{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GATX Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"a4abadc6-3e7e-4a22-9f5b-3e175b559881","symbol":"GATX","name":"GATX Corporation","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Rental & Leasing Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":24,"completedEpisodes":24,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":8.7,"averageExpectedMove":10.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":24,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":54.2,"averageReturn":1.3,"medianReturn":0.4,"confidenceLow":35.1,"confidenceHigh":72.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":24,"expectedCount":17,"expectedPercent":70.8,"averageReturn":5.0,"medianReturn":4.7,"confidenceLow":50.8,"confidenceHigh":85.1,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":22,"expectedCount":16,"expectedPercent":72.7,"averageReturn":9.5,"medianReturn":11.2,"confidenceLow":51.8,"confidenceHigh":86.8,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":24},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":24},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":24},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":24},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":24},{"week":6,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":24},{"week":7,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":24},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":24},{"week":9,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":24},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":24},{"week":11,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":24},{"week":12,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":24},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":24},{"week":14,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":24},{"week":15,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":23},{"week":16,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":23},{"week":17,"averageReturn":6.2,"sample":23},{"week":18,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":23},{"week":19,"averageReturn":7.2,"sample":23},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":23},{"week":21,"averageReturn":6.3,"sample":23},{"week":22,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":23},{"week":23,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":23},{"week":24,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":22},{"week":25,"averageReturn":7.4,"sample":22},{"week":26,"averageReturn":9.5,"sample":22}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":12.7,"averageExpectedMove":12.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.7,"medianReturn":-3.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.9,"medianReturn":-9.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-10.8,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-12.7,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-11.6,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-9.8,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-7.4,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.8,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":1},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":31.6,"averageReturn":5.7,"sample":19},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 31.6% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 5.7% across 19 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.9% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-02-27","price":182.83075},{"date":"2026-05-15","price":172.024358}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-04-10","price":192.84621},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":184.63}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[136.3874,136.9503,128.5256,135.2518,134.5695,129.9497,126.3435,129.7742,130.2518,134.3161,134.6962,149.043,147.6883,157.4932,159.998,156.7525,157.7953,151.1439,152.034,150.7429,146.6933,151.3102,163.7229,161.8547,161.796,161.7764,158.4116,163.9968,151.9609,151.0675,152.0787,153.2371,143.1352,145.3048,144.4311,142.3106,146.424,143.2334,147.6511,141.6528,156.3296,154.1796,151.0086,150.6439,152.7433,156.9421,155.72,151.7873,151.2649,147.0858,149.0866,154.1528,164.0584,165.8917,165.2313,167.3504,170.2069,175.0539,173.946,167.3185,170.1575,159.4645,155.1517,153.4009,155.5474,155.31,158.1984,165.4886,166.6063,171.5136,171.9504,169.5778,174.601,178.1649,182.0167