{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HKDU Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"9ea6c9d3-a0a9-462c-889a-9af23da68680","symbol":"HKDU","name":"UBS (LUX) FUND SOLUTIONS UBS MS","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Range pressure and compression, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional pressure and rotation."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":37,"displayedObservations":37,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Rollover warning","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","take":"The prior extension has started to roll over. Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"The current relationship is visible, but this ticker does not yet have a completed comparable outcome.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-07-24","price":18.030577},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":18.683001}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-07-31","price":18.683001},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":18.42}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[17.0141,17.3763,17.4707,17.5028,17.9156,18.011,18.121,18.8853,18.7636,18.528,18.899,19.368,18.504,18.175,18.029,17.978,18.444,19.073,18.724,18.579,18.988,19.336,19.235,18.806,18.512,17.482,17.557,17.262,17.139,17.176,17.1182,17.5298,18.0306,18.683,18.42,17.754,18.502],"consensus":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,98.576,52.6148,53.4923,84.5961,32.8039,0.0,73.7061,87.7851,-31.0956,-42.7537,-44.3633,-25.9987,32.7207,61.094,0.0,0.0,62.8733,51.3876,8.7087,-21.5261,-25.5465,-54.5854,-23.1425,-64.1443,-31.1369,-47.2239,-40.5847,0.0,43.4003,73.0027,14.4779,-36.8285,59.1919],"supportDates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,38.6533,47.0893,77.636,28.7948,0.0,80.7939,88.5109,-27.3735,-29.9859,-33.827,-8.3339,41.1532,68.8524,0.0,0.0,62.7777,49.1012,0.7524,-25.871,-21.2922,-55.2989,-6.0561,-72.2194,-12.6942,-53.5237,-35.7941,0.0,43.4337,76.4407,15.5111,-42.0517,54.8741],"force":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,96.7184,31.6998,22.421,90.5323,31.0493,0.0,52.9442,94.0478,-91.3738,-77.8244,-52.6574,-19.62,54.4212,61.8737,0.0,0.0,88.5954,64.4739,29.978,-65.7112,-23.982,-39.9783,-8.1103,-44.0852,-5.9676,-16.4472,-12.9325,0.0,64.7208,95.7105,30.0299,-70.8678,91.4601],"direction":[null,null,null,null,99.9028,83.5101,83.0038,88.3105,82.9952,0.0,80.4358,82.4823,-7.7065,-32.295,-50.4803,-50.7433,7.5831,51.6704,0.0,0.0,44.6096,44.6533,47.1546,-15.0002,-31.5261,-64.2036,-64.9934,-69.2435,-70.1922,-62.0076,-65.8112,0.0,28.1333,52.8538,45.0883,-6.5453,41.0777],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,100.0,100.0,16.6667,100.0,25.0,44.4444,70.0,81.8182,91.6667,38.4615,35.7143,73.3333,75.0,88.2353,38.8889,15.7895,60.0,90.4762,36.3636,82.6087,83.3333,100.0,3.8462,29.6296,50.0,24.1379,6.6667,74.1935,84.375,87.8788,32.3529,88.5714,88.8889],"confirmation":[54.6667,54.6667,54.6667,54.6667,76.7927,84.4121,84.2682,95.3577,37.9029,39.3266,90.8452,96.271,58.8217,82.9446,82.6096,76.3944,56.3368,87.4556,8.6312,6.8973,88.9048,84.8777,8.3077,34.0355,76.192,85.0113,8.4437,87.7918,54.8111,82.0777,80.2174,32.2943,82.5374,92.0005,32.3338,58.0762,44.64],"persistence":[null,null,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,0.7103,23.6632,23.2401,7.7007,33.444,45.4651,12.7818,3.1517,13.081,13.9233,26.5745,36.9075,23.5514,17.9182,44.5247,44.2045,11.8258,1.9957,37.7418,35.241,28.4611,22.6882,38.3891,17.8482,34.2553,8.1979,22.1793,28.6949,27.0816,13.407,42.5552,41.4448,7.496],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":59.2,"control":54.9,"force":91.5,"direction":41.1,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":7.5,"intensity":88.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+59.2","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+54.9","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+91.5","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+41.1","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"57.8","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.7%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"19.