{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MTX Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"95653fec-ad61-49c4-ae5f-f1bfe1f048b9","symbol":"MTX","name":"Minerals Technologies Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Basic Materials","industry":"Specialty Chemicals"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":4.4,"averageExpectedMove":8.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":-0.2,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":46.7,"averageReturn":0.2,"medianReturn":-1.3,"confidenceLow":24.8,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":57.1,"averageReturn":5.6,"medianReturn":2.7,"confidenceLow":32.6,"confidenceHigh":78.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":6.2,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":61.1,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":18},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 61.1% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -3.5% across 18 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 10.9% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[75.9044,76.1711,71.014,71.9328,72.1699,74.7781,75.114,76.0526,79.0757,75.5388,74.6895,81.6152,79.8145,82.5057,80.705,78.8449,78.2711,74.8181,76.0548,74.363,71.187,75.3524,75.105,75.8768,73.0867,70.9595,69.3344,68.1155,67.1841,66.8075,64.5383,63.0321,55.2634,55.7687,56.1948,52.4987,52.5284,55.4913,58.8406,57.6118,56.3732,57.3462,53.7223,52.9082,55.1123,58.6766,58.756,56.6015,64.9811,56.0753,57.5646,60.4041,63.4576,65.0988,63.766,63.2289,62.5823,61.8563,62.3934,57.7584,58.9519,59.3896,56.5681,55.7208,57.0366,58.6015,58.462,58.9803,61.7414,60.3559,61.9408,60.954,66.0376,66.9048,68.8486,65.5492,72.5367,72.8557,71.997,70.5094,67.2645,68.2928,65.1578,70.4095,69.1914,72.9056,72.646,71.7374,75.841,79.3854,76.1605,76.6697,76.8993,75.83,78.12,78.67,79.8,74.46,72.3411,74.787,74.4775,76.1148,75.1664,72.98],"consensus":[8.6442,0.0,-48.8942,-9.6279,-19.5032,12.7089,10.1405,25.6536,48.8427,-26.4502,-15.8963,57.5823,0.0,50.5741,0.0,-21.2515,-13.1379,-50.6433,0.0,-37.1724,-55.1564,23.6262,-13.4658,0.0,-30.2201,-51.9748,-51.3696,-48.3867,-42.604,-31.4461,-62.236,-54.0111,-80.9397,-30.8129,-34.8796,-71.4204,-27.5848,8.183,21.6638,-18.1906,-26.8513,0.0,-53.6028,-44.5626,0.0,36.7049,19.8707,-14.9053,70.3304,-48.4359,9.9758,35.0253,40.0153,48.1719,19.5752,16.8743,0.0,0.0,10.3562,-51.5041,-10.0657,-9.2158,-41.7568,-28.803,0.0,10.0897,0.0,15.125,44.9933,0.0,36.5441,0.0,62.9129,41.5584,60.0578,0.0,71.196,34.7753,25.1902,17.8094,-31.0835,12.9718,-49.1308,44.7962,0.0,51.8807,25.5992,10.5448,57.96,64.0207,-8.4063,31.4937,11.9222,0.0,39.8489,26.9116,44.4682,-38.4328,-37.8579,0.0,-9.7621,19.3196,0.0,-28.8122],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[52.4587,47.1137,11.0429,11.2356,0.0,0.0,15.4213,-52.7455,-7.0034,-5.434,-36.4911,-29.7363,0.0,14.6378,0.0,11.9115,43.0166,0.0,37.5203,0.0,65.6386,38.2599,64.5351,0.0,69.139,26.6551,20.7815,11.1779,-26.4245,23.576,-40.7308,48.9958,0.0,51.3806,20.3685,10.2701,55.8133,60.4785,-14.9418,29.4411,6.968,0.0,44.6912,27.2665,45.2194,-36.9937,-33.5823,0.0,-1.3398,13.2862,0.0,-29.0672],"force":[39.1934,38.2315,6.8491,1.5884,0.0,0.0,6.819,-70.1892,-7.2547,-2.6731,-51.4896,-18.3102,0.0,27.7913,0.0,20.7174,58.0773,0.0,36.2823,0.0,71.8925,24.0136,50.6945,0.0,86.6049,9.9946,6.5489,13.9668,-65.7754,21.2164,-86.4476,71.5823,0.0,63.6249,8.1133,8.4692,71.2792,79.4499,-64.8897,20.3933,4.4821,0.0,40.2004,15.9989,50.1859,-74.3113,-43.3082,0.0,-7.251,41.1936,0.0,-35.3792],"direction":[26.3815,56.4816,48.201,36.5061,0.0,0.0,7.0941,-36.7387,-25.9371,-18.2112,-40.8228,-35.2312,0.0,7.7521,0.0,14.8032,37.9066,0.0,35.6155,0.0,53.3837,57.8602,61.6289,0.0,62.5405,61.7562,52.8997,48.0855,-11.628,5.0364,-32.076,20.8636,0.0,44.0637,44.0671,24.4402,50.8997,57.0481,-39.4081,41.7685,29.3015,0.0,34.0639,34.3009,39.5255,-14.4499,-38.8512,0.0,-24.2436,10.5907,0.0,-23.83],"intensity":[59.6154,59.6154,13.4615,15.3846,5.7692,46.1538,1.9231,78.8462,36.5385,17.3077,61.5385,48.0769,13.4615,21.1538,3.8462,1.9231,57.6923,25.0,28.8462,9.6154,86.5385,80.7692,40.3846,69.2308,92.3077,92.3077,25.0,34.6154,63.4615,57.6923,59.6154,84.6154,73.0769,73.0769,69.2308,26.9231,76.9231,90.3846,63.4615,90.3846,53.8462,30.7692,38.4615,11.5385,13.4615,86.5385,71.1538,42.3077,15.3846,88.4615,50.0,40.3846],"confirmation":[80.5902,83.1282,52.3833,50.5952,4.7947,24.9039,25.7957,85.0318,26.9542,25.474,81.739,76.8829,4.4437,50.686,1.2414,73.0594,82.8267,29.4897,79.6713,4.1749,88.3643,80.8143,86.8649,35.4492,91.2837,78.4966,53.8912,30.4779,79.075,50.6484,84.9871,83.0871,29.2204,84.9674,75.7385,27.2725,86.9858,89.0108,35.3856,77.771,27.0135,25.7885,80.6886,76.2737,82.3926,81.4139,80.3458,29.6366,26.169,74.9409,25.0895,77.4161],"persistence":[50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[38.3012,24.8867,35.9525,22.9974,9.3749,31.7399,22.8865,18.4135,31.5239,28.4135,28.7464,23.4998,35.2301,26.0776,40.0315,40.4864,26.8736,39.7846,29.0652,36.954,17.3946,29.1106,19.886,52.1998,13.7706,31.6255,28.9909,38.5977,31.8033,52.5064,24.4134,23.9321,29.1447,19.0421,36.3564,14.7579,19.6496,17.1887,46.2527,31.2013,12.0685,41.1207,11.3502,20.4202,21.8088,4.7902,30.079,49.0312,43.5277,20.5056,44.1616,20.8889],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-28.8,"control":-29.1,"force":-35.4,"direction":-23.8,"confirmation":77.4,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":20.9,"intensity":40.4,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-28.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-29.1","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-35.4","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-23.8","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"77/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"49.9","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.5%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"22.4","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"42%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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