,180.5872,187.0598,190.6634,197.0764,182.8307,178.2111,167.87,164.0842,166.9733,173.6483,192.8462,197.7677,197.419,195.6158,185.7329,172.0244,169.0356,168.4478,170.4204,173.9173,177.17,182.26,173.67,180.14,178.48,184.63,178.87,177.71,180.64],"consensus":[22.6467,23.7907,-48.7929,34.4081,0.0,-41.4318,-37.2868,0.0,-11.9897,31.6943,12.692,69.9288,22.0407,73.996,45.7827,17.3713,31.3978,-25.2244,9.6122,0.0,-31.2409,29.4017,67.0703,21.4791,33.7129,27.0848,-15.2934,48.6441,-52.2808,-17.6316,-9.5602,-15.696,-60.306,0.0,-34.6056,-36.9616,15.696,-31.3417,16.3325,-42.1728,56.6183,13.4484,-11.0443,0.0,14.8887,39.9572,10.1435,-16.8705,0.0,-43.4425,0.0,29.7875,65.27,43.709,29.282,44.408,48.4995,60.7486,34.645,-17.8742,25.0841,-55.9042,-52.1473,-31.5228,-13.1587,-17.2597,11.1773,47.8808,29.3698,52.8172,29.6952,10.318,48.1187,55.1407,53.8139,23.9872,62.2543,58.9056,68.9644,-25.3961,-26.4328,-58.1001,-54.0547,-27.3576,16.9996,68.3272,48.9786,29.2105,24.5133,-30.1996,-61.375,-42.9534,-35.3671,-14.9393,0.0,17.3473,38.1314,-27.0399,31.2075,0.0,33.7778,-16.5984,-12.9603,23.0258],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[70.1447,40.6675,22.6189,41.6357,45.7219,62.1522,34.071,-26.0895,26.4548,-48.2099,-51.5086,-20.8402,-1.7908,-10.8814,12.076,46.6357,26.2158,51.2249,24.2441,5.7788,47.1897,62.1729,52.5091,18.3934,60.9541,62.7911,65.355,-31.3994,-22.4162,-55.9015,-52.961,-25.2432,28.6645,63.4073,45.4033,20.7665,17.4861,-25.8292,-54.0521,-40.9989,-31.5214,-4.4365,0.0,15.3456,33.3831,-29.8659,32.0082,0.0,37.3362,-20.7881,-13.9918,29.3566],"force":[73.8697,30.8435,5.0897,33.5121,47.1998,59.4733,4.0393,-57.2594,22.2598,-94.0431,-57.5058,-20.384,-14.0343,-2.8422,31.3818,67.9238,23.8812,60.6595,11.4416,13.1628,49.8575,49.7008,51.054,8.5829,67.7016,47.9754,80.647,-82.0781,-45.0324,-73.5427,-53.3506,-0.0004,47.5287,98.199,43.4257,4.1955,3.8048,-70.7539,-92.4857,-33.2435,-17.5877,-10.3734,0.0,33.1349,59.2287,-47.9281,50.9003,0.0,44.9175,-45.0973,-17.4244,32.0635],"direction":[53.5562,56.3747,54.1773,55.3591,52.6022,60.0553,57.1623,-19.647,25.535,-37.4555,-49.0496,-51.6877,-45.5741,-34.8473,4.2815,34.9873,36.8948,49.0354,48.9634,32.2776,47.9384,50.9895,57.2765,53.6446,59.8493,62.2724,64.7447,-21.952,-17.7377,-49.5823,-55.8075,-49.3157,18.1383,52.613,57.0311,56.7287,52.7715,-6.227,-47.5222,-52.1226,-52.4616,-45.023,0.0,8.3581,28.4887,-8.89,16.2263,0.0,21.754,-8.5462,-8.5929,9.335],"intensity":[82.6923,55.7692,9.6154,9.6154,19.2308,53.8462,3.8462,69.2308,21.1538,84.6154,84.6154,69.2308,19.2308,19.2308,38.4615,75.0,50.0,57.6923,48.0769,30.7692,69.2308,36.5385,75.0,7.6923,71.1538,76.9231,67.3077,98.0769,92.3077,88.4615,84.6154,28.8462,69.2308,100.0,100.0,36.5385,40.3846,92.3077,92.3077,96.1538,3.8462,21.1538,55.7692,23.0769,51.9231,78.8462,57.6923,42.3077,51.9231,46.1538,75.0,17.3077],"confirmation":[89.0742,81.6411,54.0678,81.9207,83.5225,87.3793,55.4957,33.6529,75.92,87.1689,84.8602,77.9106,6.5492,50.5142,50.4255,83.9517,77.2791,85.1648,77.0292,5.4634,83.4651,85.3721,85.1562,31.2662,88.1072,86.4575,90.4796,37.1125,77.0865,87.0962,85.2927,53.2863,32.7287,90.8501,83.5584,54.047,53.2333,56.2997,88.6997,81.4789,78.8342,6.3822,5.6297,74.0628,80.9174,77.2463,78.5744,25.2231,79.0942,30.606,72.2676,44.64],"persistence":[25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[16.5131,28.1393,35.3379,27.7249,22.4745,18.8869,31.745,8.5629,13.1534,21.8079,23.8558,33.7675,43.1141,29.2847,25.1862,25.4568,34.4114,23.4685,34.8859,30.0405,23.1704,17.4042,22.9104,37.9626,18.856,20.5304,15.5147,32.0746,32.9247,20.8801,22.9703,35.6976,38.8063,15.6163,25.4836,35.336,37.2758,19.0245,18.9481,28.3544,32.1859,40.2452,8.7406,30.7174,28.2456,32.9354,23.0089,13.7777,1.4337,42.2132,13.3574,11.0873],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":23.0,"control":29.4,"force":32.1,"direction":9.3,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":11.1,"intensity":17.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+23.0","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+29.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+32.1","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+9.3","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"52.4","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.6%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.5","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"43%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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