{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"NOV Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"99663662-e62d-4669-8f9e-ac0c78084f2f","symbol":"NOV","name":"Novo Nordisk A/S","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Drug Manufacturers - General"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":16.0,"averageExpectedMove":17.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":68.8,"averageReturn":3.9,"medianReturn":3.6,"confidenceLow":44.4,"confidenceHigh":85.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":80.0,"averageReturn":12.6,"medianReturn":13.7,"confidenceLow":54.8,"confidenceHigh":93.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":80.0,"averageReturn":19.7,"medianReturn":20.5,"confidenceLow":54.8,"confidenceHigh":93.0,"confidence":"Historically 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":21.4,"averageExpectedMove":21.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.0,"medianReturn":-9.0,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-17.9,"medianReturn":-17.9,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-36.7,"medianReturn":-36.7,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-12.1,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-14.6,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-13.3,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-15.1,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-16.8,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-18.0,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-17.9,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-17.9,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-26.1,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-22.6,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-24.2,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-33.0,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-34.0,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-31.2,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-32.3,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-34.5,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-35.5,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-32.4,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-30.7,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-36.8,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-36.7,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":55.0,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 55.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.6% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.8 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 11.3% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-08-08","price":29.794962},{"date":"2025-11-14","price":31.509436},{"date":"2026-02-13","price":31.291662},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":36.209999}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-06","price":71.450478},{"date":"2024-09-20","price":68.664337}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":73.50087},{"date":"2024-09-13","price":74.562256}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[73.5009,75.5875,71.4505,74.5623,68.6643,64.8651,62.9353,66.0712,65.3475,63.5142,62.2357,60.3542,58.2073,60.909,61.1261,63.4177,60.6436,48.1844,51.1213,51.5616,51.0188,46.52,50.2831,49.2217,50.4821,45.2475,50.8982,52.1164,48.3593,42.769,42.9861,43.6769,39.7998,38.599,35.6002,37.302,41.7418,40.6576,39.1205,40.7125,42.7642,44.9807,47.698,43.6563,40.3076,41.7486,40.3282,38.05,41.5634,28.5804,29.795,32.8499,36.5295,35.9738,35.3242,35.0389,38.9888,35.3843,38.0276,37.179,34.6446,34.4907,31.975,29.4819,31.5094,30.8599,31.8323,31.1189,32.3505,31.1077,33.353,33.3004,38.0877,39.7397,40.3555,37.3442,29.6959,31.2917,30.2403,24.0301,25.0101,24.8261,23.8048,30.465,31.555,32.11,34.81,34.62,36.21,38.68,38.47,38.66,39.18,37.86,38.35,39.135,42.21,43.6,39.081,39.9916,38.9632,37.0603