{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SP4S Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"a2d07f7f-c1ca-466a-9b30-39b955fe562b","symbol":"SP4S","name":"iShares S&P Mid Cap 400 Swap UCITS ETF USD Acc","exchange":"AMS","country":"NL","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Directional pressure and rotation."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":57,"displayedObservations":57,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.3,"averageExpectedMove":4.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-3.6,"medianReturn":-3.6,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":2.6,"medianReturn":2.6,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":7.1,"medianReturn":7.1,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":6.5,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":7.9,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":9.0,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":9.1,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 9.1% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 0.4% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":6.0906}],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-02-20","price":5.8752},{"date":"2026-04-24","price":5.9988}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-03-06","price":5.5969},{"date":"2026-05-15","price":5.9285}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[5.0322,5.0228,5.0962,5.1702,5.3086,5.2916,5.2916,5.3144,5.3454,5.2647,5.3169,5.2371,5.2371,5.3775,5.3742,5.2206,5.2206,5.2206,5.2206,5.2206,5.4804,5.4617,5.4617,5.476,5.5924,5.686,5.7118,5.636,5.8375,5.8424,5.8752,5.8376,5.5969,5.4679,5.4384,5.565,5.5846,5.7915,5.7679,5.9988,5.951,6.0906,5.9285,6.0136,6.1119,6.1242,6.2608,6.2139,6.197,6.3183,6.2347,6.2544,6.264,6.2145,6.3385,6.404,6.29],"consensus":[0.0,-100.0,72.3005,31.7647,82.5,40.654,52.8108,52.5238,72.6734,-22.5807,73.7685,-31.1292,0.0,78.216,58.5473,-51.9406,-19.8334,-26.2032,-25.9823,-16.0045,70.1026,24.1352,39.6485,31.0895,75.3792,86.296,58.8018,0.0,88.538,42.1167,62.7845,16.5012,-53.5925,-66.9432,-57.8851,19.0899,0.0,60.9239,15.1426,59.5942,29.4508,74.1828,0.0,57.3551,57.2338,18.404,71.3101,31.0116,30.5294,52.0687,11.4227,31.4827,46.2186,-24.1869,63.6929,58.4335,12.0176],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[24.5761,42.0547,23.3474,59.102,-22.277,70.9187,-25.044,0.0,74.0593,61.6289,-52.1333,-19.6056,-18.4263,-17.2794,-16.1714,67.3118,22.2512,35.2994,13.909,77.4226,89.5652,47.9974,0.0,91.8296,33.6461,55.0824,0.7556,-41.9082,-59.782,-52.1521,32.9517,0.0,67.1418,1.0575,60.5097,23.7558,73.3419,0.0,65.1243,63.9623,9.792,79.4268,24.5234,28.078,52.6206,15.0237,34.3039,52.6315,-15.8361,63.013,69.5858,22.6531],"force":[11.4109,10.44,43.5728,75.4236,-96.1244,84.3022,-71.4099,0.0,78.538,29.2976,-71.3143,-3.4857,-10.423,-10.4284,-0.0,84.718,28.8391,10.4375,9.2819,78.2744,94.7892,52.7869,0.0,99.6737,10.8254,60.1256,32.1961,-99.663,-92.1127,-62.5394,73.9324,0.0,65.9779,8.5673,54.3879,4.3086,88.0491,0.0,69.2925,43.3997,8.2098,65.29,2.1451,2.1363,34.6599,22.6799,10.0284,37.7878,-78.4683,84.5397,44.4189,47.0749],"direction":[96.218,95.3684,92.2618,86.219,-29.6035,69.5013,-9.3118,0.0,82.7366,75.9182,-37.8822,-31.7707,-46.3627,-47.0384,-27.2457,62.8523,64