951,53.4359,72.0843,77.5302,77.744,54.3251,77.111,24.7413,74.4266,74.5869,82.1573,25.5464,51.8545,82.3959,82.927,49.4295,48.2336,78.0491,26.2201,24.9586,75.1347,79.9107,77.0675,25.5959],"persistence":[0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[32.459,46.2348,33.971,1.0108,15.4267,29.5853,4.1039,6.6286,19.8357,38.1993,18.2047,27.037,2.5391,33.6186,28.8373,19.4821,11.0805,22.5958,41.4499,2.6604,29.8018,40.0259,19.5568,29.3181,44.4672,23.5635,20.3539,36.5288,36.5709,32.3316,38.4166,34.474,34.7762,1.5486,15.9854,6.0674,36.4234,26.4951,19.6704,32.553,26.7969,23.4638,26.2695,1.2089,8.9292,11.9745,42.8783,13.6154,19.1567,26.3151,21.1512,14.3787],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-3.1,"control":-5.8,"force":-13.9,"direction":-7.7,"confirmation":25.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":14.4,"intensity":26.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-3.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-5.8","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-13.9","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-7.7","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"26/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.1","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.1%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"9.7","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"64%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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