{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ALO Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"9297d101-78d4-4762-b58f-bb1dbf7cd05a","symbol":"ALO","name":"Alstom SA","exchange":"PAR","country":"FR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Railroads"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned downward","stateTone":"negative","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.0,"sample":21},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":21},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":21},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":21},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":21},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":21},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":21},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":21},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":21},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":21},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":21},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":21},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":21},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":21},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":21},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":21},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":21},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":21},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":21},{"week":24,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":20},{"week":25,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":20},{"week":26,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":20}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":47.6,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":21},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 47.6% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.9% across 21 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 12.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 11.8% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-03-06","price":24.33}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[18.33,18.475,17.27,17.29,17.645,18.93,19.43,19.625,20.51,20.55,19.98,20.2,22.73,21.05,21.29,21.55,22.15,21.92,21.79,21.43,19.785,20.53,19.27,19.115,20.26,20.28,20.09,21.08,24.26,23.88,23.52,20.85,18.33,18.49,19.39,20.73,21.31,22.11,19.205,18.475,19.905,18.9,18.85,18.43,19.94,19.14,20.01,20.82,22.0,19.825,21.18,21.78,21.89,20.54,20.03,20.94,20.94,21.94,22.39,22.3,21.83,21.95,21.65,20.89,23.69,22.48,22.54,23.01,24.29,24.87,24.96,25.69,25.55,26.08,26.78,27.02,28.43,28.7,29.84,28.29,24.33,23.3,23.19,23.6,24.27,23.15,16.64,16.52,17.08,17.305,17.05,16.875,17.14,17.145,16.19,16.235,15.38,16.01,15.67,15.705,16.01,16.19,16.66,16.23],"consensus":[45.4966,28.327,-22.2854,0.0,10.6272,49.9075,46.2845,31.7376,58.7321,40.8241,0.0,24.4161,66.21,-9.8977,35.2544,35.3502,33.8292,12.3887,15.0547,0.0,-53.8881,0.0,-56.643,-27.6562,29.1504,0.0,-10.2201,42.9013,63.1731,30.942,14.2162,-42.5063,-66.0432,-17.8699,-15.7365,22.2278,24.9697,37.161,-47.3248,-38.7694,10.5933,-43.4436,-17.9416,-28.1252,29.3294,-26.0903,25.0755,39.2257,47.4694,-29.5731,40.9081,35.8995,26.2875,-21.2017,-20.6307,19.5913,0.0,40.5547,32.6085,19.7207,0.0,16.1112,-11.833,-34.2298,62.1463,-11.9628,11.3575,35.9956,52.766,50.6169,46.2512,57.3485,15.5066,42.9968,59.6473,37.7407,68.3831,34.625,64.5034,0.0,-62.8383,-55.2528,-41.7122,-19.782,0.0,-41.549,-76.5175,-52.759,-24.9562,-37.5401,-37.9379,-31.8674,-26.9032,-24.4384,-44.8873,-23.374,-53.6663,-15.392,-37.6717,-18.8773,0.0,-11.0109,14.767,-14.1618],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[36.542,-31.3386,-18.0759,27.9615,0.0,40.5964,27.2716,15.0235,0.0,21.7348,-12.0586,-34.2187,56.1883,-18.3746,5.4117,32.5245,59.1373,51.4021,52.3681,64.2202,3.0408,41.9392,63.8653,33.7913,70.6055,24.7202,69.0998,0.0,-55.6