,36.8882,39.395],"consensus":[0.0,36.6486,-32.0158,26.4946,-54.0135,-64.8758,-49.8285,0.0,-32.8721,-43.6477,-29.6065,-48.0841,-58.4047,0.0,-18.6466,21.6865,-32.59,-69.8337,-21.1339,-24.5339,-30.4765,-67.0127,0.0,-37.5259,0.0,-62.1682,29.0049,8.4169,-43.4523,-58.6121,-36.0892,-15.6314,-61.5282,-38.0756,-61.8054,-13.4422,23.8204,-17.2798,-16.7136,8.0321,22.7766,40.8612,48.884,-17.4682,-41.2695,0.0,-35.341,-50.9152,29.3815,-70.9802,-17.8408,0.0,16.0792,0.0,-13.9797,0.0,45.4547,-34.9972,39.308,0.0,-39.8218,-18.3797,-50.4852,-64.2952,0.0,-33.9542,0.0,-11.9617,14.3998,-20.2649,29.283,8.687,65.1568,60.6424,49.3644,0.0,-60.4313,-19.4241,-42.4669,-76.4348,-19.2319,-42.8186,-49.6724,45.7432,29.0018,26.9726,55.916,32.6425,50.9434,51.3069,18.8733,37.8045,37.8049,11.1675,30.0619,28.5137,55.192,38.1136,0.0,25.342,-12.7594,-37.7877,-13.0536,-26.4228],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[22.2538,0.0,-30.7114,0.0,40.0679,-40.6926,34.5208,0.0,-40.7981,-23.5933,-50.4538,-63.5392,0.0,-35.9204,0.0,-19.4313,15.6174,-26.3584,29.2076,2.9685,58.9805,59.8007,47.8415,0.0,-52.3556,-16.6399,-45.772,-77.9351,-10.3294,-44.0768,-51.1885,42.4895,25.7259,22.5693,55.8662,31.3966,53.0459,39.0763,5.0712,35.7245,36.6387,14.0215,39.7072,31.8225,61.6232,28.9511,0.0,26.129,-7.3419,-30.6873,-6.23,-32.9602],"force":[61.7393,0.0,-14.0066,0.0,78.7733,-59.9266,69.7772,0.0,-54.859,-12.6261,-61.1674,-83.3127,0.0,-23.663,0.0,-3.5963,34.6606,-20.6851,49.6362,4.5805,89.8496,62.2352,36.2171,0.0,-92.8205,-5.0852,-33.198,-96.0062,-18.0985,-19.3624,-33.5584,82.649,28.9557,18.9865,60.8499,13.759,42.7934,57.0055,10.9358,15.6466,17.3544,12.8147,14.5003,11.7541,40.3652,15.6776,0.0,22.9284,-27.3827,-56.9747,-5.4721,-44.1987],"direction":[23.5919,0.0,-5.1615,0.0,27.8119,-10.6814,23.0155,0.0,-27.9651,-16.5311,-42.8911,-51.5752,0.0,-39.0579,0.0,-9.4003,1.4637,-13.0007,14.831,18.1556,54.5777,60.4665,60.4958,0.0,-46.5255,-40.1127,-45.3104,-60.7407,-56.0708,-58.1351,-59.4496,23.1004,32.7787,37.7092,52.4486,47.5547,54.362,61.2141,55.9394,56.0088,53.745,25.0361,30.154,36.7034,58.4326,64.6107,0.0,26.1667,-8.5057,-32.1974,-26.2673,-6.2545],"intensity":[78.8462,3.8462,3.8462,19.2308,78.8462,59.6154,38.4615,50.0,46.1538,7.6923,36.5385,32.6923,23.0769,5.7692,61.5385,57.6923,7.6923,9.6154,36.5385,36.5385,92.3077,51.9231,15.3846,59.6154,96.1538,90.3846,5.7692,92.3077,84.6154,17.3077,11.5385,94.2308,94.2308,1.9231,51.9231,9.6154,26.9231,84.6154,7.6923,32.6923,1.9231,30.7692,1.9231,17.3077,69.2308,50.0,82.6923,40.3846,13.4615,44.2308,75.0,63.4615],"confirmation":[34.1424,3.3057,50.6538,1.5011,83.643,79.8721,81.5801,28.2108,81.1864,73.6267,84.4813,89.1656,7.3371,78.5217,5.6521,48.7923,50.8524,74.4047,77.992,25.4085,89.6968,87.4669,83.4191,33.3052,88.4482,51.9294,81.2566,93.0327,31.6799,80.9679,83.381,83.8121,77.3291,76.4549,86.0442,77.8891,84.0215,84.7782,7.6743,79.4539,79.4921,28.1997,76.9986,76.5632,85.1116,79.6522,4.1989,76.0239,49.9446,80.785,26.7167,39.0461],"persistence":[25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[48.6184,49.1591,49.7985,24.8146,3.1067,10.7104,7.875,26.1323,18.0598,1.2184,24.1491,17.659,40.6611,29.8949,5.7237,38.0934,11.1252,16.8298,20.2189,39.7994,17.0272,19.6634,25.2386,50.2595,19.4918,40.0185,28.6807,11.7529,34.8408,26.7091,23.2546,24.0327,32.5316,35.0042,21.8409,24.9772,18.0361,23.4812,33.9308,26.1588,26.9462,24.9611,18.0531,1.9797,21.7217,30.9348,16.0093,9.462,40.7918,31.0084,35.878,28.4864],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-26.4,"control":-33.0,"force":-44.2,"direction":-6.3,"confirmation":39.0,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":28.5,"intensity":63.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-26.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-33.0","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-44.2","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction 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