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"56%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[17.0141,17.3763,17.4707,17.5028,17.9156,18.011,18.121,18.8853,18.7636,18.528,18.899,19.368,18.504,18.175,18.029,17.978,18.444,19.073,18.724,18.579,18.988,19.336,19.235,18.806,18.512,17.482,17.557,17.262,17.139,17.176,17.1182,17.5298,18.0306,18.683,18.42,17.754,18.502],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,17.3424,17.4639,17.5834,17.8201,17.9917,18.0892,18.2364,18.4422,18.4534,18.4028,18.3348,18.2699,18.3016,18.4418,18.4931,18.5088,18.5959,18.7305,18.8222,18.8192,18.7634,18.5304,18.3534,18.155,17.9703,17.8258,17.6972,17.6668,17.7329,17.9056,17.9992,17.9546,18.0541],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,17.8603,17.8837,17.8944,17.9006,17.9409,18.0247,18.0765,18.1137,18.1785,18.2642,18.3362,18.371,18.3814,18.3148,18.2586,18.1848,18.1074,18.0384,17.9702,17.9376,17.9445,17.9992,18.0303,18.0099,18.0463],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,19.1486,19.3009,19.5628,19.5472,19.497,19.4445,19.3956,19.3829,19.4687,19.4821,19.4757,19.4661,19.5427,19.5785,19.5275,19.5006,19.578,19.6365,19.6951,19.749,19.7889,19.7753,19.6284,19.5984,19.6418,19.663,19.662,19.6671],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,16.7691,16.7877,16.7465,16.8158,16.8651,16.8973,16.9221,16.9684,16.9823,17.0214,17.0604,17.2674,17.3869,17.5274,17.7087,17.7953,17.6649,17.5501,17.3292,17.1128,16.9377,16.7732,16.7363,16.719,16.7263,16.7442,16.7229,16.7236],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"volatility","eyebrow":"Risk geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range pressure","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,2.0441,2.0398,2.1863,2.2635,2.2872,2.353,2.3227,2.2721,2.3918,2.3199,2.3883,2.4188,2.7992,2.6191,2.5956,2.5792,2.4177,2.2767,2.2561,2.288,2.2998,2.5038,2.7296,2.7396],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9},{"label":"Envelope width","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,13.2501,13.9281,15.5128,15.0225,14.4764,14.0182,13.621,13.2844,13.6424,13.482,13.2214,11.9713,11.6753,11.0555,9.7692,9.1448,10.2736,11.2217,12.7805,14.3035,15.5263,16.4282,15.9058,15.8566,16.0332,16.034,16.1556,16.1772],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.7}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"participation","eyebrow":"Participation","title":"Activity pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,207.3615,479.1684,731.6683,2.9051,80.034,223.4035,152.1903,25.8278,102.8885,20.068,9.9443,44.4921,70.3035,1280.5441,24.094,54.8261,37.4262,5.1322,0.0,7.4146,0.0091,16.5781,2.7099,0.0,55.3904,11.6206,29.2527,185.4865,161.3493,93.1567],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative balance","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,135.0,95.1482,65.0,65.1237,68.4716,65.0,65.0,65.0,65.0,65.5593,65.8225,65.0,65.0,135.0,135.0,132.4373,130.6545,130.4106,130.4106,130.7604,130.76,129.9991,130.1048,130.1048,132.2873,132.7232,133.7922,126.3706,119.5177,123.6501],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Typical activity","values":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"directional","eyebrow":"Trend quality","title":"Directional strength and control","description":"Directional pressure shows which side controls the tape while strength remains direction-neutral.","reason":"Selected because directional control or trend strength is materially changing.","series":[{"label":"Trend strength","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,24.3792,23.9293,24.0665,24.028,24.0844,22.9891,21.8481,21.6086,20.7341,19.5779,19.0944],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"Positive direction","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,29.8613,28.0111,24.336,24.304,29.2784,26.9193,25.5202,26.7829,35.2168,33.892,31.2671,29.1223,24.744,25.6324,24.427,22.9903,23.8778,23.6249,30.1134,36.7693,41.4092,35.8234,31.6574,33.1983],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.6},{"label":"Negative direction","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,17.0289,15.9738,22.1646,19.3773,17.2195,15.8321,16.4658,15.2935,13.248,12.7496,19.5072,24.1033,33.5287,33.1329,35.2095,39.0202,38.5705,39.2211,35.889,31.9482,28.4832,29.6876,28.9035,25.6594],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.6}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"impulse","eyebrow":"Price impulse","title":"Acceleration, deceleration and rollover","description":"The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.","reason":"Selected because the latest impulse is unusually active or is approaching a change of 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