{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ELECTCAST Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"9fcc5877-9e5a-49f5-8487-cc421f526d80","symbol":"ELECTCAST","name":"Electrosteel Castings Limited","exchange":"NSI","country":"IN","asset_type":"equity","currency":"INR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Building Products & Equipment"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":19.1,"averageExpectedMove":25.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":5.6,"medianReturn":4.6,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":10.2,"medianReturn":2.4,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":46.2,"averageReturn":26.0,"medianReturn":-2.1,"confidenceLow":23.2,"confidenceHigh":70.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":37.5,"averageExpectedMove":37.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.4,"medianReturn":-12.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-28.0,"medianReturn":-28.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-58.5,"medianReturn":-58.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-17.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-26.1,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-26.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-34.6,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-37.5,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-37.2,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-33.9,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-28.0,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-30.7,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-38.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-39.9,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-38.3,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-45.4,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-45.1,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-48.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-44.4,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-48.1,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-55.4,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-56.1,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-59.8,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-55.8,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-58.5,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"accumulation","zoneContext":"Price is within accumulation conditions, but the completed tape has not yet confirmed a recovery. The zone is a watch area rather than a directional signal.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":46.7,"averageReturn":8.8,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 46.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 8.8% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 25.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 8.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 11.8% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."},{"eyebrow":"Position management","title":"Size for the path, not only the eventual long reward","tone":"positive","finding":"Across 1 completed accumulation cycles, the average gross long opportunity was 229.5%, while the average adverse move was 4.7%.","approach":"Scale exposure only as confirmation improves, and keep enough risk capacity to survive the ticker's observed adverse path.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-10","price":82.669998},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":81.989998},{"date":"2026-06-19","price":81.339996}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-06","price":206.916458},{"date":"2024-10-04","price":196.514938}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-09-13","price":227.66037}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[214.8532,211.1855,206.9165,227.6604,217.0025,212.6053,196.5149,199.453,188.174,168.14,167.7456,148.9933,142.2495,142.8904,150.4229,163.9005,157.6694,139.7157,136.7382,140.5636,124.2761,125.0648,117.3154,126.4944,118.2422,101.5307,99.9138,91.4546,100.5843,94.4025,102.5167,96.8574,94.7574,93.5349,99.1645,102.2209,93.1602,87.4813,105.2083,105.0406,101.1462,105.1885,126.4944,120.4704,131.1874