{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GXPD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"a6b1f78c-51a5-44e6-8317-35b93456852b","symbol":"GXPD","name":"GLOBAL X PURECAP MSCI CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY ETF","exchange":"NYSEARCA","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":57,"displayedObservations":57,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","headline":"The upward price response is leading Market Dynamics","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":3.6,"averageExpectedMove":3.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":2.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":1.9,"confidenceLow":20.8,"confidenceHigh":93.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":2.3,"medianReturn":2.3,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough 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Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":5.4,"averageExpectedMove":5.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":0.8,"medianReturn":0.8,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-2.2,"medianReturn":-2.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":1},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.9% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 1.0% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 11.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":26.8541},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":26.2573}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-04-24","price":26.787},{"date":"2026-07-17","price":25.94}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[24.9921,23.9381,24.7505,25.3833,25.7201,25.6696,25.9988,26.309,26.7701,26.4238,26.1361,25.2629,25.742,26.241,26.8998,26.464,25.742,24.8676,26.2211,26.5038,26.6027,26.9024,27.0895,26.209,27.7316,27.1495,27.33,26.8968,25.69,25.1074,25.52,25.35,25.03,24.27,23.71,23.15,23.8282,25.1527,26.8541,26.787,26.8212,27.2586,26.4498,26.989,27.3983,25.641,25.8407,26.0504,25.4049,26.1394,26.2573,25.94,24.31,26.3684,27.0668,26.56,26.52],"consensus":[0.0,-73.0895,58.0826,23.4729,69.7168,30.102,54.0787,62.8812,56.8315,11.9432,0.0,-62.0021,10.085,34.6981,63.5343,0.0,-38.1494,-60.2311,30.0995,27.3508,34.7438,38.2849,33.4952,-39.3496,64.2243,0.0,38.1715,0.0,-57.5968,-61.5368,0.0,-27.52,-36.1453,-67.7868,-67.5023,-71.995,-11.1334,35.5761,58.8971,36.1675,37.8504,48.033,-18.479,42.9735,38.4824,-54.1917,0.0,0.0,-37.1759,14.4372,14.7675,-17.9786,-65.2016,45.2733,42.5232,0.0,17.8424],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[16.174,48.9871,60.9288,46.4373,6.5218,0.0,-49.4963,20.7618,43.1102,53.0641,0.0,-41.3331,-52.6195,48.3984,37.4774,37.6803,37.5956,31.7703,-37.5082,74.2997,0.0,39.2868,0.0,-46.8345,-56.5617,0.0,-14.0254,-25.2858,-67.4098,-61.8104,-68.61,-0.9618,39.4295,61.6128,35.7849,36.6895,50.4113,-18.9773,42.6416,42.398,-49.3942,0.0,0.0,-31.4717,13.1248,15.2257,-24.2603,-61.6684,47.6295,48.5388,0.0,11.4801],"force":[2.9882,40.5498,53.7066,46.9669,51.9351,0.0,-94.4776,37.956,39.8597,77.9874,0.0,-72.347,-84.8747,45.1453,20.3285,26.4123,26.8489,17.3019,-82.8777,62.2602,0.0,46.6723,0.0,-88.5804,-77.0288,0.0,-17.9953,-38.6203,-84.051,-81.5828,-85.2891,-29.1623,59.3404,64.8478,14.739,19.9764,32.9985,-61.5646,57.542,24.5971,-94.398,0.0,0.0,-45.7668,21.1251,16.3687,-24.1746,-92.2081,82.6267,39.8001,0.0,9.5244],"direction":[65.3868,69.5613,71.6658,75.7567,63.7663,0.0,-53.0978,22.0248,21.3975,65.1768,0.0,-10.084,-51.3275,1.5605,20.7934,37.3388,47.2414,47.0332,-10.3625,54.1123,0.0,30.8248,0.0,-47.7654,-56.157,0.0,-49.7457,-46.7884,-56.6005,-63.9498,-66.3678,-53.7391,14.1976,51.5431,51.9109,51.9442,56.054,-12.8659,32.9466,43.9254,-30.9559,0.0,0.0,-37.5587,11.16,13.1,-6.3737,-49.9491,15.8994,37.5935,0.0,31.0549],"intensity":[40.0,33.3333,42.8571,87.5,33.3333,10.0,90.9091,33.3333,38.4615,57.1429,26.6667,62.5,100.0,100.0,89.4737,5.0,28.5714,40.9091,82.6087,100.0,44.0,53.8462,22.2222,100.0,86.2069,13.3333,6.4516,31.25,63.6364,64.7059,40.0,52.7778,91.8919,100.0,82.0513,2.5,21.9512,66.6667,37.2093,77.2727,97.7778,73.913,12.766,50.0,75.5102,10.0,11.7647,96.1538,100.0,100.0,36.5385,28.8462],"confirmation":[54.3519,84.9705,87.8721,86.0438,13.0371,31.7735,89.021,31.2792,79.1325,88.931,33.3162,81.2015,88.141,55.4778,76.3839,78.8193,79.9132,78.2512,81.9465,88.3384,32.2101,80.4569,29.5409,87.5392,88.2397,34.559,76.7217,79.8074,90.1932,90.1166,91.4951,8.9454,80.0499,86.9871,78.9264,79.5851,82.8761,32.6302,82.2006,79.8315,86.6398,2.9103,24.8209,80.245,72.8437,72.7674,51.1796,89.7414,83.5899,81.4328,30.0882,44.64],"persistence":[50.0,57.1429,62.5,75.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[34.4144,21.3276,14.8987,19.6168,38.3408,14.6382,16.4053,52.457,33.1996,14.6517,47.8481,19.0747,19.3002,53.866,10.6404,26.0356,30.6806,27.1526,0.7948,13.4259,19.057,3.5955,39.041,20.5841,18.6455,49.3116,35.274,19.906,8.2234,15.7888,13.8679,41.4432,25.9059,20.5071,31.9033,31.0161,25.6678,15.3541,8.4307,12.9532,20.1623,27.7772,36.6715,30.4514,18.8306,16.6117,0.5749,11.8752,11.1342,12.4348,30.9731,40.0778],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":17.8,"control":11.5,"force":9.5,"direction":31.1,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":40.1,"intensity":28.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+17.8","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+11.5","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+9.5","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+31.1","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.4","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.1%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"16.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"77%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[24.9921,23.9381,24.7505,25.3833,25.7201,25.6696,25.9988,26.309,26.7701,26.4238,26.1361,25.2629,25.742,26.241,26.8998,26.464,25.742,24.8676,26.2211,26.5038,26.6027,26.9024,27.0895,26.209,27.7316,27.1495,27.33,26.8968,25.69,25.1074,25.52,25.35,25.03,24.27,23.71,23.15,23.8282,25.1527,26.8541,26.787,26.8212,27.2586,26.4498,26.989,27.3983,25.641,25.8407,26.0504,25.4049,26.1394,26.2573,25.94,24.31,26.3684,27.0668,26.56,26.52],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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impulse","title":"Acceleration, deceleration and rollover","description":"The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.","reason":"Selected because the latest impulse is unusually active or is approaching a change of 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