{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GBDC Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"a44f4079-07ac-4b32-896a-babbf75dacf8","symbol":"GBDC","name":"Golub Capital BDC Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Asset Management"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":22,"completedEpisodes":20,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":5.0,"averageExpectedMove":5.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":22,"expectedCount":16,"expectedPercent":72.7,"averageReturn":1.2,"medianReturn":1.8,"confidenceLow":51.8,"confidenceHigh":86.8,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":12,"sample":20,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":1.7,"medianReturn":1.8,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":78.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":19,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":68.4,"averageReturn":5.1,"medianReturn":2.2,"confidenceLow":46.0,"confidenceHigh":84.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":22},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":22},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":22},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":22},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":22},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":21},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":20},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":20},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":20},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":20},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":20},{"week":14,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":19},{"week":25,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":19}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":4,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":8.2,"averageExpectedMove":8.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.3,"medianReturn":-4.8,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":12,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.7,"medianReturn":-5.2,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-8.2,"medianReturn":-4.8,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":4},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":4},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":4},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":4},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":4},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":4},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":4},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":4},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":37.5,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 37.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.3% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 8 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.6 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.9% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-03-07","price":13.140883},{"date":"2025-04-04","price":12.144169},{"date":"2025-08-01","price":13.211524},{"date":"2025-08-15","price":13.229474},{"date":"2025-09-05","price":13.23845}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-03-28","price":13.333231},{"date":"2025-07-11","price":13.642335},{"date":"2025-08-29","price":13.391028},{"date":"2026-05-01","price":13.451034}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[12.0699,12.3034,12.196,12.4687,12.3034,12.3612,12.5348,12.4687,12.7579,12.6256,12.4604,12.7083,12.7248,12.6422,13.0223,12.8477,12.8292,12.8548,12.9997,13.0508,12.7013,13.1276,13.281,13.4089,13.2554,13.5793,13.4941,13.3577,13.1409,12.8261,13.2196,13.3332,12.1442,11.9606,12.354,12.625,12.5289,12.6425,13.1496,13.0709,13.2983,13.2196,13.1846,13.1128,12.9602,13.2564,13.6423,13.8577,13.7859,13.2115,13.3282,13.2295,13.2654,13.391,13.2385,13.2474,13.2182,12.7201,12.757,12.2958,12.8401,13.0983,12.9969,12.8032,12.7755,12.6556,12