,124.0986,121.5155,114.5351,113.9534,106.9731,99.2927,98.54,103.26,97.38,97.98,98.18,100.17,94.87,96.94,93.89,96.18,92.94,91.25,88.44,80.63,75.33,73.98,69.0,71.52,73.45,76.1,76.75,70.28,76.47,69.85,71.12,72.25,73.07,70.5,69.12,63.42,71.5,74.83,80.24,79.97,82.67,80.75,79.29,81.99,92.29,81.96,78.13,77.13,74.0,71.87,81.34,78.6,77.83,76.3154,73.6685,71.2093,69.7772,71.0908,70.74],"consensus":[48.6552,0.0,0.0,62.1578,0.0,0.0,-36.6618,0.0,-44.4956,-62.4941,-34.8807,-69.3303,-55.4571,-38.9361,-17.3504,20.7989,-19.0896,-55.4545,-43.5368,-21.6605,-65.8826,-28.4241,-57.0361,0.0,-46.0523,-67.0125,-33.3464,-59.4811,0.0,-50.049,0.0,-34.5113,-34.2783,-10.6654,0.0,0.0,-41.5642,-42.4752,45.3561,0.0,-10.5863,27.1715,67.4882,0.0,63.921,0.0,0.0,-22.3134,-9.019,-38.9775,-47.7821,-30.9256,0.0,-45.2137,-20.9573,-18.6624,-9.0417,-38.4189,0.0,-35.0684,0.0,-36.2552,-36.2866,-37.5713,-68.6863,-64.5472,-43.5901,-64.7752,-15.9369,-16.3358,0.0,0.0,-53.5265,28.1066,-56.0621,-12.3795,0.0,0.0,-27.2305,-27.9163,-55.8237,25.4049,29.9541,53.7707,28.021,40.5484,0.0,0.0,25.0998,65.0668,-23.6415,-16.3445,-19.4218,-35.5314,-17.66,27.7261,0.0,0.0,0.0,-32.7709,-32.0005,-41.0283,-18.613,-22.7079],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-53.1843,-27.1678,-25.151,-9.1358,-47.0057,0.0,-41.4275,0.0,-47.0201,-41.7313,-39.5857,-67.4612,-69.0403,-40.7537,-70.3618,-5.7289,-16.0809,0.0,0.0,-64.0289,23.5184,-54.761,-6.6806,0.0,0.0,-37.4806,-35.8975,-59.5927,25.5752,22.1852,44.3575,21.6582,30.6039,0.0,0.0,19.207,60.0172,-32.1781,-16.5722,-19.6559,-39.1823,-8.0329,31.6938,0.0,0.0,0.0,-34.0459,-30.3734,-46.0241,-16.5098,-22.2515],"force":[0.0,-41.1157,-5.4239,-4.6265,-5.7086,-37.0534,0.0,-28.8901,0.0,-32.799,-27.3535,-30.6109,-87.402,-62.3343,-23.0215,-56.6272,-25.1616,-16.3334,0.0,0.0,-61.8307,79.8247,-79.3348,-9.9203,0.0,0.0,-28.8924,-20.7745,-62.7753,68.2949,54.7353,81.9013,15.6851,47.7316,0.0,0.0,30.0099,84.5021,-66.7113,-33.6814,-25.357,-31.0811,-5.1648,30.0886,0.0,0.0,0.0,-30.8107,-23.8452,-29.1753,-0.2943,-15.1629],"direction":[0.0,-39.0315,-24.955,-21.2726,-19.47,-29.5807,0.0,-32.214,0.0,-26.4212,-36.445,-40.2409,-56.7181,-60.9929,-61.5235,-64.2104,-56.9593,-39.9622,0.0,0.0,-35.5923,3.5912,-40.9256,-34.8209,0.0,0.0,-14.329,-23.8963,-46.5508,5.4255,21.1318,44.4353,44.1042,46.7826,0.0,0.0,28.3273,56.9555,-16.8789,-3.7007,-14.9148,-34.5378,-37.5877,21.504,0.0,0.0,0.0,-32.7138,-39.6853,-43.7854,-34.522,-28.6188],"intensity":[36.5385,15.3846,1.9231,1.9231,5.7692,15.3846,11.5385,7.6923,5.7692,13.4615,15.3846,25.0,50.0,46.1538,28.8462,25.0,23.0769,25.0,15.3846,7.6923,42.3077,42.3077,46.1538,57.6923,13.4615,26.9231,32.6923,21.1538,48.0769,94.2308,67.3077,42.3077,7.6923,40.3846,15.3846,32.6923,48.0769,88.4615,90.3846,92.3077,13.4615,82.6923,32.6923,92.3077,32.6923,1.9231,9.6154,13.4615,40.3846,3.8462,3.8462,21.1538],"confirmation":[4.5638,82.222,51.4716,50.7787,48.9935,80.1216,5.0016,78.9367,3.9102,79.3323,79.2565,79.78,90.5687,88.5192,81.3652,88.3946,9.3706,30.3868,28.2136,3.4319,85.2215,56.7397,86.669,5.485,3.4283,2.9661,76.6082,76.5939,86.018,55.9249,78.4589,86.2074,76.6877,81.3459,6.2764,3.7634,76.2714,89.4906,35.0153,51.0885,74.3923,79.1788,50.7504,76.8839,24.9137,3.4302,1.6006,78.4075,78.0164,80.6917,50.8081,83.0435],"persistence":[62.5,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[39.1567,18.42,2.5352,5.9207,21.913,8.9186,13.4154,22.3021,36.2068,5.0164,28.0274,28.4875,15.6404,17.7245,28.2037,17.6121,41.6488,17.7784,30.2681,52.1391,9.7279,18.0278,17.1881,37.1814,21.4098,32.9644,22.3448,10.7921,21.1851,30.0351,22.7411,22.3382,35.9161,29.2464,42.0353,13.1265,13.4317,16.3125,22.9151,2.347,26.016,32.1425,39.6568,12.7945,14.6313,33.5001,34.6532,28.5658,28.353,25.2551,33.4212,24.4844],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-22.7,"control":-22.3,"force":-15.2,"direction":-28.6,"confirmation":83.0,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":24.5,"intensity":21.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-22.7","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-22.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-15.2","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-28.6","detail":"Downward 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