{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ELIA Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"a2df2fed-a587-4cc9-849c-19fdcc3cc61a","symbol":"ELIA","name":"Elia Group SA/NV","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Regulated Electric"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":7.3,"averageExpectedMove":7.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":-0.4,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":95.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-1.8,"medianReturn":-1.8,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":1},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":25.0,"averageReturn":11.9,"sample":12},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 25.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 11.9% across 12 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.8 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.4% across 12 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 3.6 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-03-21","price":77.795502}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":133.856018},{"date":"2026-05-29","price":134.199997},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":123.099998}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-04-10","price":135.431961},{"date":"2026-05-22","price":136.515411},{"date":"2026-06-05","price":135.100006},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":139.5}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[91.9986,94.6451,99.6011,102.1031,98.5425,98.6387,91.71,92.576,93.2978,88.3418,85.8879,83.7226,83.2896,84.4925,85.2624,81.9423,77.0344,69.5283,71.068,73.5701,60.5786,64.7166,61.3966,62.5995,61.8778,62.7438,61.4928,61.974,71.9822,76.8901,77.7955,80.3727,86.6272,83.2291,88.0554,89.1881,92.5862,93.1279,88.0061,92.6847,91.6505,90.5178,91.5028,93.6697,96.3291,96.2798,94.9501,98.693,100.9584,99.2839,98.693,94.5069,98.2005,96.526,92.5862,93.4234,94.1129,96.6738,97.4125,102.6328,104.6027,105.0952,102.8298,102.0418,101.4508,101.7463,102.5343,101.5493,99.4809,105.4892,106.7696,110.611,112.3839,112.6794,111.5959,121.4455,124.0064,126.3703,132.3786,131.6891,129.7192,134.053,127.6508,125.3854,131.8861,135.432,137.5989,137.5989,138.6823,133.856,128.8327,136.5154,134.2,135.1,134.8,131.6,139.5,139.8,136.3,139.3,139.0,123.1,133.6,127.3],"consensus":[10.9147,40.1805,75.5539,68.5743,0.0,34.7971,-58.0886,-17.4166,0.0,-67.4077,-54.8009,-55.649,-35.9649,-10.4779,-12.5402,-58.2965,-76.4922,-83.1535,-21.9361,-11.1563,-85.9969,0.0,-62.3959,-24.0201,-36.0061,-15.5924,-25.8748,-23.1619,59.8387,62.9767,26.8841,63.9786,78.8578,41.9512,74.9585,59.4288,67.6327,38.5339,0.0,56.0576,0.0,0.0,36.6495,42.8076,51.9511,28.9085,0.0,66.2029,60.6002,0.0,8.1545,-39.5475,36.8684,-21.8934,-49.868,0.0,-16.4379,25.9053,35.1869,66.7589,61.6987,35.7523,0.0,0.0,-10.5169,0.0,23.6981,-12.7972,-31.073,54.4528,51.881,71.9617,48.0874,54.2564,17.522,80.3723,68.4875,64.9574,75.3562,23.7012,30.8003,74.4644,-22.8624,0.0,59.5959,49.8122,59.5723,40.935,55.9338,-21.7802,-43.1069,44.0652,-18.7505,30.4425,29.8549,-9.9797,59.5147,39.39,12.7041,46.7565,0.0,-73.0599,27.0015,-57.9114],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[55.2059,-18.6563,-43.9436,0.0,-7.0729,33.0114,32.6277,65.5821,63.3862,29.0487,0.0,0.0,-3.4594,0.0,30.6653,-14.5714,-27.4159,53.6506,56.6636,76.723,43.4239,54.6791,8.186,84.5009,69.6091,63.9261,76.0093,6.8823,23.6022,77.077,-21.4171,0.0,66.1532,58.4215,62.5288,36.9343,59.9572,-22.1698,-36.7985,51.8996,-12.0513,40.2325,32.0485,-3.5339,69.6043,42.86,17.0689,44.7615,0.0,-64.7539,38.7281,-52.4139],"force":[45.1271,-52.4309,-73.5043,0.0,-17.4981,36.8603,46.5568,89.4774,67.2748,18.5774,0.0,0.0,-36.0313,0.0,25.8589,-32.9606,-50.0842,75.1561,53.1235,84.4073,38.6374,47.6731,15.0538,92.4447,65.8457,59.4306,76.6421,15.88,1.4815,83.354,-81.6531,0.0,74.8417,46.6319,57.8224,25.6183,52.5706,-68.4369,-68.6757,67.3008,-51.4967,33.7784,32.5899,-7.751,70.7929,34.0378,6.0986,62.7732,0.0,-99.3941,70.1334,-74.0009],"direction":[10.0122,-3.7805,-39.7557,0.0,-26.3835,9.9592,29.9904,51.8764,55.7872,55.6814,0.0,0.0,-0.3581,0.0,14.1922,-3.6329,-21.673,40.5815,45.5276,57.6304,60.167,58.4758,51.46,67.0307,69.0926,70.0836,73.6913,71.195,62.0851,65.1288,-17.4792,0.0,41.212,42.2446,57.4435,56.4475,53.7379,-11.9913,-32.0532,18.5149,-3.0167,16.8711,25.3945,-27.0158,39.9279,39.2472,12.434,37.5962,0.0,-63.7425,17.2088,-52.7018],"intensity":[59.6154,15.3846,76.9231,30.7692,26.9231,30.7692,1.9231,84.6154,75.0,44.2308,23.0769,9.6154,11.5385,5.7692,1.9231,15.3846,71.1538,90.3846,73.0769,69.2308,78.8462,34.6154,25.0,96.1538,82.6923,46.1538,94.2308,46.1538,96.1538,75.0,94.2308,94.2308,92.3077,88.4615,21.1538,50.0,5.7692,78.8462,92.3077,98.0769,84.6154,63.4615,1.9231,61.5385,98.0769,3.8462,51.9231,50.0,34.6154,100.0,98.0769,78.8462],"confirmation":[79.7702,53.3192,84.7684,3.3859,50.7685,76.5153,79.6453,90.0732,87.8878,79.0195,31.9512,5.6988,26.9172,2.7649,75.5431,50.7909,78.5785,86.0681,84.5669,91.3345,83.171,85.155,30.6346,94.0241,89.8184,88.6336,92.1432,10.0221,54.6313,92.0597,35.5253,25.2243,87.4354,83.7118,86.9648,80.6934,85.735,33.6104,82.6696,82.6896,52.4336,77.6941,77.6035,26.7521,87.2347,80.3888,49.1308,83.4806,26.4749,92.3083,36.1142,87.1058],"persistence":[50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[60.2083,30.5291,24.2078,16.9623,38.0814,10.0018,30.322,16.4778,19.1089,31.9523,46.686,8.7995,38.0921,46.2409,18.7279,7.0823,23.0209,18.3888,21.2762,13.944,25.9554,22.7264,39.8917,9.6963,15.6927,17.5071,12.3216,37.9444,31.2635,11.9495,30.682,45.6278,5.9404,9.0693,19.3617,29.2622,20.1103,8.7449,27.134,34.4749,29.5009,1.0553,29.8435,37.9693,12.7271,21.9532,11.7004,24.5239,10.0897,13.1457,33.1781,18.512],"volumeParticipation":false,"latest":{"consensus":-57.9,"control":-52.4,"force":-74.0,"direction":-52.7,"confirmation":87.1,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":18.5,"intensity":78.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-57.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-52.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-74.0","detail":"Downward 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