{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HUBG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"948a6855-2c26-4fdb-871b-ac17b4983f63","symbol":"HUBG","name":"Hub Group Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Integrated Freight & Logistics"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has not yet established a clear direction.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":18,"activeEpisodes":3,"medianExpectedMove":9.1,"averageExpectedMove":11.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":20,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":0.9,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":78.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":18,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":61.1,"averageReturn":1.8,"medianReturn":3.4,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":79.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":0.8,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":29.0,"confidenceHigh":71.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":20},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":20},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":20},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":18},{"week":13,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":18},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":18},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":18},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":18},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":18},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":18},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":18},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":18},{"week":21,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":18},{"week":22,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":6.5,"sample":18},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":18},{"week":25,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-21.3,"medianReturn":-21.3,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-21.3,"sample":1},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Support weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics has weakened over four weeks","use":"Use the weaker four-week path as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","confirm":"Treat the weaker support as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 80.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 11.1% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-07-04","price":35.296863},{"date":"2025-07-25","price":35.632459},{"date":"2025-08-08","price":34.132145},{"date":"2025-10-17","price":36.162313}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-06","price":48.798774}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":51.22}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[42.593,45.9467,43.3973,43.7786,44.6389,44.1697,41.4518,42.537,43.28,42.3806,42.2828,47.2883,48.5495,49.8693,50.4852,48.7988,48.1421,42.2126,43.3299,44.0257,42.2322,43.9375,44.3198,43.7219,40.6248,42.1047,42.2714,40.2818,38.5764,36.3418,36.847,36.5126,32.825,32.6873,31.7629,31.6154,32.3333,32.6775,35.3621,32.766,33.1495,33.1298,32.353,32.3923,33.6287,35.2969,35.1883,33.4313,35.6325,33.1648,34.1321,35.0304,36.9946,36.9354,36.9452,35.6473,35.3006,34.32,33.8347,32.8046,36.1623,35.2808,36.4793,35.3501,35.2015,36.5684,38.2027,41.0107,42.491,43.5242,43.6732,42.4711,46.1668,46.5642,47.1206,47.2696,41.6863,39.4013,42.9877,42.789,38.7853,34.2004,34.7239,35.2773,36.394,38.8569,42.5361,42.7754,43.0546,42.7555,37.2416,41.3396,41.4194,42.93,46.38,44.35,43.75,44.94,46.2,51.22,49.28,46.53,47.8,40.3],"consensus":[0.0,62.8409,-16.184,19.2115,27.4509,-9.1084,-47.7137,11.2918,0.0,-18.3518,0.0,61.5205,43.7208,61.1712,37.1802,0.0,0.0,-63.8783,-10.4137,-8.0077,-49.3776,16.8803,0.0,-20.4388,-58.6293,0.0,0.0,-53.2387,-52.6583,-64.3088,-24.8174,-50.2895,-66.7611,-36.5248,-49.8534,-39.1334,-12.1376,-10.5706,23.5059,-40.0961,-14.5008,-9.1048,-37.3101,-19.383,20.3122,37.53,15.9157,-24.594,42.5043,-40.4968,9.2344,22.8523,46.6897,28.8535,26.8555,-11.2087,-15.8771,-29.6775,-25.6131,-41.0808,46.1119,0.0,36.7167,0.0,0.0,34.6383,45.4312,71.1846,58.3203,57.8597,43.7954,11.8491,76.4754,43.7276,45.2947,37.1373,-46.7068,-47.0163,22.8801,0.0,-55.6783,-67.5903,-27.388,-32.0289,-13.1299,28.6462,54.0397,25.5705,27.0268,23.6888,-55.328,32.4213,0.0,25.2458,59.0894,0.0,9.4743,32.7401,28.9722,73.4609,16.1221,-9.5241,29.4777,59.0992],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[48.5561,24.8075,21.7817,-18.5093,-14.5665,-28.4144,-21.6265,-38.2114,44.6815,0.0,32.7034,0.0,0.0,33.4432,47.7029,74.7988,53.5332,53.6331,41.3078,2.4699,79.9419,39.7811,42.3912,29.5841,-40.3619,-33.6772,33.6568,0.0,-52.6364,-69.8401,-19.121,-27.8818,-5.5624,27.3806,53.5714,19.2687,21.9726,20.8073,-46.6298,40.4125,0.0,28.713,60.0613,0.0,4.9083,34.2705,35.3279,73.8288,7.335,-14.7098,29.4078,48.546],"force":[53.876,11.0243,13.1441,-36.1748,-30.5544,-40.6646,-26.0754,-50.5972,79.5265,0.0,46.6849,0.0,0.0,47.6775,47.3449,80.0961,57.7413,52.9492,17.1139,26.3144,85.8587,20.8245,23.3064,10.7885,-89.2036,-76.0792,52.6221,0.0,-83.2374,-77.1375,-3.3917,-5.4834,-12.5356,55.278,73.3556,13.4858,13.9387,11.395,-89.4395,63.2285,0.0,29.3999,67.471,0.0,6.7228,32.1393,22.692,91.5649,20.8139,-46.8817,29.7627,91.496],"direction":[39.4236,46.2127,42.448,-14.9678,-6.8912,-23.2729,-29.8388,-37.5626,23.879,0.0,34.1832,0.0,0.0,26.6904,41.4681,60.6886,64.2047,66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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+59.1","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+48.5","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+91.5","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+48.0","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"88/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"45.2","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"10.7%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"17.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"40%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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