{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"REFI Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"99e93987-bbec-443d-aed8-b8e5dd4045c7","symbol":"REFI","name":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Reit - Mortgage"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":21,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.3,"averageExpectedMove":5.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":14,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":0.3,"medianReturn":1.4,"confidenceLow":45.4,"confidenceHigh":82.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":21,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-1.1,"medianReturn":-0.2,"confidenceLow":24.5,"confidenceHigh":63.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":20,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":1.4,"medianReturn":2.4,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":78.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":13.3,"averageExpectedMove":13.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.6,"medianReturn":-4.6,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.3,"medianReturn":-5.3,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-6.4,"medianReturn":-6.4,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-8.3,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-8.3,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-12.9,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-6.5,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":26.3,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":19},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 26.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.4% across 19 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 5.0% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-03-14","price":12.801113}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-02-14","price":13.378041},{"date":"2025-02-28","price":13.461654}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[12.3893,12.3815,12.2024,12.3893,12.2725,12.4983,12.3716,12.4759,12.516,12.2111,12.0587,12.6925,12.6043,12.877,12.9252,12.8449,12.9573,12.8209,12.9813,13.052,12.6841,13.0938,12.7175,12.8513,13.0269,13.378,13.0018,13.4617,13.5035,12.8011,12.868,12.7928,12.2785,11.64,12.0024,12.2871,12.7617,12.917,12.9774,12.5115,12.5633,12.3907,12.0455,12.2267,12.5029,12.7097,12.3976,11.8713,12.0051,11.5057,12.237,12.4243,12.8614,12.7008,12.8435,11.8,12.0051,11.8535,11.7065,11.2165,12.2244,12.1874,11.8915,11.7343,11.7343,11.4754,11.799,11.7898,12.4555,12.0117,12.1411,11.7713,11.8865,12.0497,11.9345,11.9057,11.6176,11.4832,11.4736,11.6656,11.7809,11.608,11.8481,10.9648,11.01,11.51,12.11,12.15,11.5056,11.4577,10.7871,10.8254,10.8924,10.8062,10.8924,10.9691,10.9308,10.68,10.82,10.62,10.17,9.76,10.27,10.15],"consensus":[35.4008,14.2268,0.0,35.0659,-12.6948,38.0483,0.0,23.4204,12.2049,-36.7918,-37.9047,53.1356,13.6582,53.8813,33.7543,8.4977,40.2663,0.0,35.7291,33.8814,-39.3365,53.5881,-39.6333,15.6726,39.0113,58.1655,-21.6568,62.4538,33.6546,-52.2704,-11.8558,-29.8733,-65.9826,-65.6893,-10.0303,0.0,40.4403,33.0536,25.1344,-26.9469,-8.8854,-30.1546,-53.2954,-11.3788,18.487,27.5575,-20.8403,-56.9337,-16.5529,-66.0802,29.5641,24.0739,57.0433,11.9486,35.4846,-59.832,-8.5829,-34.8925,-38.4614,-64.6746,45.2675,8.4041,-20.6331,-16.4922,-20.1705,-34.4797,13.5762,0.0,55.4347,-16.2536,20.3623,-34.363,0.0,13.7876,-9.8625,0.0,-36.9458,-27.7938,-13.3951,0.0,13.1764,-15.7739,26.9587,-65.1044,-26.5801,22.5136,53.1264,34.5964,-22.2203,-9.624,-60.4209,-27.916,-24.675,-28.0665,0.0,0.0,0.0,-39.2395,0.0,-42.1521,-58.1214,-64.1454,0.0,-38.9596],