.1272,65.4839,66.3014,70.976,76.4933,75.446,0.0,76.8222,74.1482,73.486,69.2799,-34.0384,-57.149,-61.1127,35.9255,0.0,50.2078,48.1756,62.2666,60.0733,65.2394,0.0,39.9492,59.4255,47.2562,66.3338,62.1101,53.6117,63.8729,31.6661,43.5828,44.9114,-5.0419,49.5793,55.6984,25.1782],"intensity":[60.0,33.3333,57.1429,37.5,55.5556,40.0,54.5455,58.3333,100.0,35.7143,100.0,100.0,5.8824,11.1111,15.7895,100.0,47.619,22.7273,34.7826,87.5,88.0,69.2308,48.1481,96.4286,79.3103,26.6667,25.8065,96.875,90.9091,38.2353,68.5714,44.4444,97.2973,89.4737,94.8718,57.5,68.2927,83.3333,53.4884,90.9091,24.4444,63.0435,25.5319,10.4167,61.2245,48.0,13.7255,51.9231,26.9231,63.4615,78.8462,59.6154],"confirmation":[36.7685,83.7721,84.9794,91.5461,38.4539,91.9704,79.2817,26.1317,93.1023,85.7968,85.2085,51.1853,76.0226,75.9729,49.9645,90.9208,34.9565,79.8636,77.5458,92.1785,95.8237,86.7979,36.1076,96.6214,80.6528,88.1274,10.9047,86.7317,90.298,86.7524,37.8997,28.1568,87.5549,6.1654,86.8975,54.7347,92.1739,36.3366,86.599,85.7907,29.6275,90.5121,54.8031,54.2748,84.123,30.0661,77.3776,82.4353,55.9303,89.0274,86.1017,40.79],"persistence":[50.0,57.1429,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[29.6633,23.4951,23.314,4.7831,9.741,16.187,26.5193,46.2394,7.5894,5.5571,15.8565,0.4697,35.9182,35.9331,8.0023,14.4488,37.1956,29.5557,34.0111,3.8354,5.9552,20.2074,43.1867,5.2703,25.8267,16.0182,40.5017,21.4278,16.4413,21.0301,58.7861,9.3407,19.0677,42.0359,20.0539,34.8889,12.034,44.347,23.2945,12.5264,4.9121,14.1425,32.07,17.5276,21.1491,17.7541,2.6344,8.7264,29.0346,9.6035,19.3458,21.7827],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":12.0,"control":22.7,"force":47.1,"direction":25.2,"confirmation":40.8,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":21.8,"intensity":59.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+12.0","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+22.7","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+47.1","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+25.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"41/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"62.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"1.6%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"42.2","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"88%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[5.0322,5.0228,5.0962,5.1702,5.3086,5.2916,5.2916,5.3144,5.3454,5.2647,5.3169,5.2371,5.2371,5.3775,5.3742,5.2206,5.2206,5.2206,5.2206,5.2206,5.4804,5.4617,5.4617,5.476,5.5924,5.686,5.7118,5.636,5.8375,5.8424,5.8752,5.8376,5.5969,5.4679,5.4384,5.565,5.5846,5.7915,5.7679,5.9988,5.951,6.0906,5.9285,6.0136,6.1119,6.1242,6.2608,6.2139,6.197,6.3183,6.2347,6.2544,6.264,6.2145,6.3385,6.404,6.29],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,5.1098,5.1429,5.1699,5.1962,5.2233,5.2308,5.2465,5.2448,5.2434,5.2678,5.2871,5.275,5.2651,5.257,5.2504,5.245,5.2878,5.3194,5.3453,5.369,5.4097,5.4599,5.5057,5.5294,5.5854,5.6321,5.6763,5.7057,5.6859,5.6462,5.6085,5.6006,5.5977,5.6329,5.6574,5.7195,5.7616,5.8214,5.8409,5.8723,5.9159,5.9537,6.0096,6.0467,6.074,6.1185,6.1396,6.1605,6.1793,6.1857,6.2135,6.2481,6.2557],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow 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