{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"STZB34 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"9d37b394-bd7a-4b58-8850-47bb0e8f2c7b","symbol":"STZB34","name":"Constellation Brands, Inc.","exchange":"SAO","country":"BR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"BRL","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Beverages - Brewers"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":21,"completedEpisodes":21,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":5.7,"averageExpectedMove":6.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":21,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-2.8,"medianReturn":-1.9,"confidenceLow":24.5,"confidenceHigh":63.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":21,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-3.5,"medianReturn":-6.1,"confidenceLow":24.5,"confidenceHigh":63.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":20,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":35.0,"averageReturn":-8.2,"medianReturn":-5.7,"confidenceLow":18.1,"confidenceHigh":56.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":32.8,"averageExpectedMove":32.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":11.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.6,"medianReturn":-0.6,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-31.2,"medianReturn":-31.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-25.2,"medianReturn":-25.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-23.5,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-24.5,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-28.0,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-30.2,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-31.2,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-31.6,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-27.5,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-26.9,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-25.9,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-25.6,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-28.2,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-24.8,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-25.9,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-25.0,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-24.7,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-25.5,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-24.0,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-25.0,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-25.2,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is weak, but a negative price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":40.0,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 40.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.8% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.8 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.7% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-12-12","price":197.174164}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-11-15","price":342.166412},{"date":"2024-11-29","price":351.433075}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[328.8953,323.6866,335.8145,338.2304,332.1809,334.6355,322.6718,325.6096,328.8953,330.2771,327.581,328.5088,342.1664,338.58,351.4331,348.5445,353.139,337.0872,335.8659,330.5541,269.4681,267.0642,260.6475,256.5666,238.3316,227.2077,238.7306,247.4409,264.6767,259.4213,248.6672,256.8325,249.4944,264.6085,264.6085,255.0418,257.3045,261.7597,269.5562,258.5942,248.6483,234.4817,223.2265,215.9185,215.3714,230.1047,233.0162,231.746,238.4678,225.5909,228.2979,222.4326,220.6867,213.6247,199.285,183.4152,173.0184,174.6073,185.063,191.2618,185.0531,184.1214,173.2668,167.2628,166.7502,177.4962,177.8117,190.5984,197.1742,186.2113,187.907,187.6999,195.37,210.6806,206.0864,204.0868,212.9451,192.8927,201.0483,200.5237,190.1511,198.1978,197.3565,197.9405,193.2194,205.3537,200.8009,191.0221,193.3023,180.0959,179.191,187.3953,177.0231,180.9114,185.2572,182.1644,188.9565,177.9081,170.2309,169.8829,164.5228,164.22,172.72,181.01],"consensus":[8.697,-36.4366,50.0668,16.5801,0.0,0.0,-47.5732,0.0,0.0,12.5789,-13.3249,0.0,52.1037,8.6004,57.9959,18.0911,37.6728,-38.7831,-19.9534,-40.9752,-79.2618,-59.3115,-64.2236,-69.8168,-79.0231,-82.955,0.0,-15.9645,27.41,-29.4214,-34.3446,11.6399,-58.2025,35.1494,0.0,-36.3289,0.0,12.357,45.3385,-28.7507,-42.0732,-69.5647,-68.2766,-61.4797,-53.0902,13.0837,0.0,0.0,37.8168,-46.2496,-14.2562,-45.197,-29.2824,-49.7711,-70.0298,-80.3105,-75.7664,-36.2053,0.0,16.1559,-37.3928,-31.4593,-65.7647,-61.4177,-48.7796,0.0,0.0,51.6295,48.8081,-18.3961,0.0,-8.8735,41.2657,71.1772,13.5682,13.7305,60.8263,-47.8765,34.396,0.0,-52.072,35.7861,-14.3756,0.0,-21.6255,42.3484,-14.1631,-38.6167,0.0,-65.6852,-21.6619,8.906,-62.3942,11.5666,17.4158,-20.0839,33.4553,-36.0907,-43.4864,-34.1787,-59.7272,-38.1581,20.5667,-41.4652],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-27.2391,-57.6932,-68.7825,-85.2506,-75.325,-29.5599,0.0,9.3214,-46.5158,-52.7763,-65.3997,-71.2248,-54.6403,0.0,0.0,51.587,47.6814,-39.3204,0.0,-15.9044,38.2912,76.2946,6.013,1.6773,51.7318,-43.9032,36.2367,0.0,-47.9288,33.2219,-22.1468,0.0,-37.443,46.4734,-23.0918,-44.7466,0.0,-71.2406,-6.8896,20.2147,-57.8754,12.6569,22.3198,-18.5947,36.8225,-44.2207,-29.2216,-31.5424,-55.0814,-38.1773,25.0538,-43.2384],"force":[-13.7437,-40.96,-87.4322,-92.9655,-85.3675,-1.1493,0.0,75.0749,-49.6552,-16.2016,-83.2958,-48.2006,-26.6034,0.0,0.0,66.1446,41.9745,-38.9163,0.0,-18.0919,65.2976,68.2462,21.0347,16.7503,78.9527,-94.2946,66.9401,0.0,-88.0154,68.3091,-20.1775,0.0,-23.4146,45.6816,-43.9045,-44.9348,0.0,-76.1448,-3.3662,32.7303,-86.8989,56.4072,34.0454,-14.8501,45.31,-33.2714,-56.3094,-19.3662,-72.3505,-18.1046,56.9496,-58.207],"direction":[-42.7167,-47.011,-59.0251,-65.6255,-69.4129,-68.84,0.0,18.1182,-18.2077,-17.9955,-53.6595,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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-41.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-43.2","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-58.2","detail":"Downward 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}