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[60.0636,1.0621,33.2265,-53.6343,-2.6217,-30.8179,-30.5192,-68.1547,44.1383,5.0926,-28.8422,-27.9652,-17.404,-27.3875,21.1742,0.0,54.2601,-21.288,18.9483,-34.1803,0.0,14.3152,-8.3616,0.0,-38.2989,-21.1731,-3.8935,0.0,12.5991,-21.3723,16.2784,-59.6782,-22.164,29.23,54.4938,31.7597,-32.5629,-9.3718,-58.3584,-22.6908,-22.0212,-22.5159,0.0,0.0,0.0,-44.5528,0.0,-46.3298,-58.9494,-68.6065,0.0,-38.7604],"force":[67.2559,10.6301,29.4384,-93.9023,-20.4411,-32.0303,-40.3623,-75.1057,90.367,3.106,-30.9251,-18.4677,-12.3186,-37.4341,33.464,0.0,74.677,-57.5136,20.9045,-69.0161,0.0,20.9866,-16.1925,0.0,-50.3905,-25.7549,-0.7535,0.0,23.9123,-21.9722,55.8704,-95.8526,-5.0054,54.048,78.5198,24.8151,-44.6196,-7.7574,-77.5284,-6.9129,-5.146,-15.579,0.0,0.0,0.0,-45.1377,0.0,-44.8999,-63.7813,-63.1127,0.0,-35.1048],"direction":[46.2969,40.5178,42.3841,-42.5791,-36.127,-41.5936,-46.1803,-53.2466,14.3439,15.9732,-3.8997,-1.9692,-28.9407,-40.4748,9.3126,0.0,43.0324,-18.9716,21.5912,-9.8195,0.0,8.0424,-7.0564,0.0,-25.7961,-36.8167,-34.3601,0.0,6.1677,-4.9484,18.5136,-49.3428,-47.0375,7.6869,33.4255,44.8249,-5.5993,-11.2454,-50.5585,-48.8898,-41.6573,-43.3298,0.0,0.0,0.0,-28.9543,0.0,-35.415,-53.1323,-59.7845,0.0,-41.9407],"intensity":[75.0,17.3077,11.5385,98.0769,90.3846,25.0,46.1538,78.8462,96.1538,94.2308,38.4615,17.3077,7.6923,84.6154,48.0769,19.2308,84.6154,65.3846,21.1538,48.0769,26.9231,46.1538,9.6154,15.3846,36.5385,51.9231,11.5385,50.0,23.0769,11.5385,38.4615,94.2308,82.6923,76.9231,80.7692,44.2308,80.7692,51.9231,88.4615,67.3077,5.7692,26.9231,23.0769,26.9231,1.9231,34.6154,9.6154,26.9231,75.0,63.4615,75.0,30.7692],"confirmation":[86.5191,5.5691,79.2052,88.279,6.3136,79.1404,80.4866,88.9608,83.8773,25.245,52.1245,50.4962,74.2574,79.2316,29.4881,1.0657,86.3434,33.0958,74.554,80.055,27.3136,72.6234,48.7051,1.7036,80.2118,76.9328,26.8274,28.4591,49.8858,50.4846,77.6707,89.8532,53.2487,55.0363,85.7535,78.816,54.1634,48.36,87.8875,53.706,52.6746,76.6853,26.8215,4.1779,24.8653,80.6554,28.5433,81.5088,86.7587,88.4271,35.382,88.3526],"persistence":[0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[20.6121,43.8839,28.8692,14.0615,43.4354,30.3217,30.1854,10.6196,2.6727,24.2005,27.8479,48.5573,29.3191,28.9925,16.8418,5.8615,19.7317,51.1608,23.818,15.001,45.599,0.4442,25.3537,19.4993,17.9049,34.0539,39.5242,37.8454,19.8623,35.3698,34.81,16.6409,36.2931,26.2752,4.7833,32.5782,53.5568,1.8784,19.5886,35.8409,32.4545,31.6762,15.9278,14.4409,9.3292,2.1752,13.3383,22.8146,20.6133,17.8829,51.604,28.4892],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-39.0,"control":-38.8,"force":-35.1,"direction":-41.9,"confirmation":88.4,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":28.5,"intensity":30.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-39.0","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-38.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-35.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-41.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"88/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"37.8","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.0%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"29.1","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"18%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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leadership","title":"Strength versus the research benchmark","description":"Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.","reason":"Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.","series":[{"label":"Relative 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