.9969,13.1629,13.0522,12.7676,12.853,12.872,12.9858,13.1091,12.9763,12.7012,11.9045,11.9803,11.525,11.3733,11.4966,11.6673,12.0377,11.95,12.3789,12.3886,13.2853,12.9539,13.451,12.8272,12.7297,12.564,12.8272,12.7103,12.9539,12.35,12.59,12.99,12.92,13.06,12.78,12.83,13.17,13.26],"consensus":[0.0,29.4831,-8.1142,41.1082,-12.057,10.8364,40.6137,0.0,53.1736,0.0,-20.1298,41.4922,16.2455,0.0,59.3643,0.0,0.0,21.9395,30.9269,29.7975,-34.6733,53.1095,47.57,48.287,14.997,59.4796,11.6135,0.0,-24.9657,-47.0789,27.2608,15.3304,-71.9851,-41.7648,0.0,0.0,-9.251,16.7536,53.2842,13.4982,40.7365,18.7508,0.0,0.0,-18.0266,36.5134,55.2898,49.2715,26.584,-32.2357,8.3776,-23.872,0.0,24.5907,-13.2309,0.0,0.0,-62.9796,-16.7251,-71.0428,16.816,32.2614,0.0,-15.1588,-18.0145,-28.9096,29.1338,34.516,0.0,-32.844,0.0,0.0,10.8847,25.2162,0.0,-40.8279,-70.2514,-28.59,-71.8372,-60.9364,-22.9572,0.0,23.4524,-12.5025,43.0616,18.0708,69.2992,11.4569,62.3518,-11.0921,0.0,-16.0662,16.3005,0.0,29.3984,-40.3858,9.3747,39.4071,0.0,23.6423,-11.8519,0.0,39.3299,25.6342],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,28.0862,-12.3375,0.0,0.0,-56.9585,-7.1767,-68.1528,25.0202,29.1214,0.0,-25.6926,-20.9318,-21.4251,36.4439,35.5517,0.0,-36.3534,0.0,0.0,13.261,21.3764,0.0,-44.2209,-65.6915,-22.7799,-69.5828,-61.3367,-18.4158,0.0,18.6042,-24.4456,37.5205,10.647,65.7845,0.6933,65.6977,-23.1805,0.0,-15.3339,29.6322,0.0,31.8387,-45.0815,17.0256,43.2028,0.0,16.1447,-19.9611,0.0,39.4086,26.1652],"force":[0.0,32.2519,-20.1166,0.0,0.0,-89.1177,-9.3336,-89.9762,68.8075,58.8662,0.0,-21.0154,-13.4236,-32.0189,52.2273,41.1771,0.0,-61.7772,0.0,0.0,19.8043,28.4651,0.0,-56.861,-91.9892,-3.3219,-85.774,-53.3962,-14.2461,0.0,57.2706,-15.4537,65.9231,9.8754,89.0705,25.8254,60.178,-50.6064,0.0,-24.4982,19.638,0.0,30.589,-58.3428,24.2691,49.7132,0.0,18.2708,-27.603,0.0,53.082,18.9524],"direction":[0.0,15.1236,-9.3335,0.0,0.0,-51.1909,-46.2509,-60.8217,29.697,16.8465,0.0,-1.063,-17.9597,-35.2424,4.2842,28.5744,0.0,-8.1669,0.0,0.0,1.7977,27.2839,0.0,-25.498,-59.9355,-58.0242,-64.4588,-65.8648,-54.7211,0.0,4.8373,-3.2547,33.0645,32.4089,59.1935,50.3885,60.0806,-30.9476,0.0,-10.8801,1.3196,0.0,25.7591,-22.1928,10.008,27.7076,0.0,36.0477,-8.6666,0.0,29.417,29.8001],"intensity":[15.3846,19.2308,25.0,1.9231,57.6923,90.3846,86.5385,86.5385,90.3846,84.6154,9.6154,30.7692,3.8462,57.6923,65.3846,61.5385,15.3846,65.3846,44.2308,13.4615,46.1538,28.8462,25.0,55.7692,96.1538,69.2308,80.7692,46.1538,51.9231,40.3846,92.3077,63.4615,76.9231,26.9231,98.0769,86.5385,86.5385,96.1538,96.1538,28.8462,44.2308,32.6923,34.6154,92.3077,65.3846,65.3846,5.7692,61.5385,50.0,19.2308,59.6154,32.6923],"confirmation":[25.3885,76.0492,72.4573,0.76,24.8154,89.0418,6.6945,91.3547,35.8426,79.1823,25.5418,50.4289,73.5803,77.4599,55.2486,79.2323,28.4964,79.3384,27.557,24.9299,49.0521,76.2267,26.0479,81.5019,91.2124,54.3068,91.447,87.2638,31.9875,8.6353,53.9426,49.9364,82.5609,73.646,90.8318,8.2034,87.8353,33.8384,25.4085,73.4093,50.7296,48.5351,77.4066,81.3992,28.139,80.8665,48.0939,75.5161,28.6646,0.8126,81.0035,83.9912],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[47.044,20.2541,11.6777,4.2499,6.6426,17.858,39.4941,14.4387,51.6603,26.3328,38.1869,55.4968,3.0282,32.2095,14.5669,25.5188,39.8974,34.7129,27.9427,38.2506,19.8986,35.4219,33.7302,16.7707,14.8402,35.679,14.0764,19.5272,34.2482,37.0257,35.2311,54.3264,28.0548,39.8853,15.1378,43.49,18.1749,45.442,40.3978,30.4546,54.566,11.1074,11.4947,3.3542,30.2135,9.4638,7.6763,36.6138,31.3113,24.8066,16.4764,18.5233],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":25.6,"control":26.2,"force":19.0,"direction":29.8,"confirmation":84.0,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":18.5,"intensity":32.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+25.6","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+26.2","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+19.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+29.8","detail":"Upward 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