297,-55.3313,-40.2052,-9.2672,0.0,-41.996,-70.306,-53.1476,-11.1854,-32.0528,-46.8905,-37.8376,-33.7068,-24.8947,-49.5718,-18.2273,-60.3775,-5.2925,-45.765,-15.453,0.0,-17.369,9.1331,-23.1767],"force":[14.0083,-45.6239,-23.2818,36.3151,0.0,47.5661,25.6105,4.3303,0.0,10.6514,-23.638,-46.2612,90.4875,-48.7797,1.9089,39.2694,60.0673,43.7572,24.2624,43.7782,14.073,32.3239,55.7873,23.5608,73.5471,13.7016,57.2168,0.0,-95.7545,-53.8052,-22.216,-8.9053,0.0,-52.1438,-94.2606,-24.9726,-17.024,-3.041,-15.4244,-6.9639,-5.1276,-0.8529,-27.1111,-3.0814,-35.367,-14.7698,-17.4295,-4.2722,0.0,-4.6954,31.6119,-14.7648],"direction":[23.339,-7.8276,-21.6568,1.9201,0.0,35.4989,43.7065,36.082,0.0,13.5841,-3.1431,-25.6487,48.7117,-21.6629,24.9016,37.624,40.2692,54.6192,54.9666,59.1883,50.8815,51.8291,57.5837,52.3828,62.1546,60.8901,64.4551,0.0,-47.565,-56.1972,-57.3603,-52.2899,0.0,-33.4703,-70.9428,-72.1622,-70.6801,-68.4535,-43.7875,-42.8325,-42.0066,-41.9823,-52.2308,-48.1526,-59.0674,-48.4784,-42.8808,-39.3262,0.0,-14.9632,9.1738,-3.4284],"intensity":[1.9231,63.4615,51.9231,34.6154,28.8462,40.3846,28.8462,3.8462,17.3077,19.2308,5.7692,25.0,90.3846,55.7692,19.2308,40.3846,78.8462,50.0,19.2308,23.0769,63.4615,17.3077,21.1538,57.6923,71.1538,80.7692,53.8462,75.0,100.0,94.2308,5.7692,11.5385,38.4615,55.7692,100.0,98.0769,21.1538,28.8462,7.6923,13.4615,11.5385,11.5385,55.7692,1.9231,46.1538,32.6923,15.3846,32.6923,13.4615,40.3846,28.8462,30.7692],"confirmation":[75.8815,54.3776,74.7215,52.3943,24.1492,81.1905,78.3028,51.2465,4.4789,72.9035,49.4762,79.3204,88.8413,32.1405,26.1037,79.6712,85.0105,83.9764,82.037,85.8332,7.2528,81.4498,86.9052,79.705,90.0061,78.5933,88.349,34.4634,89.2213,85.6356,80.7767,30.1827,5.2143,81.6117,93.121,84.0301,33.2149,56.3784,79.3176,54.681,53.9564,52.5579,81.7508,52.7425,84.5133,7.311,79.3147,51.6321,4.7844,49.2829,73.3247,35.8172],"persistence":[50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[18.246,39.2439,29.2851,42.1825,33.6753,23.4217,32.805,34.1388,34.6609,7.5192,33.2664,31.6475,16.6938,29.2954,30.5842,30.851,0.961,23.944,26.2399,20.9392,35.3725,21.3108,18.0631,25.7087,15.6437,32.6626,17.7481,48.0064,18.3215,22.3374,29.1386,40.0098,1.8863,15.3629,11.5117,23.4927,37.4016,30.8796,28.8308,24.8046,14.9513,7.7748,0.1546,5.4021,11.0378,20.5259,4.5634,31.8862,43.6289,25.162,41.3971,47.8641],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-14.2,"control":-23.2,"force":-14.8,"direction":-3.4,"confirmation":35.8,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":47.9,"intensity":30.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-14.2","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-23.2","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-14.8","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-3.4","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"36/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"36.3","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"7.6%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"34.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"10%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned downward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[18.33,18.475,17.27,17.29,17.645,18.93,19.43,19.625,20.51,20.55,19.98,20.2,22.73,21.05,21.29,21.55,22.15,21.92,21.79,21.43,19.785,20.53,19.27,19.115,20.26,20.28,20.09,21.08,24.26,23.88,23.52,20.85,18.33,18.49,19.39,20.73,21.31,22.11,19.205,18.475,19.905,18.9,18.85,18.43,19.94,19.14,20.01,20.82,22.0,19.825,21.18,21.78,21.89,20.54,20.03,20.94,20.94,21.94,22.39,22.3,21.83,21.95,21.65,20.89,23.69,22.48,22.54,23.01,24.29,24.87,24.96,25.69,25.55,26.08,26.78,27.02,28.43,28.7,29.84,28.29,24.33,23.3,23.19,23.6,24.27,23.15,16.64,16.52,17.08,17.305,17.05,16.875,17.14,17.145,16.19,16.235,15.38,16.01,15.67,15.705,16.01,16.19,16.66,16.23],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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